Member Info for Okehurst1

Think so Sb

Unless Apollo find a big red flag and same time are commercial with their opening salvo then THG get an offer

Our Chairman noted in the annual accounts that £1.70 a share undervalued the business

The BoD/ II’s rolling then the price Apollo pay is subjective, its not even a fiduciary concern as it’s Apollo buying in the market

It’s up to us the shareholders who are the market to make the call on the price , we except or not.

The Bloomberg piece was telling last week, effectively a £1.80 Bid price, it’s sits above the Chairman’s statement and it may be enough to get the consortium to the magic number of 75.1%

Not long to wait

Personally I think it’s highly likely we get an opening Bid off Apollo, it’s just at what price ?

Problem for anyone trading in / out this stock you can can get caught and be out the market when the announcement comes, point being I don’t think it’s Shorts as such but Traders doing what they do - no problem btw that’s their call

Ste

We had this chat back the end of December at 40p

It’s a win win

Was then and still is …

The smart money saw all this and loaded up Q1 and we jumped 100%

They either rein in Ingenuity or sell something or part of to fund Ingenuity or they do a left field style deal with another PE like Qatar boys, they will have a plan B but it won’t be the City

Ste

Btw don’t disagree with your gist below

Suggest Apollo asked for more time and THG refused

Put up or shut up time for Apollo

Ste

Kings street and Candyman were non deals - debt funded THG couldn’t service the debt

Apollo is in effect a ‘secondary ‘ cash deal

Problem for BoD is they need 75.1% so Apollo have to pay up, they ain’t buying the whole company, there’s not much MM can do about that important point either Apollo pay or walk it’s binary

THG ain’t a zero, we ain’t losing all our money with no deal

it’s 20p ish off here and £1 plus us , that’s the 5/1 shot on your risk capital , £3.7B EV and it’s even better

If we get no offer the BoD will have to consider another event, MM will have a plan B and your stake money goes again

I think Sparta traded Ste

They were in there and for whatever reason stayed under the 1% - no idea why

THG ain’t going bust so it’s about short term downside and maybe that’s 20p as a cash figure with no deal ? Fair comment and it’s under the price before the Apollo RNS

With a deal it could be £1 up

That’s how I measure my risk … risk / reward

Am up 100% since Xmas and on £2 give or take I get a 400% my money ,it’s what returns / risk profile for the individual and here with no deal it’s 20p down but massive return IF an offer is made

Yeah

Let’s see who traded

Negotiations ongoing …. 5/1 shot minimum here

Could be close to 8/1 bet but you get your stake back to go again if you have patience

Suggest it’s the way to look at this one, yes there are risks but it’s managed risk

MM/ BoD/ rolling II’s need 75.1% to get a deal over the line

that’s the key number for us PI’s, they don’t have that percentage so Apollo have to stump up pro rata £EV valuation or walk for good as a deal will be done with others - in whatever format

Not like for like industry but look at the comment regarding the threshold to get the offer agreed

‘CK Asset Holdings, the vehicle controlled by Li Ka-shing, one of Asia’s richest men, has offered 80p in cash for each share in Civitas Social Housing’

Michael Wrobel, chairman of Civitas, said that CK’s offer “undervalues the long-term prospects of Civitas” but recommended that its shareholders accept the proposal anyway.

“Moreover, CKA, as a current investor in the social housing sector, has a detailed understanding of the attractive fundamentals of the real estate [market] and the expertise of the management team.” If 75 per cent of shareholders back the sale, it is expected to complete this summer.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0628046e-eea9-11ed-87b0-716b9284a2b0?shareToken=5c39266ed8e33226224d0303beaa74bc

If we get no offer It’s 20p down from here to potentially

£1 to £1.70 upside, that’s decent odds - 5 to 1 even on the low end £EV level

We had similar analogies of the share price action at 40p just a few months ago, the smart II money moved in then and have kept adding, appreciate it’s about personal risk/ reward but this is stacked nicely, one way or another an event has to happen to fund Ingenuity - this is the key point operationally

Can’t disagree with your reasoning on the share price movement as it’s fact, no RNS this morning then negotiations ongoing

Nb I wonder if Apollo asked for more time ? THG said no ?

It’s now in Apollo’s court - always was - but they only have

5 days including the weekend -being 3 trading days for us -,to make their mind up will they Bid to the minimum price the BoD will present to the shareholders ? Don’t forget MM/ BoD are not selling up it’s about getting to 75.1% minimum

If they don’t Bid they can’t come back into the game for 6 months which by then it will be too late they miss the boat

5 to 1 punt is how I see it but if it doesn’t come off this week you get to go again as a deal of sorts has to happen

We were 40 odd pence just over 18 weeks ago

Still up 100% since then

If there was no deal we would have been told, the takeover panel / THG lawyers would have insisted

Ovs some risk but the downside is limited now to maybe 20p and slightly below the Apollo interest 70p ish

The upside is potentially £1 to £1.70 vs a 20p downside

Apollo make an offer and THG drop a quick RNS then us PI’s miss an opportunity

Just 3 trading days to go, that’s it .

Yeah

Taking the view the Apollo bid is passive with BoD support - not hostile so to speak - as they are rolling / partners post deal

Hi 1 Pencil , agree on Golden Share

My understanding is 75.1% and a scheme of arrangement on the balance is possible

Ha! How could they exit without us knowing ?

See the box top right ?

Says RNS

They have to inform the market via that box if they buy / sell shares

Chill out it’s just traders / quants playing the market

We could get a positive intra day RNS/ COP, 7am and you miss the bounce up, just like 2 weeks ago

…to buy

Strange how they knew in advance ?

On March 23rd Bloomberg T updated to show

Vanguard reduced by 11,802,573 to 24,267,609

They have reversed that position over the past 5 weeks - especially just before the RNS /Apollo -,and although small in comparison added again Friday just gone

Follow the money

My view from January this year - the TA confirmed it

We don’t have the balance sheet to action the business plan around Ingenuity so logically an ‘ event ‘ had to happen - it was not possible to raise capital from the City in the present structure

We are up 130% from where we stood last week December as the market realised the above

The ‘ event ‘ is now playing out

There is risk /reward here but another 100% to 150% plus jump from the current share price is highly feasible, the downs side? Maybe 40% Short term

It’s still a nice bet / play for us PI’s

Yeah but the market ultimately decides

If it’s too low the non rolling II’s won’t accept the BoD and no deal, again if it’s too low a 3rd party can counter bid if it thinks there is value.

Apollo have to start with a price, similar to Wood Group for example - they were worked up 5X and they still ain’t over the line

THG BoD will be advised by their lawyers is the offer / terms reasonable and if so the market is informed and away we go

There is no fiduciary responsibilities as the final price accepted by the market is outside the control of the BoD

It’s a secondary purchase from one shareholder to another, nowt to do with the Company itself

Rock
Think you need to look at this differently

THG BoD will have agreed in principle via a shareholder agreement(SA) with Apollo - the price has nothing to do with the company - in fact THG has nothing to do with this transaction other than the link of existing shareholders and their SA with Apollo

MM will have also have his own personal agreement and that will have been agreed in principle alongside the SA before Apollo committed £1M plus for the DD - mainly his carry and possibly good leaver / bad leaver stuff, in affect he is warranting nothing as he getting nothing from the transaction

Don’t think the GS is relevant/ material anymore, put aside 16 weeks to expiry

It’s just what price we get from Apollo and do we get a counter bid ? Or can non rolling II’s squeeze a bit more ?

Soon find out