Member Info for Okehurst1

Am 90% certain it’s Sparta
Long winded from who was buying broker wise / where they shifted stock to/from

Harbrook have not been on Bloomberg T and then they pull all the trusts into one - it’s a new name

Will do a bit of digging

Holding via Jersey trust

Sparta using offshore trust ?
Looks like it, thought they were hiding via this one
Just on 2%

No need to mention their name ?

Apollo go in too low they lose control of events - other bidders pop up

They come in close to £EV and they get to touch the trophy

Like who would sell today?

Us PI’s don’t get many chances like this where the risk/reward is decent in our favour

Mouldings Golden Share gone in a 16 weeks
Apollo know the business and have £560M Bond with THG
£3.7B EV
Apollo buying secondary / no debt
THG staff have £110M ‘ invested ‘
BoD heavily invested
Shorts need to close as a side issue

Sky news again on the money with their ‘ contacts ‘
Maybe … another bidder

Shorts need shares and we are in play to possibly £2 plus or even £EV £2.50

To the doubters who said we wouldn’t have a Short squeeze you missed a trick, we are in the middle of an almighty one

We may just get the £EV valuation of £3.7B ?
£2.50

There should really be a premium but let’s see

At £EV level the staff roll £250M into the new equity

As an average that’s £30k a head

Ovs some will have bigger stakes but Apollo double their money over 5 years which is there kind of target the fund is
£1/2B

Apollo don’t have to worry about dilution /motivating the staff either, all in place

Not sure of total amount of Shorts outstanding but it’s still a fair few, put aside Quant Funds like Cube most are managed by Humans who know the data at hand and measure their risk

Apollo hold the £560M Bond
THG could restructure and save £46M interest a year based on current cash pile with net debt dropping as low as £140M post property disposal - THG Company lawyers would love this type of transaction, it’s important as they have to recommend the Offer, it’s all about the Company to them.

It’s a secondary share purchase by Apollo so no dilution to the MM / II’s rolling ,Apollo will have representation on the BoD but not control and MM will have a ‘ carry’ as part of his personal agreement to back the offer
MM couldn’t have secured the ‘ carry ‘ with THG on the public markets

No RNS update so stuff progressing and it’s logical a deal will be presented

The Shorts are well aware an offer is inbound

It’s been a great run last 2 weeks, we are up 50%, more to come as the remaining shorts scurry around for stock

It’s just how close to £EV we get now

Good point Licker

How it’s structured don’t matter to us PI’s really

In theory they should pay £EV minimum and we can guess they will try a chip but that might not get them to 75.1%, I think they have to pay up to get this over the line and us PI’s just sit tight and hold onto the shirt tails of the non rolling 60%

Bagger from here

The muted deal has THG raising no new shares -, from Qatar /others - and in this case Apollo can only buy out the shareholders who are not rolling into Newco

MM / Qatar / Sofina etc will have negotiated Pre emptive / Drag rights ditto BoD seats so Apollo can’t take full control
in effect they get first dibs IF post deal THG a raise equity funding, guess they will just use the debt facility of £670M that is in place, £500M of cash and no dilution

Banking is in place, Apollo hold the £560M Bond

Everything is in place, MM has set this up well ,it’s just how close to £EV the 60% get now

The company can’t borrow the money so the management can’t get the Co to service the debt

The management team won’t take on debt of which is priority over their equity - not going happen

The only deal at this moment of time is 50% to 60% current equity get taken out, it’s a straight forward transaction

MM wants to run this one, he is telling the market via linked in
for a reason

It’s just about how close to £EV we get offered

Messages crossed Ste

Agree with your gist

MM has to win this battle or risks being ousted from the BoD if the Apollo offer is rejected / unable to get to 75.1%

Suggest that’s a key number number for us now , looking at the registrar can’t see him getting to this figure without a £2 plus Bid as you say

MBO won’t happen, THG can’t service the debt never mind fund ingenuity - that’s just fact

The BoD / insider II will roll their equity stake into unquoted Newco - with Apollo buying out the remaining equity holders

Nb how that is structured for their personal tax affairs is irrelevant for us PI’s

It’s now down to what price do Apollo pitch at ? If they go too low the II’s not rolling will dig in, activists/ speculators then load up and it gets messy ,especially with MM’s Golden share going in 16 to 20 weeks MM is exposed to left field T/O

Work on £3.7B EV and will Institutions not rolling except leaving £1.7B on the table for Apollo if the offer was £1.50?

Will they take £2.50 which is the £EV or will they want a premium ? None of us know as yet

Worth noting, this is a passive approach, Apollo know the company well and have a £560M loan which they recently refinanced at covenant light terms for THG so the heavy DD was done months ago

Personal opinion, has to have a £2 in front of it to have a chance MM achieves his game plan, £2.25 and we leave a bit of £bunce for Apollo, £2.50 fair value

Nb

MM may get 20% as a figure above £5B Mcap total disposal one day plus his family 25% on the full rump

No chance could he bag that in the public markets

MM gets no £P’a initially out the transaction
bit his personal ‘carry ‘ will have been agreed

It’s then what range it clicks into place - no one their side knows that as yet

The 60% of the market set the take out price they accept

Reckon deal done internally Rock
Main DD was completed 6 months ago when Apollo completed the £560M Bond refinancing on such favourable terms to THG

It’s just a question of max £price MM/BoD can get Apollo to pay up and the II’s not rolling will except.

They will have a ‘wish list to max ‘ price £Mcap

We up 110% YTD

Up 45% MTD - benefits of Short Covering

Another 100% to 150% - if we get £EV value £3.7B

It’s been a top trade for 2023 and more to come

Ouch!

Shorts taking a battering