Member Info for oiluser

Couldn't agree more. Sell SL. If it had the value some suggest it would have a farm in. It doesn't. And I don't blame anyone for it. It was a deal done at a different time. And yes. We may regret it if oil goes over a 100 and stays for a few years. Problem is it seems that politics own oil for now.

Yea. Hedges are decent volumes. Just think that 3mbo at 69 + 3mbo at 60 Is 6mbo at 64.5. And 3mbo at 72 and 3mbo at 60 is 6mbo at 66. Probably another 10mbo at risk of high or lower oilprice. That's decent risk management for oil prices.

Trumps comment that if we hold all our allies to same scrutiny then alliances wouldn't exist. What did he mean by that?. I looked to me like he was saying back off the lot of you or I will start to drip feed some home truths about the UK and France etc. He can hardly say much negative about either Russia or China as they are already guilty until proven innocent.

I think it is a market share grab. It's based on 2 primary requirements. 1 cheap credit keeps shale ticking over, hence the anger shown by trump to Jerome Powell. And lower oilprices stops the big boys investing in greenfield projects to a large extent. It's no coincidence that prices started falling soon after kashoggi was murdered. It's also reasonable to believe the US somehow sanctioned the hit. Didn't they sanction the invasion of Kuwait. No honour among thieves and all that. MBS rash enough and possibly gullible enough to believe he could get away with it and without the subsequent fall out in oil etc.

It's a good theory.

And a big spender to boot. If he was listening to his own predictions he would be 30/40% down on his initial doomsday claim.

I will predict that oil will rise back to 80,s before January is out and PMO will be looking at new highs in March 2019 with results in from the flow test on Zama and debt dropping by over a million $ / Day. Farmin news on SL any day now.

But what do I know. This time next year rodders.

That's all if you believe the us figures and their propensity for the truth is rare enough. These us figures will be moderated significantly year end. All designed to keep some scale to what's coming.

Oh Dear. Did DD hold when he should have sold. Again and again and again.

Classic strategy.

I think the importance of that purchase is that there are no TO discussions on horizon? Maybe I'm wrong in that by I think execs can't buy during negotiations.

That's not a 70% drop. It's about 45%. Still a massive drop

I reckon had oil not chit it's pants pmo would have lost 10 to 20% on what I consider a weak update. And someone leaked info to mkt.

Someone shared info and that's obvious.

I reckon spend will be 300million. 100million on zamas 2 well program and 20 mln on block 2. Then there the 80million annual abex maybe now 95million as they deferred some of 2018 spend to try achieve that 300million fcf. 105million for other commitments including tolmount and maintenance programs. The question must be asked if there exists FCF at all. As I see it the cb conversion and asset sales in general account for the lions share of the quoted debt reduction.

Not really true m7. I think that the profits over a particular amount are heavily taxed. But there is a decent gap between the recovery costs and the point where the high tariff is implemented but you're right. It's not as attractive as North Africa. I thought Zama was in shallow water. Jack up rig suitable depth?

Anyway, I think the hope is to prove up a couple hundred million barrels to pmo and sell it. The question is what are the terms in respect to selling on their stake.

Agree with that Geo. The COS must be decent at Zama2 all the same. Results towards end February?. I think oil will get back towards mid 70,s myself and i do think pmo are reasonably healthy. Maybe the update is cautious as a result of the collapse in prices but I am a bit disappointed in production and wonder about the debt reduction which seems to be driven by CB conversion and asset sales. Next year looks good for steady 85 kboed. I think they won't guide higher than that either with some assets in NS ready for the knackers yard or selling on to end of life specialists. I mentioned no names but we all know who I mean.:).

RP was 50 last year. The reason why it's low is pmo produce a lot of gas. 55 is a bit of a guess but RP won't be 60. That's why I asked someone with spreadsheet to offer some more input. Pity fernan10 doesn't look in here now and then.

I think next year could be a good year. But they need to reconsider sea lion. Either sell it or get a major to partner on it. Zama. A good appraisal could help but I'm sure that selling it will come with savage taxes. But capex Abex should be not much more than 300million. And if opex stays at 17.5 area then it will be a good year. The cost of debt will reduce by about 7.5million every 100million paid down. But were starting very high.

I'm holding shares here. And I'm ready to buy more but not yet.

Let's put that figure to the test. 17.1 opex. Approx 13 for capex, 8 for interest and maybe 3 for all else. That's based on 80000 and 7.5% interest.

BE is low 40,s. Big problem is realised price which is likely 55 or 56. One of our experts on hedging vs gas oil ratio can advise. But pmo is currently only 2 thirds oil.

If you factor I what could have been if we had achieved high guidance figure we would have 5kboed more than we do and that's what hurt the SP yesterday. I expected actual guidance to be about 1kboed more than it is.

So next year we should guide 85 and above and reach it. But that's not going to provide massive debt reduction with oil at 65. Need to sell that anchor sea lion.

As I said. PMO are involved in this. Issued a vague watered down RNS with the jam tomorrow bit pasted in there. SP going to 75p. Why?

PMO holders got shafted by inside job. This is being dragged down for a reason and your not going to like it.

LB. Why u defending a poor update. The debt reduction was / is factor of production and realised oil/gas price. And with sales of assets and decent second half production and prices debt should be dropping further. Thats why market hammered PMO. Didnt like the update. I also think that someone leaked the info to short brigade a few weeks ago. So that and poor update and suddenly weak oil market did the damage but tbh I'm tired of TD promises and vague nuances of success. If I was that interested in taking chances I would buy a tar producer.

Positives are it looks like FI is slipped down order list. Tolmount low cost good return. Zama is next news to look forward to. Year end likely more of the same.

I think the told to argument could be made. I also believe that the only way to clear that debt mountain is with discipline and that means the majors coming in and taking the lions share of it form the undisciplined players there now. It seems to be a case that Shale needs to be more than 80 to work, albeit slowly. I think its setting up as a swing producer and the big guys see that. It can be brought on quickly enough and we all know it declines at a rapid rate. If the drilling activity is moderated based on supply demand dynamics then its the ultimate pricing tool. But it needs to operate at a higher oil price to reduce the legacy debt. I think that's what BP and Exxon are seeing. One of the key problems is that shale costs go up significantly with the drilling / fracking activity which provides it with problems on the way up as well as the way down.

one commentator likened it to running up a down elevator all day long

PXD is only one I know of, some others are doing ok flipping real estate. I didn't invent the figures as its commonly discussed that the debt tally till now is 250 to 300 billion since 2010. While debt growth is reducing recently its is still increasing and that's off the higher oil price. I rechecked my figure on the average shale per day over last 9 years and its closer to 3mbod, not the 4mbod I was using and that's based on the us production flat lining at 5mbod in conventional in 2010. anyway, its worth the discussion as I'm perplexed how its surviving only to kick the proverbial can down the road and not crystalize the bank losses with the banks?????