Member Info for Okehurst1

Your looking in the wrong place for the answer

Mainly all retail brokers Rock

Retail takes the hit as usual

Suggest this is down in the main to retail panicking

majority of volume is with retail brokers

The big boys seeing no volume

Stay cool it’s coming

Market makers have wind for tomorrow

Pushing stop losses to get in and be liquid for a nice bounce

in morning they will have a buyer …. Apollo

Retail take the brunt

Certainly has ….

Ste, you know my posting history as good as anyone.

Pretty firm on below - hope that helps you

It’s looking highly likely we get an Offer and it could come out of the blue, we can assume it’s well above the current price, it’s just how high and will the non rolling II’s take it?

Or will the effective Concert Party be happy with 75.1% and mop up the balance with a Court / legal restructuring via a scheme of arrangement?

Gut feel …. Once they get to 75.1% big players holding out will fold to avoid the above

Ste,

It won’t work the way you say in this case - it’s not a complete buy out and the company are not taking on the debt

MM/BoD would have agreed HOT’s and Share Holder agreements before they let Apollo loose within the business

this would have included an indicative price to buy out the 40% day who are not rolling - we have not been informed of that price of course but the Chairman just a few weeks ago indicated a price that he thinks is too low (£1.70)

As regards the number of Apollo staff that would be quite normal undertaking a DD in a short period of time there are numerous businesses that make up THG - not sure if you have experience in M&A but it’s labour intensive and THG is global to boot

This is completely different to a non bid off Iain Mc /Candyman there is serious resource being thrown at it, the reason we sit we sit were we do is there is always the chance of a red line popping up, however with each day passing that has to give us more comfort

Risk/ Reward is decent for us PI’s, I think we will get an Offer

Ste,

Think we can agree Apollo want THG as such they are spending serious $ on the DD

Also agree they want their 40% stake as cheap as possible

bit like all of us egh ?

This is nowt to do with MM now it’s just what will it take to get the Concert party being the BoD/ rolling II’s to 75.1% with Apollo

Apollo don’t ‘trade ‘ they want a sure thing so the price has to be sensible for all parties to get a deal over the line

The annual accounts went out recently with the Chairman being quoted saying £1.70 undervalues the business

If this helps you I understand there are 100’s of Apollo staff working within THG on the DD and have been for weeks, it doesn’t mean a deal won’t happen but HOTs/ SA’s will have been agreed it’s now down to quantum on the £m/cap and if they have a red line ?

Not without risk but a nice punt for us PI’s, MM will have a plan B if this one doesn’t come off - I think it will

Btw

Think we have to look at who on the share register has added in the past 16 weeks as we jumped 100% and the helicopter view of the headline cash

Insiders have been accumulating ;

Iain McDonald, his Belerion fund have stuffed themselves with THG Shares especially in March

Balderton executives - serious personal money invested

Blackrock, added

Vanguard who sold 35% of their holding reversed just a week before the Apollo offer

Heavy buying via Charles Schwab USA accounts - the volume which you can see via Bloomberg T has been nuts, all under 1% but serious conviction, you don’t see that on Form 8’s

BK quietly accumulated just under 3%

It was pretty clear in January an event had to happen, Ingenuity needed funding, strip that out and independently fund and the core spews out £130M cash with no rent - that’s the number today

Restructure the debt which could be less than £140M, they lopped £70M off it from October to March just gone, a 10% coupon on that and it’s £14M and that’s before they start ramping up the growth especially in Nutrition USA as they have the cash and infrastructure to do so

The £2B tax losses is just pure bunce

As such there is no chance this is a £1 take out, not going to happen, Apollo don’t trade ,they offer, you except or you don’t what ever their final position maybe, but they don’t buy/hold and return in 6 months, they are PE Fund who do large buy outs

Apollo will Bid it’s just how close to £EV ? And what metric ?

So the Quant Crew are the last to leave, their trading Comps just couldn’t work it out till it was too late.

https://youtu.be/QHH3iSeDBLo

This ain’t Mouldings call to reject the Offer, the BoD make that shout and it appears the BoD are not selling personally, it’s not a Golden Share position

This is down to how many shareholders take the offer plus how many make up the 75.1% from the percentage who are rolling and the lowest price Apollo think they can get this deal secured ?

Personally I don’t think this was brought down so Qube could sell .2% on the cheap

Gut feel … the insiders took their positions mainly before the Apollo RNS, many may be aware of the DD and don’t wish to either trade on the knowledge for obvious reasons or they are comfortable with the size of their position - maybe a mixture of both

They understand there is risk here but are prepared to manage the risk knowing there is a plan B from MM

Last 48hrs is traders who may have some information on timescale but not certain of the outcome, in and out stuff

We may see us go blue PM tomorrow as they position for the countdown

I sold last year at £1.25 plus when Iain Mc who made the ‘ bid’ was shorting via connected funds - Belerion Iain Mcs fund this time around have been adding Jan/Feb and by March THG was over 11% of the fund value, the highest percentage ever

We also had the same from Blackrock and other insiders buying this time / no shorting, complete opposite to last year

We have had no selling this time around, 100% solid

Based on the players involved I think a Bid is inbound, at what price am not sure ?But a Bid is coming is my view

So the trading over the past 2 days has been traders / under 1% Longs

The II insiders who have loaded up the last 8 weeks they have stood firm, based on their past performance they would have been shorting THG if there was no chance of a deal

Qube are last man standing

Wouldn’t be surprised they are below .5% before Friday

Last year we had ‘ insider’ II’s shorting / trading the stock - via Form 8’s

Been different this time around

Apollo are not buying all the shares, they are buying a large stake but it may not be a majority holding

As an example

If it was 40% as a percentage it would be 600M shares

£1.80 a share vs £1.50 is £180M extra cash to secure the deal and it’s still a steal for Apollo

With the £1.80 the concert party - which in effect they would be - who are collectively retaining a stake may well get to the 75.1%

Am hoping it’s higher but realistically it’s all about the 75.1% threshold and what Apollo are prepared to offer to get maybe 20% of holders plus to sell to get there ?

These guys do this for a living guess they will have this gamed out