Member Info for Okehurst1

Bar being raised for Mouldy and Qatar, if they are going to make their move it has to be soon - if that is their game plan

We hit £1.45 Q1 2023 he ain’t nicking this for £1.80

We hit the £1+ before / after Xmas that’s heading to a 300% jump from the low from just a few weeks ago, it’s a killer for a short

We had 126M shares short on Monday
There is no way these are getting out of this one easily
If it’s a straight short they are done
If it’s II’s on a 3:1 this will hit their performance / personal bonus’s

Happy days … let them burn , the market bottom well in

Defo a turning point today in the markets

Yes the real time data will be horrible but the stock market discounts 9 months plus out

We secure the £115M and THG confirm £165M 2023 and we push onto £1.45 Q1

Still a bagger in this yet

Novice, agree a 3:1 ratio is what some II’s take out as a hedge but this does £1.50 new year and it’s a big chunk of profit from the Long to cover the short

Going to be some big jumps in THG shares as Shorts step up their exit plans -been such a good few weeks

Is steve2k ok ? And Eye ?

The market bottom is here

£115M EBITA we are sitting at £1.15
Then next years EBITA to boost to £1.45

The Short II’s know this … they need our shares to get out

Am sitting tight since buying in at 45p, am not good enough to try and trade as you miss 9% jumps - 125% jump from low a few weeks ago

The short traders will be pinging margin call cash over this afternoon - painful

Mouldy called it at 39p - top trade

Let the Shorts burn, the trend is your friend

Golden, thanks for sharing :-)

Just a few thoughts on Ingenuity - put aside it’s history / IPO a valuation / SoftBank, we are where are stuff

Does focus the mind that at £50M Rev Q4 and the 2 main divisions may well do £675M same period @ 44% gross combined then Ingenuity has to knock out some serious revenue to make a material difference, thinking £1B minimum to contribute meaningfully, where the market values the pro rata £60M contribution - 20% of the way there but at moment valued at £zero, the market is possibly correct, the new CEO a has to deliver

Folks, not worth the energy engaging, anyone short is here to make $$ like we all, who cares ?

Keep sharing data / commercial views

That was a helpful post off you yesterday SP, I crunched a few numbers last night from recent accounts ,same format as yesterdays, flexed a bit just in case and we should come out at £115M + EBITA for 2022
THG forecast £100M to £130M just 16 days ago

£1 to £1.15 is where we should be on the news, then a tweak up towards £1.45 if they confirm the £165M EBITA 2023

What could send the shares higher ex a Buy out ?

- Ingenuity contracts of size, upward revision of revenue, it would have to be decent though
- Without the above THG confirm they are cutting Capex
- Automated orders percentage increases and job cuts as a result, 25% headcount reduction adds £90M bottom line

With £670M cash in the hand I am feeling more and more confident about THG a moving forward, kind of don’t want a Mouldy buy out and let this one run

MM’s moving it around … flush out sellers
Accumulate stock
Look at the spread it’s been quite high - relatively speaking
they have buyers in the wings on a fixed price Offer, the MM’s fill the order / nick the margin

Classic move

MM’s playing games to accumulate stock

Trend is your friend stuff here

LD, personal opinion, I think the 14X EBITA coming in at £100M to £130M was a big one and then running it forward
Ditto the cost whey dropping
30% automated orders today
2 years out they think they can rip out 25% of staff costs
- £90M a year saving ?

Ingenuity bunce on top

What a trade by Mouldy/Qatar at 39p , they called the bottom, we hit £115M EBITA we should touch £1.20 and they double bag that trade

Nb does focus the mind that IF the Ingenuity CEO can land more whales and materially increase ARPU and fully utilise the capex that has been invest then THG £numbers could be very interesting to the upside

Ingenuity at the gross Rev level just 6% of total revenue, as such valued at £zero

Canary/SP

Just on the £numbers

The £50M Rev via Ingenuity could reduce the averages but add back the margin increase on whey prices dropping H2 - then drop over Nutrition figures - and then price increases which based on trend could be £1 per Beauty 50p nutrition

Appreciate it’s a bit of an alphabet soup of numbers but we can see how they got to £100M to £130M EBITA, am going with £115M EBITA if the COO is giving us correct info

Canary, looking at like for like and adding in their growth numbers

Looks like we could have £115M

If the average order size tweaks up as per trend then their £130M EBITA comes home - as such they had the range

Going back the £numbers folks

If below stacks - I don’t think it’s far away please see caveats

That’s £1.9B Rev for 2022 - it could be higher if average downs is up a £2 which it could be, less bit of Ingenuity Rev mixed in

We know H1 was 6% EBITA margin but since then Whey has come off so we may get a tweak up but let’s run with 6%

Make your own call but £1.9B @ 6% £115M EBITA
smack in the middle of their forecast £100M to £130m

£115M @ 14X £1.6B m/cap £1.15p

Before 2023 EBITA forecast comes into play

£115M 2022 EBITA - not without caveats up or down but right in the middle of their forecast 2 weeks ago

Q4 2021 beauty was £401M vs £463M back of *** paper
Nutrition. £167M vs. £218M

3 caveats … ingenuity itself, have we pushed up selling price to H1 per delivery average ,could whey prices down H2 pushed gross up 6% ?

The above is rough calcs for debate