Member Info for Oily_rag

Loads, could you explain how Jamaica licence is a $7.5 Billion asset?

Nearly 8 million shares sold in 7 tranches!! Alarm bells screaming.

So Brent is above $95, little trading over past 2 weeks, full year results tomorrow (I think) and suddenly large sells. Doesn’t bode well. Even the rampers have gone quiet.

Maybe time to bite the bullet and take the losses on the chin.

Brent going North and the UOG SP drifting. Most Oil stocks climbing!

Markets really don't like something about it?

I doubt if UOG would bid for North Sea licences, especially with the uncertainty over Maria and Jamaica.

Very strange trading patterns over the past few sessions. My Total shares are through the roof!

Couldn't agree more BlaimThrower.

I've said it several times. With a MC of only $8 MM why would a big investor carry UOG on a $35MM well (and get say 50-70% equity in the licence) and pay any back costs when it can get the whole lot?

I wait the insults from the rampers.

Loads. Hardly self proclaimed. Track record is 35 years with one of 5 majors. Reporting to board level. Project Director on $multi billion projects around the World. Currently acting as industry advisor for a small indi operator.

But you know more as does Dog. If you’d ever traded licences you would understand my position and wouldn’t throw your nonsense around.

Most operators would pay me a considerable day rate for advice/guidance, but I’ve given it to you for free.

I said long ago that Jamaica was a long shot. With a GCOS of 17% and a new country entry there are alot of barriers. The number of players willing to widcat a well in an unproven basin are few and far between. Dog has been egging up the whole thing without understanding the way that operators work and the options they have. If an offer came in for 75% of the equity and a carry (on a ~$30M well) plus some back costs it would be cheaper for them to buy the company! Doesn't make any sense and the execs in a serious operator know that.

The market hates the RNS, not looking good at all. I'm wishing I'd got out on Monday!

I guess no real surprises.

Maria divestment looks iffy and Jamaica remains the only hope for real growth.

Having said that, why would a third party carry UOG and pay back costs when they could acquire the entire interest for circa £8M?

As I've said in the past, Jamaica is icing. The majors aren't interested because the returns are too small and it involves a new country entry. So we are looking at mid size indies. As for Maria, who knows if that'll ever come to fruition . The business has to be focused on Egypt, and any production acquisition they can make.

I wasn’t going to bother replying to you, but in the end I couldn’t resist after your insult. So maths B101.

80% chance implies 4 successes for 5 tries. That isn’t 4 to 1 on.

My background and experience in the industry leaves you paddling your little canoe up a backwater. Keep shouting the ‘odds’. Nobody is listening.

Your constant messaging is reminiscent of an empty chamber, you know, where people who talk a lot about their knowledge, talent or experience are often not as knowledgeable, talented or experienced as they claim to be.

TDF - You show no real understanding of the industry or of the processes involved or what an meaningful investment requires. I really don't want to engage with you any further.

BT Seems only able to see upside without considering downsides. I've been in the oil industry for 43 years, most with a super major working at a senior level. The ramping that goes on here is staggering. UOG is a chancy play and if you think of it this way you wont get hurt.

I know what it takes to bring in a new player to a frontier province and if BL farms out Jamaica he will have done a sterling job, and I will applaud the loudest.

At 80% you have a 4 in 5 chance of success NOT 4-1 on.

Leave it at 80% that is sufficient

So a 20% chance means a 1 in 5 chance of success! i.e. 4 in 5 chance of failure. If you worked in the industry you'd understand my point. I've written on this BB about GCoS and CCoS in the past in relation to Jamaica.

Dog farther You are wrong.

Please explain how an 80% chance is 4-1 on??

80% chance of success for an explo well is sensational but for a production well, in an existing and proven development, it's what you'd expect with decent G&G team.

DogFarther, your numbers avoid consideration of OPEX and petroleum taxes as well as corporate taxes.

Jono, The Work Plan and Budget (WP&B) will have laid out the expenditure for 2023. That would have been agreed via Technical, Operational and Joint Management committees. UOG will be bound by the WP&B to fund the operations. Failure to secure the sale of Maria (which looks a distinct possibility) will mean that UOG will need to dip into reserves to meet its operational liabilities. Failure to do that would mean that they are in default, something that I'm sure they'll avoid.