focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
If you click into the bidstats post of 12:02 today and scroll to the bottom to the link to health.atamis.co.uk - which is the procurement site for the NHS 'family' - and 'view live opportunities', the first opportunity that comes up is 'LFT Testing Solutions' - the bidding is open on 9 Nov til 23 Nov.
I tried viewing associated documents but they are not available. It may be that you need to register your interest and they are then sent.. (possibly with related NDAs)
Anyone with more procurement experience?
?? = winking grinning smiley face!
You know where to multiply that handy top up then, eh?
??
And I imagine PHE / Porton Down were asked to do some quick and dirty testing on Innova etc to make sure they passed basic standards of usefulness, at least
I took that very positively… I think Boris is desperate to announce the UKRTC successful collaboration, and has put the Innova test in place as a stopgap. He’s keen to be able to share some development and good news around testing, as throwing money at this is what he does ..Numbers of tests are still being used as a metric for success and activity, almost regardless of their usefulness. (And I’m not saying the Innova tests are or aren’t useful - that’s another discussion)
Boris knows what is coming (mass LFT testing with home produced products) and probably judged it expedient to use up some political capital in announcing it in his speech at a time when he’s under such pressure, knowing that he is slightly conflating the combined qualities of Innova / LFTs / mass testing / self use testing but judging (as ever) that is fine detail which most of the great British public won’t be worried about.
It can only be fantastic (confirmation) ‘news’ for us.
Don’t worry - they have explained that they are using the Fortress test as it’s okay for prevalence studies (it doesn’t matter if it’s not super-accurate for prevalence purposes) but it is recognised that it’s not accurate enough for individual clinical use.
97p now
Fair comment - I see how can that be misinterpreted.
He did say two things - the three machines that were required to go up to .5M tests would be in (although not started up) by the end of October, and that he hoped to 'start the procurement process this month' for the greater increase to 2 - 2.5M tests.
I hope that is a clearer representation - the point being that the huge ramp in capacity would not be being contemplated (and actioned) without reason to think that it could be used in the future for recurring revenue streams. (which CK confirmed during the Q&A session with Paul Hill of Vox Markets).
And he was hoping to procure that massive increase in capacity by end of October, so possibly in time for the 28th October. To me that is a lot more significant than the fine detail of test orders. It is a massive vote of confidence in a much larger future and MCAP.
Bear in mind he wouldn’t make that capital outlay if he didn’t feel it was justified for times of Covid and times beyond. He has said as much in his presentation.
I’m reasonably sure - as are many holders here - that we will sell as much as we can produce - the constraint is capacity, not demand. Addressing that issue by the end of October if we manage to do so will be the game changer I think.
Don't forget the fundamental message (their note 14 July)
Valuation
Our target price remains under review given the difficulty at this time of forecasting the
potential revenues of SARS-CoV-2 antibody and antigen tests (both lab-based as well as
POC tests in the case of Mologic’s and the POC test manufactured for the UK-RTC) with
any degree of accuracy.
As described in our research of 19 June, based on a capacity utilisation rate of 10-50% of
the expanded capacity for COVID-19 lateral flow device and ELISA test,
?Annualised revenue and gross profits for COVID-19 lateral flow tests (before labour
costs) could range from £7.9m to 39.5m and £4.0m to £20.0m, respectively.
?Annualised revenue and gross profits for ELISA antibody and antigen tests (before
labour costs) could range from £16.3m to £81.3m and £8.1m to £40.6m, respectively.
These are huge ranges but they are all big numbers.
And then think about what we heard from the horses' mouth (sorry Colin!) only a day or two ago.
The rest is games, I imagine. But can be very expensive games for any of us....
What was the gist please? I'm catching up and couldn't see it in my last 30 mins' worth of back reading to this morning around the open.
Thanks
Colin mentioned twice that they are very well connected with the WHO. And not just in relation to CD4. Being a known and proven player in this market is extremely valuable.
surely the idea is to stop digging first?
MW must be really desperate to try to encourage Twitter users to ask questions in the bondholders' conference call and to include such lame ducks as to whether the CEO & CFO's relationship is in the interests of shareholders...
Really? Is that the best they can do at this late stage in the game?
Maybe they have figured that they're going down and they might as well burn. Or they might be very happy with their xxx million shorting profit and take what comes as a consequence.
If I'd bought at 1400p a few weeks ago though this would not be a game and I'd be mad as hell. I hope the Burford team take a degree of righteous anger and deploy it well. If the FCA doesn't look at this they will be even more of a laughing stock than they already are.
Valhalla - agreed; sentiment is key. Short term, that is. In any other time frame, value will out. Once the traders see the volatility evaporate and the LTHs are surer of a more stable entry / re-entry price, this will resume the upward trajectory - hopefully nice and steadily.
Dear Amaja,
Thank you for confirming (!) and I must say we are all very grateful to you for your definitive and reassuring information.