Member Info for Okehurst1

Smartpee

Bummer you missed the £1.59, I averaged out at around the £1.30 from 88p - held onto a relative small number

Couldn’t believe I could get back in again at 50p average
will top up sub 40p if the shorts fund my purchase and take that bet

This is why I never knock anyone shorting you can make money off the back of them taking the other side of the trade, just need patience.

We gap up to £1+ IF THG hit forecast / tweak capex
and guidance looks doable

Its a bagger from here on a risk/ reward ratio

Ste,
My take is 10% growth 2023 , £2.6B tops - I have discounted their number
Ingenuity could surprise to upside

As such am below your EBITA profit - I think £150M ish

Ste,
My EBITA is lower than yours for 2023, my margin is 5.75%

However they cut Capex by £30M ish and they are neutral on FCF

We are both near enough - to be fair - the £200M negative FCF this year is £1 for £ for capex

2phevs , really good point on automation, we were 30% last September

If THG just explain the return on the capex the market can evaluate

Trimming staff by 25% - 2500 - could add £80M to bottom line

2phevs
I agree they will hit the numbers, also think they will trim capex to say FCF neutral 2023, if they don’t he’s in trouble.

Big II’s won’t sell out on the cheap to him, they can see the Capex spend is nuts vs Ingenuity growth, they will interpret as we have that he’s gaming them and they won’t take a cheap bid off him / Qatar

Qatar either put their hand in their pocket and gap up
to SOTP ( part way) or Mouldy explains his plans clearly with £Numbers or he’s toast - in 2023

Mouldy needs to explain the £1/4B capex spend next 24 months - after dropping £200M this year

£200M Rev via Ingenuity, why throw £250M capex over 24 months with even say a 50% growth rate, it doesn’t even cover cost of capital at 6% gross

Either he trims that capex / or explains in detail why / and the return on same or gets exposed and risks getting turfed out and it could happen with no MBO, the market wants to see positive FCF

No need to wait 9 months either an EGM sorts it out beforehand.

Ste,

The £1.70 non bids were just that … never going to happen
both were funded by debt, no way could THG lawyers recommend a Bid that was debt fuelled, there would be no protection for the Directors from a fiduciary point of view - they said that on the conf call to be fair
and nothing in for Mouldy, why take on equity debt on behalf of THG ?
It would be dumb deal and the guy ain’t dumb

I would switch off about the £1.70 was never going to happen

There is a good chance there is a proper fully funded bid via Qatar cash and it could happen out of the blue but in meantime we gap up IF they hit the numbers they told us 6 weeks ago

Ste, agree on your points below

FCF neutral 2023 is crucial to provide confidence to the market.
I may be wrong but my (helicopter view) numbers which I have shared look reasonable - actually lower than the THG forecasts
With just £30M cut to capex and maybe a disposal of property assets they get there

No idea why they would spend £1/4B on Capex next 24 months ?
soon find out I guess when they update

2024 - I have no concerns but that far out I will be surprised if this is still on LSE

Ste
Fair comments on the THG MBO - message crossed

Suggest THG being a food producer via Nutrition and their global reach will see a rerate once we get the trading update out

Beauty - the lipstick effect ? It’s looking that way with ULTA/ELF the industry at large

Am discounting Ingenuity at the moment to nil, even 50% growth is only £6M profit

Personally I wouldn’t bet against Mouldy at this level, far too risky, he has form / track record for pulling rabbits out the Hat, it could be a very expensive mistake to short THG, at these levels - personal view

There is risk holding but a bagger from here is possible on the next trading statement IF they hit target, am happy no Red Dot at the moment, so we are on track to their forecast 6 weeks ago as each day passes

PMH, agree re Lord Allen, this guy has an agenda, other than TR1’s we don’t hear from him

Regarding previous bidders ? Iain Mc and the Candyman were just playing a game, Iain Mc was / still is a Director, he was shorting same time via other connected entities as he was putting a non Bid in - we know this from the Form 8’s at the time ? Still can’t work out how that is legal but that’s another discussion

We may see more share purchases via Mouldy’s insiders, that’s a possibility - maybe 50 - 50 who knows ?

Think it’s fair to say Mouldy wants to take THG Private, he has a window to strike, I guess when he makes his move it will be fast, we won’t get a
5 minute warning and it looks likely it will be Qatar LPG $$

The Golden share enters countdown in a couple of weeks, the clock is ticking

Can only imagine what the figure would be if Asda / Morrisons and others hadn’t of jacked up petrol prices and not passed on the full tax cut on fuel / commodity price drop

Petrol and car prices according to Bloomberg - caused the drop

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/uk-inflation-eases-more-than-expected-from-highest-in-41-years

I drop in and out of the BB so not always up to date but had a quick scan and couldn’t see a post on this one

Thought it was of interest

https://twitter.com/simonburns_/status/1602735635038490624?s=42&t=MFTzO6hsd_WnIJMLa3XWoA

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-13/takeda-to-pay-as-much-as-6-billion-for-nimbus-immune-drug

Crafty think it’s it’s the can

Should have a nice squeeze up to 65p

Short squeeze underway as traders move ‘risk on ‘

This is why Longs shouldn’t get angry with Shorts or engage in personal comments, waste of energy, the Shorts create opportunities to make money

FT breaking news

‘The pace of US consumer price growth moderated more than expected in November to its slowest pace in a year, bolstering the Federal Reserve’s case to slow down the pace of rate rises on Wednesday and sending US stock futures and government bonds soaring.

The consumer price index (CPI) moderated to an annual pace of 7.1 per cent last month, lower than the 7.3 per cent forecasted by economists and down from the 7.7 per cent pace registered in October. That is the lowest level since December 2021.

Compared to the previous month, overall CPI rose 0.1 per cent, less than October’s 0.4 per cent increase’

https://on.ft.com/3Hy0rhs

LD, they told us 6 weeks ago - that was a big call in the RNS

If they are going to miss they would have to update market

The £100M is looking firm

Ste, reckon we are heading to 65p this week

No red dot as yet so we are on target to their guidance 6 weeks ago

Early Jan numbers out

Mouldy called the bottom - almost bottom - with his trade of the year at 39p

Page 16 of last annual accounts

32,000 global influencers

Drifting close to only 1000 companies quoted across the LSE

One vanishing every week

Not mentioned in this article but only 1 tech company in FTSE 100 - Sage