Member Info for Oily_rag

What on earth is going on? Brent at $88 and the SP down 13%. It's hard to understand what is going on

That's an interesting piece it implies a share of production (@14,000bpd) of around 3,000 bbls. A number I haven't seen before

Is that the ceiling breached?
TotalEnergies has been testing the 50 Euro level for a few days, breached that yesterday and now above 51. Or am I just an inveterate optimist?

With respect, Jamaica is a game changer, but only when Hydrocarbons are proved. It is a true 'wildcat' and as such has little value until drilled. If you look at GCoS on the prospects identified, they are low, very low. An IOC wouldn't consider a well if the GCoS is less than 1 in 7. So I would advise against hanging a lot on Jamaica, an unproven oil basin.

Thanks, any further obligation you are aware of?

Jamaica is a very high risk prospect (thus very low value) and value would only be added if there was exploration success or farmed down. I don't know what the licence obligations are but I would assume, as a minimum, there would be seismic, and this isn't a cheap operation, thus that liability would be on the books.

A welcome bounce this morning.
Is this the beginning of a longer term (and long overdue) recovery?

Indeed, there is something very wrong with the SP. Fundamentals are ok but SP drops and drops? The very high trades earlier this morning (and as I write not identified as buy or sell) are deeply concerning.

It's not quite as easy as turning a tap. In addition the lack of development work has probably dropped the capacity (in worldwide terms) by 15% during Covid. I feel that $100 is a stretch, but $80 is achievable

I find the OPEX figure to be way way too low. This is even lower than ADNOC can achieve for low cost onshore production.