Member Info for Oily_rag

Marunam2

Thanks for your comment.

I'm not a geophysicist, but here are my thoughts, for what they are worth

1) The piston cores identified C2-C5 hydrocarbons being present. This isn't a surprise as there are seeps identified both onshore and offshore and traces were found in the wells already drilled.

2) The results confirm that there was a 'kitchen' active in the geological past. It is quite normal for hydrocarbons to migrate from the kitchen until they either seep to the surface (and evaporate) or they enter a trap with a cap to hold the hydrocarbons.

3) The 14 wells drilled up to 1982 all recorded the presence of hydrocarbons, however, the licence holders didn't pursue it any further. This doesn't mean that reserves aren't there. Cairn Energy (who had a reputation of chasing unconventional reserves) believed in India and Bangladesh. Their partner, Shell, gave up on the prospects and handed the licence over to Cairn who promptly made a series of significant discoveries and vaulted them into FTSE 100!

4) I believe that UOG used 3D seismic to map the Morant basin and this will give significantly better results than the 2D seismic available in the 1980's.

So thus far fairly positive.

5) My concern is that prospective farm-in partners have walked away from the opportunity to invest after going into the data room. Speaking from personal experience, I had similar problems with a prospect in Ghana, and our licence was between two producing fields with fabulous geology and multiple stacked reservoirs.

6) The only way to prove producible reserves is to drill them!

6) The only way to be sure is to drill a well into the prospects.

I was a share holder for quite sometime but saw the timescale for any return as beyond my investing patience and sold out (at a loss).

Wishing you all good luck and I will continue to watch the outcome with interest

Marunam2.

I worked for a super major for 38 years. Mainly in project delivery but a few years as a development architect. Based in Aberdeen, Caracas, Paris,Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Retired and then pulled out by a small Qatari owned Indy running their operations in Ghana. Now fully retired, but still very interested in the sector.

Citywide,

I was but sold out at 2p some time ago.

I still follow to see what might happen.

I hope it works, happy to give my 45 years industry experience when I see misleading or plain wrong statements/assertions on developments.

Myfirstmillion

I couldn’t care less about what you think. I’ve actually done it, whilst, you pontificate.

Archeronfoot.

From my experience with a super major, I wouldn’t be surprised by a mid 2030’s production start. If the button was pressed today (and the big boys won’t accept that the prospects are ‘drill ready’) it would likely be 18 months minimum to launch a drilling campaign. If there was a discovery they would then drill further wells to delineate the field. Probably 18-24 months.

Then there would be development studies to look at best options for the development architecture. This would usually be a pre project study of 18-24 months and then there would be a FEED. Depending upon the size of the development another 12 months. At this point there would be a FID proposal. Say 3 months and if FID is positive a project to deliver would follow and typically take 3 years to carry out detail engineering and construction. Longer if the development was to use an FPSO rather than pipeline export. Add these together and you come to 9 years, more or less.

Dave M. You clearly didn’t read what I wrote. Or didn’t understand it. Also, I’m a wee bit more than an ‘arm chair expert’.

The keyword in your post is ‘discoveries’

Jamaica isn’t a discovery even with positive piston cores.

Discoveries implies exploration wells (plural).

The dream of any small operator is to have a discovery that leads to a farm in. Good example is in Uganda with Heritage discovery in Lake Victoria. That was sold to Tullow and they sold out to Total.

Having worked for a major for 40 years I can assure you that this sort of prospect wouldn’t pass due diligence. If there was a discovery, that’s a different story.

The majors are fully occupied with discoveries in Namibia, Guyana, Mozambique etc. For example, Orange basin discoveries have reserves over 20 billion bbls. But even these are challenging for the majors in terms of investment levels to bring them to market.

At 1p a share the market cap would be ~£40 million, reality is that £10 would buy the company. From my experience, hard to see a major stumping up that much for such a punt.

NO8s,

The reality facing Tullow is as follows.

1) Falling production from Jubilee (and TEN)

2) Restricted expansion options

3) Huge indebtedness with rollover required in 2026, likely at higher cost.

4) Fragile outlook on oil prices.

Taking all four realities into account, the future isn’t rosy!

FYI I am not currently invested in Tullow (was in the past), but have an interest in them m, and Ghana, as I had dealings with them in the recent past.

We can leave TEN aside as it has been a significant disappointment for a long time.

18 months ago Jubilee production was up around 100 k bopd after Tullow brought Jubilee South East on stream.

The reduction to something around 60 k bopd, after such a short time, must be a serious concern to the sub surface team.

Unfortunately for Tullow, they don’t have Cenomanian on block (unlike nearby ENI). So no second targets are available. So they are tied into the Turonian fans. It’s very hard to see how they can manage to increase production without significant new wells. Especially as they appear to water out quickly.

Historically each Jubilee well was likely to produce around 10-15 MBBBL. From the limited data available this no longer seems to be the case.

Very upbeat piece. Should lead to a significant uptick when markets open tomorrow.

You are a fantasist.

If, and it’s a big if, a farm in partner is found it will take at least 6 months to complete the transfer and gain government approval.

Any new partner will completely review the drill target and then tender for a rig. Developing the well delivery plan would be done in parallel.

The earliest one could expect a well to be spudded is 12 months. A June date is impossible.

Ramping again I see!

DYOR

Tim Smith, The route you suggest with Vance Potus and Trump VP is not allowed under the constitution. A third term would require 2/3rd support from Congress and Senate as well as 2/3rds of the states. It can't happen via the ballot box.

What mess did Biden leave? Low unemployment booming stock market.

The Orange Clown is destroying that inheritance and lining his pockets as the World looks on with utter disbelief!!

Interesting perspective. From my 45 years in the industry, and having been involved in both farm ins and farm outs, I have real doubts that this is going anywhere.

And by the way, I would love this to succeed. I was invested, but got out a little over a year ago because of my doubts and swallowed the loss.

This story has been going on for the best part of ten years. If the prospects were in an existing producing basin the dynamics would be very different.

The problem is that an entire industry would need to be created and that is a major barrier. The super majors are driven by either mammoth discoveries (Guyana,Namibia etc) or ILD (infrastructure led development). I’d be very surprised if one stepped in to do a deal in this environment with company that has a market cap of around £1M. But hey, I

could be way off on this!!

Keep pumping. It’s cheap because it has little or no value.

I keep an eye on the share to see if there is a future investment opportunity. I have watched as investors have been sucked in by the rampers and feel for those investors who have been duped.

PS Your post from 8th November hasn't aged well!

PPS Bye!

The latest RNS just about says it all. Nobody in the frame for Jamaica (as I've said in the past why would somebody farm in to a company with a MC of diddly squat and carry them?). The receivables from Egypt are a bit like 'the cheque is in the post'.

Rampers have vanished after talking the share price up. I'm so glad I cut my losses 6 months ago.

Sadly can't see a future for UOG.