Member Info for Okehurst1

Hi Brewman

Will have a gander at the numbers and get back tomorrow

Nutrition is circa 47% gross, guess with Whey dropping it helps the margin

Brewman,
Good points

Think we all know don’t write off Mouldy to pull a rabbit out the Hat

Guess it depends on the £price Licker ?
Pay off Debt
Cash into remaining divisions
Spin off Beauty and Ditto Ingenuity, dividend in species for one ?
would love to see both relisted USA

Who knows maybe a special cash dividend in top ?

Makes commercial sense if they have a solution but is coming off?

It’s why you wouldn’t want to be short in this share or out of it just in case - as frustrating as it can be at times

Any rumours on £price ? - of Nutrition disposal

Charlie Munger had a quote

‘ don’t underestimate a man who overestimates himself, they get it right now and then ‘

Suggest Mouldy fits that description

Looks the market is working out THG may hit their guidance / targets for 2022 and the £1 is possible

Assume they do …. It will be interesting to view their 2023 view, trim capex / FCF neutral with £150M EBITA and just maybe we get past £1.20 +

possible

2phevs

Interesting points re MM and his property profile and potential scrutiny on the leases if he loses control

MBO or Pivot his current attitude - towards non insider shareholders / City

If Ingenuity could get to £1B Rev - as a round number
it should generate £60M gross EBITA , no idea how long that would take?

Been posted numerous times but it’s estimated that they have capacity of £15B globally - not sure how that’s calculated but if we assume THG are correct

Massive opportunity IF they can deliver

Meanwhile let’s hope they trim Capex to match the growth they do achieve? Spending £1/4B Capex over the next 24 months doesn’t appear logical on an operation with 80% capacity and £200M Rev and £6M gross EBITA profit

The THG BoD are not dumb so hopeful they trim accordingly

We may well see a small upward bounce Ste as the market digests no profit warning as we head to Xmas break

Pre … but hoping ( it is hope ) we hit £110M less Sass
Based on average Rev per order per division
12M plus orders Q4 - I could be wrong mind

We need the 12M orders on same historic ratio’s, that’s the Hope factor, no idea if they have / will

Steve
Am happy if they hit £2.35B and £100M EBITA, gets us closer to the £1
Anything above is a bonus

Every day we edge closer to year end - without a red dot profit warning - we can bank on the above as the minimum (£100M)

Doesn’t feel like a profit warning is coming

https://instagram.com/stories/matthew_moulding/2995909263002269950?utm_source=ig_story_item_share&igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

Steve, agree all points
I didn’t realise Baldertons were 75% ! Wow they won’t be happy with Mouldy that’s a massive number
Sofina are well under water as well

The GS runs out and THG gets an unsolicited bid direct to shareholders - above the board - and Mouldy has gone if it’s priced correctly

Either way he needs to start to raise his game with communication and does the good Lord

Am not sure Sofina and Bladerton could except to roll into a private equity deal they will have a ‘ term’ life of their funds

Other than Qatar funds the other big II’s are well under water including
Sir Terry Leahy

Mouldy probably has Sir Tom Hunter with what stake he didn’t sell , Qatar , trustees of charities / employees, he won’t get the 75%

If he thought he could he would gone for it by now , my call he’s already been rebuffed at a low ball offer

Qatar need to up their game or he pivots

Fair comment Italian

We should see £1 on their numbers coming in Q1 -see where we go from there

Contd ….. Q1 2023 IF Qatar do chip in we may see £2 + needs a £2 to get control

Good post Licker

C/Man agree he wants on the cheap but can’t see him getting the support of the big II’s , it will be down to what Qatar will fork out ?
£150M EBITA for 2023 he ain’t getting this for even £1 - 9X EBITA he has zero chance

Without Qatar $ he has to pivot or he’s exposed big time in 2023 as the GS expires

At this level we

2phevs/ Steve, good posts, the BB works well when we focus on sharing data / thesis / ideas, it shouldn’t be an issue if a poster has an opposing view, focus on the data we know.

Steve, good analysis on the £numbers.

- Hotel /Spa, THG do offer these perks to their global influencers when they bring them to the head office ,intangible of course on our part but logically your spot on, ditto the staff cuts, hopefully automation keeps a lid on blue collar staff and the pen swings on white collar
Ditto dispose of all non core real estate on the books - if they can

Think we can all agree that the elephant in the room is capex, £200M this year, £1/4B next 24 months

It’s almost £500M over 36 months, that’s not buying real estate either?

Generate FCF from existing assets, focus on the two core business to generate cash and ‘only ‘ invest Capex in Ingenuity as/when they land more
‘ Whales’ and the market can measure the ROCE vs the 6% gross earned - being Ingenuity EBITA target margin

If Mouldy doesn’t do the above he’s risking being outed when his GS expires, the big II’s won’t be happy - 94% loss of value , 80% loss this year alone - it’s been a shockingly bad share performance

This guy ain’t dumb he’s got his moves planned out, IF the II’s won’t take his cheap offer buy out / Qatar won’t fund a big premium then he has to pivot and start explaining the numbers better / cut capex

MBO or Pivot , one or other

Bit of bunce for THG (maybe )for U.K. late sales

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-16/christmas-shopping-week-rocked-by-uk-s-railway-strikes

94% down from all time high

Close to 80% down 2022

Not without risk but THG at this level with £Billions invested is looking a decent risk/ reward punt