Member Info for Okehurst1

Suggest we have to look at the volumes, very light today
£300k sold
£500k bought

MM’s can’t generate the volume , feels like new money still on sideline, II shorts would like to take profits - we know this as 50% drop in notifiable shorts to touching just 2% now - but can’t get the shares

We then get the spikes like yesterday as an II bites the bullet
and instructs it’s broker to go on the offer

We don’t need new money to come into THG as such - although guess that will happen as well

With over 100M shares short they need to close to protect profits

One eye on the II managers end of year bonuses, we should see us head to close on zero on disclosable shorts - down 50% in past 5 weeks

Looks like the index fund exited yesterday

Steady move back up

Shorts telling us 40p last week as we head to 80p

Watch for MM’s ‘ flash ‘ dropping the Bid price but on a wide spread - like Monday / Tuesday

They load up to fill orders ,narrow the spread ,fill their boots , move the offer up, nice bit of business.

Steve, it’s European Sweet Whey futures for THG
still well off it’s highs for year

The trend line on the charts below is a handy indicator, ditto comparison to 2021 prices

https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=whey

This guy explains the market today quite well - 4 min interview

In effect the $$ made trading into value stocks - and we can assume shorting - won’t want to miss the profits they made the last 11 months
they have already left some in the table as the market has bounced off the bottom

THG has circa 9% of stock shorted, suggest we are going to see more big move up jumps as we head to the £1, as much fuelled by shorts exiting and rotation then clicking in

Watch out for MM’s in thin trade marking the shares down to accumulate to fill Shorts orders - like what happened this week then we see the snap back

Bad time to be short , it’s going to be brutal

https://youtu.be/GnJ7jmggJR8

Nasdaq heading close to 4% jump

Single line £2M purchase UT Buy

MM’s worked at least 2p to 3p a share average, nice bit of business mugging off PI’s who bottle it / on margin

This BB gets the usual posters saying going to 40p or am thinking ?? f shorting …. Or
Why does it always go down ? … all the usual messages
that’s the signal we are getting worked

The .5% disclosed are heading sub 2%

MM’s played a blinder the past few days on low volume, squeezing out weak hands / anyone on margin, built a book to fill an order

We know who for now

The smart money who have made a packet on shorting THG they will want to lock in those profits, we can expect more of these tactics as the price heads to £1

LD
MM’s building their book and IG etc
then selling on the gap
Don’t forget IG don’t always match a trade … they trade against their punters at times
It’s how they make a 50% margin

Assume the EBITA guidance comes in for 2022
The £44M disposal completes
They tweak 2022 capex from £133M to £100M
2023 EBITA of £150M - low end of target
Being £2.6B which is 10% growth, 5.75% gross EBITA
nothing there a hero’s budget

That’s THG FCF neutral as per August Conf call

Any surprises like Ingenuity whales, Whey prices move towards $750 are all to the upside on the numbers above

Hence this is a scary stock to short at these levels

It’s been thin trading this week

MM’s have accumulated as they pushed the price down
-now they let it go

Can’t see new II shorts opening positions of note, the downside could be brutal , IG is less than 4% Short - from pool of 250 to 500+

MM’s / IG & co then squeeze private investors who have taken a short trade
try and catch a few on margin

We hit the £100M plus EBITA, announce completion of the £44M disposal
Tweak Capex a tad , guidance on 2023 EBITA and we should smash the £1+
no reason why not

Wouldn’t want to be opening a new short on this one

Hi Claire
Just bought in first time - got a general feel for the company

What’s your take on their Heat Pump tech and current revenue from same ?

Just picked up a few up for the first time

New to the BB, been watching Strix for a while

With the Australian acquisition the enlarged group should generate £150M revenue @ 38% GP and net profit of £23M
Servicing £60M plus of debt

They could half the dividend and Strix would still be yielding 5% and at same time paying off debt with the balance saved ?

Certainly starting to looking like an interesting investment

Spot on Moniman

Morrisons since being bought with £6B of PE debt is another example of working people funding their interest payments via higher fuel costs

Asda and Morrisons PE backers have milked their customers.

THG would have gone the same way had PE got in here - we may have made a quick buck as small private punters but THG customers would be picking up the tab of the interest payments as well

$$ on the sidelines, all eyes on next USA inflation print

Same in U.K., the Shorts could get ripped apart if inflation drops

Patience required at THG, the next bounce up will be as fast / fierce as the 125% jump we just enjoyed, got to be in it to win it

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/inflation

Think even the most ardent bullish THG holder would say THG would struggle to raise the $$ in the U.K. to fund Ingenuity growth
Why any one would want to list in the U.K. at all but that’s a separate conversation

List in USA via a SPAC, minimum cost /time, be better received by that market

Not too sure of the timing but before the Golden Share expires?

Just on the SPAC Nasdaq route

Minimal listing requirements for Mouldy to worry about, he gets the $cash to keep the capex funded for further roll outs, there is probably zero chance he would IPO Ingenuity in London - not worth even considering that route

He would probably pitch Ingenuity as a D2C Shopify which may be well received

Interesting post Pearls - I hadn’t thought about the requirement for separate audited accounts required for Pre listing

You also raise a good point re Ingenuity demerger, I wonder if Mouldy plans a straight forward direct listing on the Nasdaq? Maybe use a SPAC ?
Can’t see him listing this in U.K. ?

Lots of SPACs out there with cash, personal opinion but think Ingenuity lends its self to a listing via this route.