Member Info for Oily_rag

Archeronfoot.

From my experience with a super major, I wouldn’t be surprised by a mid 2030’s production start. If the button was pressed today (and the big boys won’t accept that the prospects are ‘drill ready’) it would likely be 18 months minimum to launch a drilling campaign. If there was a discovery they would then drill further wells to delineate the field. Probably 18-24 months.

Then there would be development studies to look at best options for the development architecture. This would usually be a pre project study of 18-24 months and then there would be a FEED. Depending upon the size of the development another 12 months. At this point there would be a FID proposal. Say 3 months and if FID is positive a project to deliver would follow and typically take 3 years to carry out detail engineering and construction. Longer if the development was to use an FPSO rather than pipeline export. Add these together and you come to 9 years, more or less.

Dave M. You clearly didn’t read what I wrote. Or didn’t understand it. Also, I’m a wee bit more than an ‘arm chair expert’.

The keyword in your post is ‘discoveries’

Jamaica isn’t a discovery even with positive piston cores.

Discoveries implies exploration wells (plural).

The dream of any small operator is to have a discovery that leads to a farm in. Good example is in Uganda with Heritage discovery in Lake Victoria. That was sold to Tullow and they sold out to Total.

Having worked for a major for 40 years I can assure you that this sort of prospect wouldn’t pass due diligence. If there was a discovery, that’s a different story.

The majors are fully occupied with discoveries in Namibia, Guyana, Mozambique etc. For example, Orange basin discoveries have reserves over 20 billion bbls. But even these are challenging for the majors in terms of investment levels to bring them to market.

At 1p a share the market cap would be ~£40 million, reality is that £10 would buy the company. From my experience, hard to see a major stumping up that much for such a punt.

NO8s,

The reality facing Tullow is as follows.

1) Falling production from Jubilee (and TEN)

2) Restricted expansion options

3) Huge indebtedness with rollover required in 2026, likely at higher cost.

4) Fragile outlook on oil prices.

Taking all four realities into account, the future isn’t rosy!

FYI I am not currently invested in Tullow (was in the past), but have an interest in them m, and Ghana, as I had dealings with them in the recent past.

We can leave TEN aside as it has been a significant disappointment for a long time.

18 months ago Jubilee production was up around 100 k bopd after Tullow brought Jubilee South East on stream.

The reduction to something around 60 k bopd, after such a short time, must be a serious concern to the sub surface team.

Unfortunately for Tullow, they don’t have Cenomanian on block (unlike nearby ENI). So no second targets are available. So they are tied into the Turonian fans. It’s very hard to see how they can manage to increase production without significant new wells. Especially as they appear to water out quickly.

Historically each Jubilee well was likely to produce around 10-15 MBBBL. From the limited data available this no longer seems to be the case.

Very upbeat piece. Should lead to a significant uptick when markets open tomorrow.

You are a fantasist.

If, and it’s a big if, a farm in partner is found it will take at least 6 months to complete the transfer and gain government approval.

Any new partner will completely review the drill target and then tender for a rig. Developing the well delivery plan would be done in parallel.

The earliest one could expect a well to be spudded is 12 months. A June date is impossible.

Ramping again I see!

DYOR

Tim Smith, The route you suggest with Vance Potus and Trump VP is not allowed under the constitution. A third term would require 2/3rd support from Congress and Senate as well as 2/3rds of the states. It can't happen via the ballot box.

What mess did Biden leave? Low unemployment booming stock market.

The Orange Clown is destroying that inheritance and lining his pockets as the World looks on with utter disbelief!!

Interesting perspective. From my 45 years in the industry, and having been involved in both farm ins and farm outs, I have real doubts that this is going anywhere.

And by the way, I would love this to succeed. I was invested, but got out a little over a year ago because of my doubts and swallowed the loss.

This story has been going on for the best part of ten years. If the prospects were in an existing producing basin the dynamics would be very different.

The problem is that an entire industry would need to be created and that is a major barrier. The super majors are driven by either mammoth discoveries (Guyana,Namibia etc) or ILD (infrastructure led development). I’d be very surprised if one stepped in to do a deal in this environment with company that has a market cap of around £1M. But hey, I

could be way off on this!!

Keep pumping. It’s cheap because it has little or no value.

I keep an eye on the share to see if there is a future investment opportunity. I have watched as investors have been sucked in by the rampers and feel for those investors who have been duped.

PS Your post from 8th November hasn't aged well!

PPS Bye!

The latest RNS just about says it all. Nobody in the frame for Jamaica (as I've said in the past why would somebody farm in to a company with a MC of diddly squat and carry them?). The receivables from Egypt are a bit like 'the cheque is in the post'.

Rampers have vanished after talking the share price up. I'm so glad I cut my losses 6 months ago.

Sadly can't see a future for UOG.

Garth, they also manufacture the shells for RR submarine nuclear reactors.

I visited them in the 80's and saw the barrel of the supergun ready for shipment to Iraq. It was labelled as a chemical reactor!!

16 million purchase costing £91 Million! Now that's a biggie!

Standard DD. UOG hasn't got any other worthwhile assets. This is an area I'm familiar with as I've worked in the industry (in a major) for over 40 years. Your point regarding the Jamaican Government relationship is interesting. I can assure you that the Government would drop UOG in a heartbeat if a major came on the scene. Remember, UOG is impecunious!

Rambo, just think about it. Why would anyone pay large backcosts and a carry (say $10M) when you could pick up the licence by buying the company for around $3 M?