Member Info for Oily_rag

Rambo, just think about it. Why would anyone pay large backcosts and a carry (say $10M) when you could pick up the licence by buying the company for around $3 M?

Hard to see how anyone other than RR could get the potential UK contract after Czech selection of RR as preferred bidder.

Earlofaim, you clearly don’t understand the oil business. Why would a major carry UOG, a minnow amongst minnows, when they could buy the entire operation for $2 Million. Also after trying to farm down since Tullow walked with NO interest speaks volumes. Furthermore an NPV of $70b is a complete joke.

You are ramping beyond belief.

With such a large fall, the bounce was always going to be quick.

Some investors simply over react.

I'm sitting on 350% increase on RR and with dividends coming soon, will just sit tight..

Where have all the rampers gone?

I almost miss their ridiculous posts.

GBHOLDS

The excitement is very real when you averaged £0.8/share!!

Ninetails, what was your biggest? I'm just glad I sold out (at a loss) at the back end of last year.

Vista, so nothing on the data room and any interested parties?

Bonkers post from a ramper.

You have to ask yourself where is the value, and this is why I reluctantly sold up in December? Here's the reality check.

For all those jumping on the Morant bandwagon here's some real world O&G experience. And as an aside where is the Earl?

1) There is no current active oil industry in Jamaica

2) The multi billion barrel prospects are just that, they are prospects in a new province.

3) Why would a major even look at UOG? If they believed in it then they could buy the whole shooting match for less than a carry and back costs

4) Majors are already extended in existing discoveries of the multi billion barrel scale. Provinces such as Namibia Suriname, Guyana etc. They simply aren't interested.

You really don't understand the business do you? Why would any Company pay millions in back costs if they could pick up the Company for a fraction of the cost? Simply doesn't make any sense

EOA. You mean the same company that put UOG into default? Don’t you understand that Jamaica is an unproven province? Don’t you understand the term ‘unrisked’? You clearly don’t understand the industry.

You are ramping in such an obvious way. Shame on

Just tell me how on earth you come up with an NPV of $23B and keep a straight face?

I think you'll find that UOG hasn't paid it's share of the operating costs (monthly cash calls) There is a regular term in the JOA that allows the operator to put a non paying participant in 'default'. The default period is designed to give a final opportunity for the defaulter to put up the funds to cover the default. In some cases a JOA will allow the operator to take the share of the debtor in recompense. If this is the case BL's new wish of departing Egypt will come to pass.

Can't really see a future for UOG, which is a shame.

PS Where are all the rampers?

TTL,

My view is that it is unlikely that a third party would farm in. Why would someone carry a $4M dollar SP company and pay their back costs when they could just acquire the entity?

The other issue is over entering a new province, although the prospects are slightly better than 'wildcat' they aren't far off it. I wish them luck, but it remains a remote prospect and especially without a significant extension. From my own experiences, the authorities will be losing patience and will demand some significant comfort in awarding another extension.

Without a lengthy extension (i.e up to and including well delivery) no farminee will take the risk. I would suggest that a 24 month extension would be required. But as you say, UOG are in a better position to deliver a well than a new entry.

Why would any company contemplate a farmin? Most of these deals involve acquiring interest in return for a carry and back costs. But why bother? You can pick up UOG for £4 M and sell on the Egypt asset.

Jamaica was always a high risk play due to the nature of the prospects, their location and the immaturity of the industry in Jamaica (exemplified by Tullow walking away).

I bought tranches after Covid started. Some of them at 77p. been adding since then. Final tranche was at 225p and I wondered if I'd made a mistake. Probably sell enough to cover my investment and then I'm playing with the markets Money.

Brent has moved up by around 16% in the past 6 months and the UOG share price has fallen by over 50% in the same time frame. Go figure!!

Loads, Where do you get the BP/Jamaica link? I can't find anything.