Member Info for Okehurst1

Pumpky,

I may be wrong but can’t see 7am RNS other than from USA

Unless the EU / DHSC advise out of hours or a large commercial/ professional use contract signed off , suggest our NOMAD will make that call not the BoD as the LSE places the onus on them, so potentially intra day when the market is informed

Our new Chairman appears to be playing to the book.

Could be wrong, either way hopefully we soon find out.

Think TW has a good point, we have to go on the known facts , the 2 companies have 600 plus staff and current combined capacity of 28M a month increasing to 56M next 12 weeks

It does appear the Government is finally ensuring the U.K. has their own sovereign supply of LFT’s and Omega is part of that solution.

Will we just be manufacturing cassettes for S/Screen or will the Government add some competitive tension and use Visitech antigen test in its entirety, but at least we are generating cash in the meantime.

Hi Flashy

Crude method

The Government told us last week that Surescreen had 28M a month capacity increasing to 56M p/m over the next 12 weeks, I discounted the increase

The Government also disclosed S/screen had 370 staff and Omega are manufacturing cassettes to assist S/screen

So with our 250 staff @ 370 staff S/screen say 600 staff working on Government tests

So based on a base figure of 45k capacity per employee across the 2 business’s then our slug is 11M a month, of course it may be less / Omega told us they would be at 8M full tests a month back in April, they may not increased productivity in the last 5 months.

Do appreciate it’s a crude method, I wasn’t trying to make the volume match btw but when you crunch the data it has some merit.

TW has a good point about the payments schedule so should find out more next few weeks.

The fact Omega were named checked by the Government and it’s their data carries some weight ? But until we know the full information we can’t be 100% either way .

Was thinking that TW but could the invoicing be in arrears whilst production is stepped up as they expanded
to 370 staff ?

It’s the amount of staff coupled with the Government quoting 7M a week rising to 14M ?

Your helpful post identifying SS moving to larger premises as well?

As Omega have not disclosed any financial details of note around their antigen LFT then we have to measure like for like from other sources.

If we look at the Government web site this week it indicates 370 staff can manufacture say 28M tests a month with Omega’s assistance

So including Omega staff that’s say 600 plus staff producing
28M LFT’s a month currently and surprisingly no indication that Surescreen will be adding staff to produce 56M a month by the end of the year

Appreciate this is a wee bit of raw science but currently it’s
45,000 LFT’s a month per employee, potentially rising to
90,000 a month end of year but let’s work on current staff.

Work that back to Omega …. We are currently producing 11M a month of cassettes, which kind of stacks ?

Ok so we know for the cassette for RTC AbC -19 we generated £1.70 @ 50% margin - company broker told us

That would indicate we are currently generating £18M a month and £9M gross on our contribution of cassettes?

We may think it’s material and the company has to tell the market but am not too sure if they have to disclose the financials today ,they can wait until the November update - the Chairman told us he will update market then.

Anyway appreciate its a crude measurement but it may merit 10% +/ - 45k a month per employee but it can’t be that far away as a rule of thumb as things stand today.

‘As the government continues to back companies and technologies working to help break chains of COVID-19 transmission, these new tests will bolster efforts to detect asymptomatic cases of COVID-19, and support more than 370 jobs in the Midlands.

‘Produced by Derby manufacturer, SureScreen Diagnostics, this LFD generates a result in under 15 minutes’

‘The company currently has the capacity to manufacture approximately 7 million tests per week, with plans to increase this to 14 million per week ‘

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/first-uk-manufactured-rapid-tests-deployed-across-england

It appears larger Business’s in USA are testing their staff weekly, as such there is shortage of antigen LFT’s over there.

With a 340M population the USA is a massive market even for just professional use, would be good to get HUA USA but we would take any ‘ use ‘ at the moment

Omegas 100M p/a current capacity has become a valuable world wide commodity

It would have been good to know how many cassettes we are producing per month but we have to assume we are fully utilising the DHSC £17M of kit they have supplied/ installed into Alva, ditto the 250 staff.

Guess we can say having that investment off the DHSC ensured we enjoy the current revenue stream that is generating the ‘ healthy ‘ cash balance our Chairman has
commented on and just importantly it funds the cash flow required to produce LFT’s for the commercial market like the USA, Home Use Europe ,as the regulatory approvals drop.

9 mins in , Bloomberg over night

https://youtu.be/BG-8pVaHo38

TW, it does appear the Government have realised that PCR is useful for checking a positive LFT test, Regulator’s point on that is valid
Ditto the Government are moving to a U.K. supply chain for LFT’s - they have told us / invested / issued valid maiden contract

We may assume Omega’s BoD are confidant Mologic biotech will pass PD and Visitech gets same status as Surescreen

Suits the Government to keep pricing under control ?

Speculating but high percentage chance ?

HUE - U.K.
HUE - EU
DHSC - £374M contract to start
DHSC - a U.K. sovereign test
USA - Professional use

There are number of events that could come off any day, yes there is risk but ODX could well pull this off.

Zz

Mute point but it’s the Chairman of a quoted plc who gives clearance to an acting director to dispose of shares not the CEO - you have to seek their permission unless you are resigning

The marketing director who must be of been in charge of the tweets sold / left the company

Appreciate it’s a technicality but in Colin’s defence on this
point he wouldn’t have had no input if the Chairman clears
the disposal

Nb we have a new chairman as well

Flashy
We just don’t know the original T/C’s of the cassette work, agree though it would be helpful to know who it was at the time but this may have been out of Omega’s control

The fact we were name checked by the Government yesterday is a real positive

https://twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1440980970832809988?s=24

https://twitter.com/omegadiagnostic/status/1440988448484167683?s=24

Captain, suggest your being unfair on Colin

We have a business with a ‘healthy , cash position, he somehow secured £17M of kit off the Government at whatever terms, even got hem to install it,
We are now one of Europe’s largest diagnostic engineers capacity wise, maintained what seems to be a strong relationship with Mologic - he backed the right horse here without doubt, Mologic BoD appear to be very honourable people
As a result he has 100M p/a LFT capacity
What could be one of the best, if not the best , Antigen tests in the world
He’s secured business manufacturing cassettes using this capacity whilst he awaits HUE / USA clearance
Plus he tendered and won a £374M Government contract - appreciate it hasn’t commenced but we are in a good position as / when
Put aside the £6M in the bank , expanding to 250no staff ,
ditto the establishment real estate in both Scotland / England growing to accommodate the growth

Plus under his watch we secured the only WHO approved HIV test , ditto only HUA Chinese Food Tolerance test

Market cap from £4M to £100M

He never sold a share , he bought above current price

Think Colin deserves some respect for what he has achieved to date and how he has positioned Omega Plc

‘Regulatory approvals in the US and CE marking for self-test use for our VISITECT® COVID-19 Antigen test will provide the catalyst for sales opportunities. We recently announced submission for CE marking for self-test use and we are now waiting for our European Notified Body to complete the review of our submission. MHRA approval for sale in the UK is expected to follow soon after CE marking for self-test use is confirmed. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is reviewing the Mologic submission for professional use for the same test, and we expect a positive outcome for both submissions’

From our Chairman’s recent RNS

It’s quite clear, if the information becomes public in the USA it would cause an irregular market, the NOMAD would instruct the company to inform the market

The point of debate is am not sure if we will hear the good news -when it comes - at 7am ?

It may be like yesterday ,one us who has an interest in Omega / Mologic picking something up, sharing the information and the market responding.

Good to debate ideas and share data.

If it’s material to Omega and the information is public our NOMAD will instruct the company to inform the LSE to ensure it’s an orderly market

That’s how it works, it’s driven by the NOMAD

It is …

If it effects a public company in the U.K.

Private commercial contracts 7am

It is …

If Mologic & Omega get told after the U.K. market closes it’s a morning RNS next day

If they are told within U.K. trading hours - albeit this is a short window - and the news is on USA Government websites just like the U.K. and it’s material - which it would be
Then we have to have an RNS

All depends on the time of day via USA

EU / U.K.Government intra day most likely as public information

Has to be intra day RNS ? - as and when they land ?

DHSC
EU HUA

Only one possibly 7am USA market - small window for USA news

Think Flashy has a fair point, think most of us expected an RNS?

We know there is no NDA - Omega have even been name checked by the Government so that’s not the reason

Just an opinion, the BoD may not want to show their hand on margins / price just yet? This makes sense commercially

- Shortage of LFT’s
- Omega one of the largest diagnostic manufacturer’s in Europe
- EU HUA, close
- DHSC negotiations
- USA professional use - hopefully close

Would it be in our interests at this moment in time be it Airports / airlines / governments / distributors knew our base cost & gross margin ? I don’t think so whilst we firm up contracts / sales

Think we can say with some level of confidence we are generating cash - our new chairman told its ‘ healthy

Ditto a Tweet today ? If the company NOMAD has advised it’s not RNS news as Omega had already disclosed they are manufacturing cassettes for Government contractors then it’s a tweet later, with no numbers?