Member Info for Okehurst1

Back of the fag paper calculation

If Matt returned his £830M bonus -it’s arguable that if shareholders would have known all the facts then he shouldn’t have enjoyed -
this would equate to a decent share buyback in theory, assuming he returned the shares and the company cancelled the same.

Putting this into context, it’s give or take 8% plus of the current shares in circulation, that would be a real positive to the share price.

It’s fair to say Matt didn’t deserve a £830M bonus

Firewall but the gist is another hatchet job off the Times

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b768d92c-3980-11ec-869f-027d769ad087?shareToken=5ec135d1d08646ddc238a48e14a6aa46

TW
Fair comment on the bulk price

There does appear to be decent opportunity selling direct to the public - when allowed - £7.50 net

Comp,on a positive note for Omega their addressable market has got bigger in the last 12 months , granted they need HUA but we have to be positive they will secure

TW does highlight the opportunity though.- decent research

Flowflex are selling direct to the public @ £7.50 net
clever with their bundling prices , 3 , 5 etc as well
am guessing but the distributor price at £4.99 must be stock being cleared for cash, either way Flowflex appear to have increased the price if their own platform is anything to go by.

That’s a decent margin on cost, what an opportunity once we clear HUA

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/6c509a0e-3833-11ec-8ef4-8e6db1a4b82a?shareToken=4b89fba879a779615df0f925ae5bbd0c

Suggest this is weighing on the sector this morning

Amazon down after supply chain, maybe adding to sentiment

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/6c509a0e-3833-11ec-8ef4-8e6db1a4b82a?shareToken=4b89fba879a779615df0f925ae5bbd0c

Thanks for sharing - good find

Thats remarkable, considering the Government web site quoted 7M a week off Surescreen building to 14M a week by Xmas.

Agree, looks like it’s taken the EU a few months to get their head around the science / LFT’s

Good post by Energyshares on Avacta BB which is relevant to EU Antigen tests / interest to this BB

Pasted /posted full post below

New EU directive looking for best tests

From 26 May 2022, the Directive will be replaced by Regulation (EU) 2017/7465. The Regulation will strengthen the requirements for the evidence on performance of the device and introduce a thorough assessment of COVID- 19 tests, including RADTs, by notified bodies.

Page 15 conclusions:

“If tests are to be used to certify recovery from infection, higher specificity tests (>98%) are preferred”

There are currently many RADTs on the EU/EEA market, which vary in their performance characteristics. Independent evaluations have shown that RADTs have variable and lower sensitivity compared to NAAT tests but have a high specificity, often comparable to NAATs. The currently available data show that RADTs sensitivity is high (and can be equivalent to NAAT) in situations when the time of sampling is up to five days after symptom onset, i.e. during the infectious period. ECDC agrees with the minimum performance criteria set by WHO (sensitivity =80% and specificity =97%) and recommends use of tests that have a higher sensitivity of =90% and minimum specificity of >98%, in line with the HSC TWG list. Some of the available tests on the market are included in the HSC list of mutually recognised tests in the EU/EEA and meet the agreed clinical performance criteria. If tests are to be used to certify recovery from infection, higher specificity tests (>98%) are preferred.

RIP PCR looks like best performing tests will replace PCR.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Options-for-the-use-of-rapid-antigen-tests-for-COVID-19-first-update.pdf

Notry, I want to top up but trying to second guess the bottom

Realistically I can’t see the drop stopping until we get to 1X Rev m/cap
which is kind of market valuation of larger on line quoted web sites

Seems unbelievable that we are only 75p away

Has merits?

Instead of SoftBank investing at £4.5B valuation in a standalone Ingenuity

If the share price doesn’t recover above £3B m/cap - on peer on line valuations it’s arguable it won’t until the whole sector rerates

Matt/ Investment bankers take THG private in 2022 , use the cash from the free cash from the web sites - albeit we don’t really know what that is they will/do - to service the debt which is highly tax efficient

They then spin out Ingenuity /fund and build privately using SoftBank ££££, then bring back to market possibly via Nasdaq in a few years time with proven ARR , Matt/ backers share the spoils.

From Matt’s point of view he will have made serious ££ on the IPO
secured the property portfolio for his family, he enjoys 20% of current structure but his Golden Share is going, the structure above he could arguably nick 50% of THG and be back in control.

The m/cap valuation will of course be important but they could secure at £3.5B plus IF the market doesn’t rerate.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/travel/how-to-find-the-cheapest-private-coronavirus-tests-for-travel/

Danl,

Good post, THG is a decent long term investment, especially as you point out if they utilised Ingenuity to focus purely on their own business/ platform and move into other sectors as you mention.

In the near term it’s just at what Rev value the market places on the current structure ?

Is it 1X Rev plus X ARR Ingenuity stand alone as they demerge?

Of course non of us know as the market will decide but suggest based on market metrics we will stay in a range of £2.15 to £2.50 for the next few months?

What’s your call ?

I posted this - 7.37am this morning

‘E: Update26 Oct 2021 07:37
If the market places same value as other online ?

£2B for core business (1X Rev )
£1B Ingenuity

£3B tops ( market cap today £4B)

Will be interesting to see who wins this tussle, the bulls or bears, £2B value gap between the two forces - based on the markets current value for web site business’s / SaaS ARR’

I didn’t quite expect the bears would Mail the stock to £3.1B m/cap same day

I guess the question is will we see £2B m/cap for the websites - as per on line peers - and what value for Ingenuity without knowing it’s R&D requirement?

Gut feel £3B m/cap is the floor and we are close to that, so it’s down as much to Ingenuity value do we stop the rot around the current price?

Will be interesting to see what the market does.

I wonder if part of the problem is that one hand they say R&D is 2.6% but they are also capitalising as much as they can ?
Analysts can see the cash burn / relatively low R&D for a tech business?
but can’t get an angle.

It then makes it extremely difficult to value the overall business ?
on EBITA so the market reverts to 1X Rev as it’s peers

Fully agree , keep it all together, but be more transparent

Mcgart,
I wasn’t saying THG should be £3B - I am a holder
Fully agree re corporate governance etc

Just pointing out there will be a tussle between
bears & bulls due to a £2B valuation cap between the two based on current market valuations of ‘peer’ quoted companies, I’ve no idea which way it will go short term - next few months

Hi Joner

Good to debate stuff - yes invested but weighing up to purchase more or sit tight, just hold what I have?

Think we have to put aside the historical valuation and look at the market valuations today, THG is subjective and tbh I am not too sure which way the valuation will go short term - next few months

I do like the Company / beauty sector especially and the vertical model

If the market places same value as other online ?

£2B for core business (1X Rev )
£1B Ingenuity

£3B tops ( market cap today £4B)

Will be interesting to see who wins this tussle, the bulls or bears, £2B value gap between the two forces - based on the markets current value for web site business’s / SaaS ARR

Personal take.

Annual pro rata revenue of £2B is very good but will the market apply a valuation above 2X to the m/cap ?
2X seems as good as it can get in todays market place, not complete like for like but other multi £billion t/o online quoted Plc’s range from 30 weeks valuation to 52 weeks

THG is 100 week plus

£54M ARR for Ingenuity, we could say 20X Rev

That gives us £5B m/cap top end sum of the parts.

Feel that’s a top end valuation today