Member Info for Okehurst1

Hi Steve :-)

3 bagger coming Home

https://youtu.be/RJqimlFcJsM

No news at all

Offer gets close to £1 quid

No news is ok news

Hi HH

Looks that way.

Nearing the end game at last

Feels that way Ste

Something stirring

Of course they have to declare

Thinking … they were awaiting any deal last time after the company lawyers said no to the debt funded offer, they knew we didn’t of course

This time it’s cash funded - company not being burdened with debt

If there were red lines would they have filed today or wait till Tuesday ?

If the BoD thought this wasn’t going to happen would they bother with that RNS today ?

If you had ‘ red line ‘ issues you would hold back ?
They have got till Tuesday

Trivia question.

Who in Mouldings family only got 1 share off him?

Stand corrected … I don’t remember the BoD listing their holdings collectively or individually via a Form 8 RNS when we had the Iain McDonald Bid last year

Offer getting closer

Longer this goes more chance we have a deal as we head to the end date - Shorts know that
Risk reward moving in favour of the Longs

There will be money on the sidelines waiting to move in as well.

Shorts have to get out

It could be a bagger from here

Still got 7M shares to close

No news is ok news

DD complete, suggest HOT’s as well - Head of Terms

MM needs a deal, Apollo own the £560M Bond they know THG well would have been in DD since last summer when the Bond terms changed

They will be thrashing out the Shareholder agreement
it’s down in the weeds stuff as it’s personal to MM / his team as they ain’t selling, so it won’t be anything that affects us - secondary holders directly

Existing shareholders who are rolling won’t let Apollo have preference debt other than the Bond in place, we are classed as secondary holders in this case.

They will know the indicative price to go public on, the lower the better for MM as he makes more on his ‘carry’

They will have a sliding scale if they have to pay the higher range this will of course affect MM’s ‘ carry’ but the II’s who
are exiting will put up a decent fight to get Apollo to pay more

If Apollo walks who cares , MM gets dealt with via an EGM and the Company unlocks shareholder value - we all know how that can happen as per Kelso RNS’s

Qube are Quant/ Algo traders ?

Let them knock themselves out

Notifiable Shorts need 28M shares to exit

Then we have the Shorts under .5%

Marshall had an average of 90p on their Short - someone posted their trades

So they never made a dime on THG and paid interest to the lender and they still have 7M shares to buy to fully exit

The other shorts must be looking over their shoulder

Ste, your putting logical theories out there, agree on the gist

Suggest there is a chance they pitch at a price they don’t need to come back to raise

If they go low and raise once it ends up like the Wood Group

THG said £1.70 was too low last year, debts lower now, macro improved, margins improving although it was debt backed

£1.90 could get them where they need to be - enough take it

Not a given but there is a chance

Yeah above 2% defo
I think they are closer to 2.9%

They are hiding their stake but use same brokerage for trades

Let’s see latest Friday

Ste

Sparta sitting over 2%

The risk/ reward is decent for us Longs - high chance of a deal

Its now a question of how much we get per share - how close to enterprise value of the mooted £3.7B

A few weeks ago I would have said £1.50 as the opening gambit but as Apollo are only buying a percentage - maybe 60% of the total shares and management team / staff are rolling - gut feel I think they pitch at £1.75 and they test the water

Worse case for them financially it all ends with a £2 …

Ste,
Good balanced post

Be it the FT SOTP valuation at £3.7B

Or FCF with 10% annual growth then Apollo should be paying £2 plus for the opportunity