Member Info for Okehurst1

My thoughts 1 pencil

The directors would be personally liable if they were withholding information that Apollo had walked.

Talks continue until we know otherwise one way or another

Think we can all agree Apollo ain’t the Candyman or Iain Mc doing a leveraged buy out

If they were out we would know - takeover panel are strict on this stuff as are the Company lawyers

So discussions are on going

With no deal whats the downside from 90p? 60p , 70p? But for how long ?

What’s the upside from 90p? £1.80 to £2.50 maybe ?

Risk / reward is stacked in our favour - there is a risk but the upside is 90p to £1.60 to 30p downside

Talks continue, decent odds on a binary bet

Blackrock for example ….

Yes, apologies, discussions continue.

Todays fall was helpful for all parties in a perverse way, focuses the mind on what the decision makers actually want / prepared to budge to.

Ste, deal still on till we hear otherwise

The takeover panel would have been onto to THG - asking if the deal was off to update market

One RNS or Sky news story and you miss it

Appreciate risk here but it’s not over yet

Agree Hosia

I disagree

MM doesn’t want £2, lower the better on a personal level for him.

He wants a deal the II’s not rolling will except and his Carry - and that of his management team - he can make money on

Same time Apollo are happy with their risk/ reward ratio

If the deal was dead we would have heard

Appreciate it’s binary but I think we will get an offer, then it gets interesting

I would take Sky news over Bloomberg regarding THG

Keep an eye on Blackrock

They keep adding

Follow the $$

As below guys

Hope this helps your trading

£2.7B

Have you seen Mouldings Insta post - just

He’s working out in the gym

IG just distributed to premium accounts
Anyone would see this link

‘THG Unlikely to Close a Deal With Apollo Seeing Profitable Exit
(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- THG seems unlikely to accept a takeover bid from Apollo Global Management and for the latter to make a return, based on our sum-of-the-parts valuation, which is below any acceptable scenario for THG shareholders. This makes us question the viability of Apollo's takeover intentions. (05/04/23)
THG May Be 30% More Valuable Broken Up’

They then go into detail, why Apollo offer won’t be accepted

It’s an opinion by Bloomberg Intelligence

Bloomberg research just published below and IG premium accounts just received, worth a read

file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/1e/14/79CDE9DE-E712-4C11-A0DD-A3F266D02B6A/THG%20Unlikely%20to%20Close%20a%20Deal%20With%20Apollo%20Seeing%20Profitable%20Exit.pdf

Posted earlier …

MM/Apollo only need 50% of the 50% not rolling to take £EV £2.50 and they have their prize - 75% threshold

Would £EV plus 10% completely nail it for all parties ? However go for £EV first and tweak if they are close to 75% ?
Ovs if they exceed the 75% no need to ?

Think we can assume MM has reached personal terms it’s just the £price for all of us who are part of the 50%

I think we have to work on £EV valuation and premium on top as the best metric

Start with £3.7B EV

In theory we should be paid a premium to give up our shares is how the II’s will see it

What is that premium ? 10% ? 20% ?

Because MM / rolling investors have a min 40% equity - maybe close to 50% if Baldertons roll - they only need 25% of the balance and they secure their objective

Gut feel £2.50 would get them the 25% they need

Pearl
There is no MBO, never was, THG can’t carry the debt

No way was Moulding walking, plus the GS is kind of irrelevant at this stage so his stake matters to get to 75.1%

There are no issue of new shares so to speak its a secondary take out

Apollo know him well, they are technically insiders a £560M Bond gives them a seat at that table, if they couldn’t work with MM they wouldn’t be this far down the road, they softened up him with the covenant lite structure 6 months ago

Agree on the price btw

Reckon Moulding finally crossed the line to go with Apollo sometime last few months, he just had enough of the public markets and the Golden Share is pretty much gone

He’s a control freak - a good one commercially Tbf -he wanted to stay on and he didn’t want Apollo controlling him / THG

Apollo know him well - £560M Bond confirms that

He feels comfortable with Apollo, why risk it with an unknown entity ? He couldn’t risk waiting 16 weeks

Apollo know they have to pay up to pick up a big secondary stake, MM and employees have skin in the game, banking in place, they ‘ only ‘ need to double their $$ over 5 years

Point being, MM has crossed the line and has reached terms probably by a Shareholder Agreement plus personal remuneration on a Carry, we just await the Apollo price to take us to the moon and back, it’s coming

Personal opinion

I can’t see Balderton rolling, they have to repay their LP’s, could be wrong

West Coast
Sofina
THG staff / MM
QIA

Ballpark …. 40% in the can to Roll with Apollo ?

They need to pay £EV or close to get to 75.1% or it gets messy

That’s my take

What a day !

Sparta have ‘bagged plus ‘on their last what 5 deals ?

Smart boys

They waited last minute …

Franky playing games