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THG insiders will have a good idea if they are going to report £100M + EBITA … or not
They advised 3 weeks ago they would

We know THG is leaky, suggest the word is getting out that the 2022 EBITA target is going to get hit

£1 not 40p at that point as long as 2023 EBITA is firmed

That’s the technical play at the moment, hit the £100M and start the next leg of the rerate

Works both way …

You have a long you make a decent profit -on paper - you may sell

Same with the Shorts … unless it’s linked with a 3:1 long / short trading strategy or something you may take your profit

II’s included , the fund managers don’t want to lose that end of year bonus, let’s not forget they are playing with other peoples money, it’s all about the bonus for these guys

Agree Coldspy, patience.

Yeah Licker …. Bit of stand off at the moment

Personal opinion, you make the call on a bad news event driving the share price to 40p( say) or they hit EBITA as advised 3 weeks ago and we should go to £1+ , plus as a bonus ball they announce something material with Ingenuity and the £165M 2023 gets credence

I am on the latter, not saying this is £2.50 but £1+ Q1 IF they deliver what they promised a few weeks ago and no nasty surprises

Ovs a Mouldy MBO and all bets off

On a general note

Unless we get some dire news off THG can’t see 40p happening any time soon, daily volumes are low, just £190,000 of shares sold today so Shorts not loading up with conviction - Longs not loading up either btw

Any good news be that EBITA forecasts confirmed, Ingenuity Whale landed , positive Xmas trading statement and the £1 looks more possible than the 40p

Ste ,

Fully agree with your points

If I can add

They have £670M of cash, they should hit FCF £20M 2024 - give or take we both agree on that point, important as they have their finance in order

Variables for the upside;

200pts gross margin increase
Ingenuity ARPU / whales positive news
24 months out on 70% automated orders 2500 reduction head count , big saving that one

Golden share has to be considered - from an investment angle
even if Mouldy can’t get II’s to agree to his terms for an MBO we get the Full listing and we are open to serious offers

At £900M m/cap it’s a decent punt at that’s levels

Good debate btw

A/S posts crossed, Golden Share is a big factor to build into the investment case here

Hi Ste
You make fair comments - would rather debate

My counter argument

Can’t argue on the Shorts front, 9% out on loan, ditto what we say doesn’t matter to the share price, ideally we just share data / info - short or long
Ditto I know you and I are not that far away with the £numbers / cash position in THG, I just don’t have a ‘pair ‘to
Short this one

EBITA guidance at £165M 2023 and 2022 confirmed and we should rerate £1 +

Ditto confirm the margin moving up to the guidance 200pt - am not sure they will get the full 200pts that has to be worked so I’ve discounted on my spread sheet

THG Ingenuity advises positively on ARPU and they announce a ‘whale ‘ account of note and that will firm up the share price

£1 + sometime Q1 2023 is my view, suggest it’s doable IF the numbers come in above and we don’t get any nasties

MBO as you said ‘ gift from the gods ‘

Know we hit 31p but that £38M @ 39p trade by Mouldy / Qatar picking up circa 82M shares was one heck of a trade

One week before market trading update

Lord Lucan Allen loading up £2M worth average around 60p ?

Follow the money egh ?

October e- commerce up 12.7%

MasterCard saying yesterday it’s looking like 15% growth retail sales November - interview on one of the USA financial channels last night

25% and growing THG sales in USA

‘Mastercard SpendingPulse October Insights:

As anticipated, early holiday promotions drove consumers online and into stores. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, October U.S. retail sales excluding automotive increased 9.5% year over year and 23.6% compared to October 2019. E-commerce sales in October grew 12.7% YOY and 96.0% YO3Y

https://www.mastercard.com/news/press/2022/november/mastercard-spendingpulse-anticipates-15-u-s-retail-sales-growth-on-black-friday/

AO interims out today, £1.2B on line U.K. only retailer selling other people’s good might on a good day make £20M EBITA 2023 with a m/cap of £350M
18% gross margin

THG £2.4B on line global producer and retailer (55% ROW ) 30% automated orders, 70% 24hr delivery, 25% of sales USA , gross margin 44%
2023 EBITA potentially £165B
M/Cap £900M

It is nuts just how cheap THG actually is as an investment opportunity compared to peers

We also have the Golden Share expiring in the next 40 odd weeks, Mouldy has to pull another rabbit out the hat to protect his position or he’s exposed.

IF THG guide on £165M EBITA 2023 we would be at 5.5X 2023 value today, that’s ridiculously low, 40p would be 3X 2023 EBITA - that’s total nuts

Mouldy has to either stump up with partners to take private or bite his lip and start courting the City / market and explain the capex in Ingenuity and provide the promised divisional breakdown

We had 150% bounce up there was a fair chance we saw a pull back, depending on your trading strategy you either take all / part cash off the table or ride it

IF THG advise on £100M to £130M EBITA in Q1 2023 and they give positive guidance for 2023 then based on market ratings we should see £1 to £1.15 all things being equal, suggest that’s a technical point

Not sure how 40p is odds on unless the guidance that THG gave 3 weeks ago was well over egged?

Nice research SP - as always

Checking out Mouldings Insta page

According to him, My Protein do some big campaigns but this will be hard to beat - Ronaldo

USA appears to be pushing for peace talks, France as well.

Put the human suffering element to one side ,imagine the equity market in general would welcome peace talks, just another reason not to be Short THG, the risks are mounting by the week for the Bears in this stock

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-19/uk-skeptical-on-macron-call-for-talks-says-ukraine-must-decide

Fair say the last mile is a commodity service, Ingenuity provide the majority of the supply chain for customers

Back to the thread ….

Nice bit of PR / Marketing for THG Studios - luxury Brand utilising their services

We know THG are 30% automated orders with 70% 24hr delivery globally, ditto they have advised this will allow 25% head count within a few years and they working towards 70% automated service

WPP can’t compete with the overall THG D2C vertical service, it’s impressive - cost £Billions to put together mind

Moulding posted about the ‘ photo ‘ this morning

Remember the bull xxxx from WPP saying they were going to replicate the Ingenuity model ?

Moments like today demonstrates why WPP feel threatened

Nice sharing of info/ ideas

Golden, THG have what 85% spare capacity ?

Let’s say £2.3B of revenue now ,that gives THG on a good day
£16B of space to utilise - appreciate it’s rough gauge but gives us some idea

Throw the 6% margin over the top, that’s the prize , it’s a big print

Nb read somewhere they said it was £19B capacity in total ?

When the £m/cap was £6.5B the article below picks up on the forecast in the IPO document

‘Nestlé, Unilever: Understood to have been Ingenuity customers since around 2013. THG said in its prospectus the brands expect DTC to account for 10% and 9% of their global sales respectively by 2022’

Tbf to THG on a annualised basis they are touching that target
£200M plus 2022

No idea how the City valued the business at £6.5B even 18
Months ago knowing the max gross profit was £12M (6%) come end of 2022? THG didn’t hide it ?

Here we are 18 months on and THG -have to be fair -delivered their target but Ingenuity is now valued at £zero