Member Info for Okehurst1

‘From 4am on 24 October, arrivals into England who are considered fully vaccinated, along with most under 18s, who have not been in a red list country in the last 10 days will be able to take a lateral flow test on or before day 2 of their arrival, instead of a PCR test. This change will cut the costs of tests in time for travellers returning from half-term breaks and these tests can be booked from 22 October.

Passengers will need to take a photo of their lateral flow test result and send it back to their private testing provider for verification. Anyone who tests positive will need to self-isolate and take a free NHS confirmatory PCR test’

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/summary-of-updates-to-international-travel-october-2021

Yeah clear sky to £4

They let it run 10p then suppress them repeat

It’s not the MM’s acting for themselves of course it’s their clients trying to close out

Classic Short Squeeze going on

£4 agree, it’s coming

Tricky for the shorts trying to close without pushing up the price, as you infer it’s not about the fundamentals of the business in play - fully - it’s technical positions

Axe,
Agree, the Shorts are closing out, serious pressure on them

Do they close / buy back to square their book ?

If it’s the latter they need stock, serious pressure when they have made good £money last few weeks ditto when to close.

Each 10p increment rise is very quick filled.

Throw in tracker funds / pensions / institutions will require a holding/weighting once the share enters the FTSE 100 officially

PI’s can exploit the current situation by being nimble as the shares head back to £4

Looks like the Tracker funds are getting in early
they will need stock as many won’t / needed to have participated - if their MO allows them to before they official listing

Will be interesting to see what their requirement to have a weighting will do to the share price?

Adds an extra dimension to the investment case for PI’s, we can move in early / in advance

Harvey

The addressable LFT market is $8B today / 4.7% CAGR taking it to $13B 2030, Omega is a good opportunity for PI’s to tap into this expanding diagnostic market

As regards Gates , Omega needs Mologic to clear the current regulatory hurdles, if they do then Omega has a good chance to become £1 share over night and possibly head to £2, thats a big increase on the current price - not without risk as mentioned

Your argument falls down once Mologic gains HUA/ FDA approval, at that point we will sell everything we make in today’s market place, if your correct we definitely won’t hold a £90M m/cap, I agree.
If Bill delivers we will have a serious rerate upwards, my money is on Bill Gates getting Mologic over the line and we all benefit as shareholders of Omega.

I don’t think many LTH’s are selling having come this far and when with the right RNS we can make a decent return on the current share price.

Harvey
I quite enjoy a debate - no problem my side you posting your views

I think your argument would have held up quite strongly in January 2021 but without regurgitating known scientific facts in detail we can all agree the vaccines are waning and Delta has become a new dominant strain and here lays the issue, Covid 19 looks like it will be with us for a few many years as more strains spin off, governments realise they can’t keeping jabbing the public every 6 months with boosters so they need accurate / cheap tests and big Pharma is shifting now to anti viral drugs rather than vaccines - one look at Pfizer’s share price says it all

So the market is shifting, Omega are in a good position as they have specialist engineering skills to take advantage, coupled with a world class reputation, WHO , Bill Gates , Chinese Communist Party, U.K. Government as examples who recognise their expertise .

Let’s look at the addressable worldwide market for LFT’s

https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/lateral-flow-assay-market

$8.2B with a CAGR of 4.5% and estimated addressable market of $13.3B by 2030, the market for Diagnostics/ LFT’s
is getting bigger as citizens globally test themselves at home for numerous conditions.

Re Omega shares
Most have done this research, understand the market / the science and have a decent understanding of the margins, once we secure HUA via Mologic biotech we will rerate, if we max capacity -which we have a good chance - we could see £180M to £360M m/cap possibly higher.

Agree there is risk, my calculation is 10% risk which I am happy with to see £1 to £2 a share.

Doubt anything any of us say will make a difference to the market and we will soon find out if your call is correct or Bill Gates has made the correct business move ( yet again )

With respect, am following Bill Gates, he seldom makes the wrong call.

Personal view

Ncyt is probably our only bench mark ?

£180M m/cap
£80M cash ?
£50M Rev ex DHSC

So 2X Rev

DHSC dispute looks like it’s discounted to £zero - until resolved ?

Assume Omega sell 100M LFT’s @ £1.75p gross ?
could we achieve 2X Rev ? Close to £4 ?

Ebita ? Pure guess work but £140M p/a with 2 to maybe 3 times tops ? But we would have to have solid £numbers/ contracts

Feels £2 a share is well achievable this year but we do need the test to be cleared for HUA as first hurdle or entry level USA market

Fully agree
Bill Gates must have been privy to the full data on the Mologic test during due diligence

FIND/ Welcome trust /RADx. - the latter contributing $11M
to Mologic - the first two had the Mologic test as one of the best in the world following peer review trials, it’s all in Mologics favour.

TW
Think Bigbangs is saying, assume £1.75 gross per LFT it’s
£175M gross, that’s at say £3.75p net to Government offering £serious contracts.

Think we can assume it’s higher to distributors but take the lower figure as above its still very good - £175M gross p/a

There is of course a worldwide shortage LFT’s we can guess
manufacturer’s will price to the market.

As regards to the quality of the test, the Government web site quoted the following ;

‘The government will extend regulations and publish protocol to allow some tests supplied to the private testing market that are pending validation to remain on the market in the short term. This is to address any potential shortage of supply while work continues at pace to ensure only high-performing tests are ultimately approved to remain on the UK market’

We will have to wait and see what ‘ high performing ‘ tests equates to, hopefully Mologic make the list, they should do based on the data we are aware of, ditto it’s high performance stats.

‘Apparently the savvy have figured all you really need is QR code, and with people starting to get fed up, and no checking that you actually bought / took a test, expect many to do the bare minimum’

TW, am hoping you are not one of these so called ‘ savvy ‘ people , it’s illegal if they think they can avoid testing
- I don’t think you are btw

I am not sure ‘ savvy ‘ is the correct description of this type of person

Apart from this action being dangerous to our fellow citizens / vulnerable in society it is also risking the NHS being over run this Winter, I don’t see this as being ‘ savvy ‘
but selfish, personally I think most people in the U.K. think this way - similar to isolating when having a positive test ,In general I think the majority are sensible, ditto when isolating after returning to the U.K. over the summer, the public in general do the right thing, we all have a civic duty to take the test when applicable and abide by the law around the registration of the result.

It appears the Government will insist on the individual filming themselves taking the test and registering their barcode / result/ film to the distributor who is managing the same.

On reflection - taking into account the above - we will have to see how the market prices the auditing of the test results but we can surmise there will be heavy penalties for any selfish people who fraudulently abuse this new system.

http://www.privateequitywire.co.uk/2021/08/23/305227/number-british-businesses-acquired-us-private-equity-firms-jumps-57-cent-us

https://www.reuters.com/business/uk-sale-britains-year-private-equity-buyouts-2021-08-16/

Quoted UK. engineers are sitting ducks as quite often under valued by the market

Omega is an ideal opportunity, management don’t have a big equity stake and could be attracted to remuneration packages exceeded via an AIM quote can offer,
No institutions to worry about , business could well generate £500M a year cash, low IP ( limited R&D)

Use debt parked offshore , nick the profits via servicing the debt , no Corp tax , no dividend tax ,usual structure off PE.

Tom makes a good point

100M @ private LFT prices

We smash even the numbers below (£400M)

Omega RNS they are HUA this will rerate upwards

Our next topic will then be what happens next ?

Just can’t see Omega staying public, great business for private equity to pick up

https://twitter.com/tom_the_bomb__/status/1432687571688099840?s=10

Shredz quoting Mologic

https://twitter.com/tom_the_bomb__/status/1448960290150883358?s=10

‘we are quietly confident we have the best LFT in the world’

Harvey

Let’s see how this goes, I reckon ODX have got this one - at last

‘The government will extend regulations and publish protocol to allow some tests supplied to the private testing market that are pending validation to remain on the market in the short term. This is to address any potential shortage of supply while work continues at pace to ensure only high-performing tests are ultimately approved to remain on the UK market’

I wouldn’t bet against Bill Gates, he bought Mologic for a reason

We will sell all we make

Think your right Mars

Not sure we want the DHSC contract - leave that to Surescreen