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Worth googling Prof Sir John Bell this morning In The Sun...reported as stating that people could be given a 3 month freedom pass if tested positive and having quarantined for 2 weeks. Could open up society and get people back into cinemas, football grounds etc. Seems like official recognition of 3 months of antibody status is finally here.

People can get this status recognised by either having the vaccine or by having had Covid - either of which will be confirmed presumably with an antibody test. He was also talking about people being tested every few days ... this is clearly seen by the government as the way to open up the economy again. The article goes on to say that he states ‘This policy would lead to people queuing for tests, rather than avoiding them’

This does feel like a game changer in terms of officially recognising that antibodies do indeed confer a period of at least 3 months immunity, and that the government is happy to enshrine this in policy.

Strong Buy and GLA

Ha! No chance of 65p let alone 55p I thought today. Equally 135p not so likely by Friday!

Happy to be wrong twice in a week.

Massively oversold IMHO ... yesterday we were lamenting a month or two’s delay until an antigen test might be under our belts - now having the antibody test rolling off the presses in increasing monthly volume warrants a 30% + intraday drop!

Crazy crazy world here on AIM.

If they're working out the payment system and the ES spec then there will one along soon...

Or possibly like buses, three?

And on top of that RegulatorUK you won a handy top up to your ODX fund this morning!

Way to go!

Although interestingly sniffer dogs have come out as being even more accurate and speedy than PCR, picking up newly infected people whose viral load was even undetectable on PCR. (This was discovered when these people subsequently became symptomatic and were retested with PCR). Fascinating. Sadly (or not for our antigen testing income) sniffer dogs are too expensive to train for mass testing. But nature is a wonderful thing - much more so than we know!

If you click into the bidstats post of 12:02 today and scroll to the bottom to the link to health.atamis.co.uk - which is the procurement site for the NHS 'family' - and 'view live opportunities', the first opportunity that comes up is 'LFT Testing Solutions' - the bidding is open on 9 Nov til 23 Nov.

I tried viewing associated documents but they are not available. It may be that you need to register your interest and they are then sent.. (possibly with related NDAs)

Anyone with more procurement experience?

?? = winking grinning smiley face!

You know where to multiply that handy top up then, eh?

??

And I imagine PHE / Porton Down were asked to do some quick and dirty testing on Innova etc to make sure they passed basic standards of usefulness, at least

I took that very positively… I think Boris is desperate to announce the UKRTC successful collaboration, and has put the Innova test in place as a stopgap. He’s keen to be able to share some development and good news around testing, as throwing money at this is what he does ..Numbers of tests are still being used as a metric for success and activity, almost regardless of their usefulness. (And I’m not saying the Innova tests are or aren’t useful - that’s another discussion)

Boris knows what is coming (mass LFT testing with home produced products) and probably judged it expedient to use up some political capital in announcing it in his speech at a time when he’s under such pressure, knowing that he is slightly conflating the combined qualities of Innova / LFTs / mass testing / self use testing but judging (as ever) that is fine detail which most of the great British public won’t be worried about.

It can only be fantastic (confirmation) ‘news’ for us.

Don’t worry - they have explained that they are using the Fortress test as it’s okay for prevalence studies (it doesn’t matter if it’s not super-accurate for prevalence purposes) but it is recognised that it’s not accurate enough for individual clinical use.

97p now

Fair comment - I see how can that be misinterpreted.

He did say two things - the three machines that were required to go up to .5M tests would be in (although not started up) by the end of October, and that he hoped to 'start the procurement process this month' for the greater increase to 2 - 2.5M tests.

I hope that is a clearer representation - the point being that the huge ramp in capacity would not be being contemplated (and actioned) without reason to think that it could be used in the future for recurring revenue streams. (which CK confirmed during the Q&A session with Paul Hill of Vox Markets).

And he was hoping to procure that massive increase in capacity by end of October, so possibly in time for the 28th October. To me that is a lot more significant than the fine detail of test orders. It is a massive vote of confidence in a much larger future and MCAP.

Bear in mind he wouldn’t make that capital outlay if he didn’t feel it was justified for times of Covid and times beyond. He has said as much in his presentation.

I’m reasonably sure - as are many holders here - that we will sell as much as we can produce - the constraint is capacity, not demand. Addressing that issue by the end of October if we manage to do so will be the game changer I think.

Don't forget the fundamental message (their note 14 July)

Valuation
Our target price remains under review given the difficulty at this time of forecasting the
potential revenues of SARS-CoV-2 antibody and antigen tests (both lab-based as well as
POC tests in the case of Mologic’s and the POC test manufactured for the UK-RTC) with
any degree of accuracy.

As described in our research of 19 June, based on a capacity utilisation rate of 10-50% of
the expanded capacity for COVID-19 lateral flow device and ELISA test,
?Annualised revenue and gross profits for COVID-19 lateral flow tests (before labour
costs) could range from £7.9m to 39.5m and £4.0m to £20.0m, respectively.

?Annualised revenue and gross profits for ELISA antibody and antigen tests (before
labour costs) could range from £16.3m to £81.3m and £8.1m to £40.6m, respectively.

These are huge ranges but they are all big numbers.

And then think about what we heard from the horses' mouth (sorry Colin!) only a day or two ago.

The rest is games, I imagine. But can be very expensive games for any of us....

What was the gist please? I'm catching up and couldn't see it in my last 30 mins' worth of back reading to this morning around the open.

Thanks

Colin mentioned twice that they are very well connected with the WHO. And not just in relation to CD4. Being a known and proven player in this market is extremely valuable.

And essentially it's for a University of Southampton charity I believe, which is a little bizarre....

Superdry sales dropped during COVID as expected but online up 93%

Sadly you may be right but it is so obviously a fishing trip that I would have hoped that those who are making judgements (as we all are of course) will see it for what it is.