Member Info for Oi_Oi_Savaloy

Excellent Ghostrider - all I'd add is that I feel we(general public) have imperfect knowledge of this share/company. It's the only conclusion I come to ; there's a reason why corporate investors aren't piling in at this level. I'm being cynical I suppose but it's the only conclusion I can come to - they know something that we don't.

I shudder to think about Bitcoin and Plus500 - but I've tried (just now in fact) to search for bitcoin within my trading account at plus500 and I can't find it - nothing comes up. Perhaps there's hope they've not been caught out on the wrong side of the bitcoin rise. tesla's investment baffles me actually but that's an aside.

Strictlybricks - thanks for your kind words; I'm actually in the game myself. I buy development at the moment and I've worked for some national builders (not redrow but the one that had a helicopter in it's adverts back in the day) and some medium housebuilders (rivals to london departments of the national builders) and then boutique/small developers too. I've actually bid against inland on some sites, tried to introduce sites to inland, and I know alot of the agents that inland use too and some of their third-party consultants - architects and the like too). I'm not very good at translating that knowledge into financial acument regarding the share price of inland or anything but I think I can put myself into their shoes, a little bit, anyway, on what's happening/the rationale/the issues they face/planning and other elements that aren't in the public arena. I'm by no means an expert on them but ironically (bearing in mind me saying the exact opposite in a post two days go) I bought into Wicks, not the company when I invested (I said in a previous email that buying a company is an expensive way to buy land and you then get rid of the people.....but I meant the staff not the principle when saying that) in Inland. Like Berkeley Homes and Tony Pidgeley - I invested in him, not the company - he was simply amazing - and now that he's gone......for me there are massive question marks over Berkeley (the only other housebuilder share I own besides inl). Buying land is hard - extremely hard and capturing planning is fraught (never mind understanding how to maximise the value of the land with the built square footage you place on that land), extremely expensive and often at the risk of your own equity (it's tough to borrow planning costs - but banks are happy to lend once you've captured your consent)....... I'm not buying any more - I'm overweight in them but I take your point strictly bricks. I think redrow leaving london is a mistake - it's the one place where you can add massive value (at great risk) and the existing market(s) has enough headroom to really make some money. If you're selling a house for £150psf - there's really not alot of heardoom to make a margin - the only way to create a profit is to cut costs (because the market is simply not rising to any extent in those types of areas where £150psf is prevalent). In Clapham it's £900psf, West Ken £1,500psf, Teddington £600psf - your costs rise of course but there are angles to create further value (by using transport nodes to increase the density perhaps or through cunning design, through choosing a site where you can go higher, through understanding the affordable housing tenures and perhaps deriving greater value there, by anchoring the site with a mix of uses (a co-op for example on the ground floor or some b8 storage or a dentists - I'd have said offices in the past but.......), maybe being able to justify a car-free site etc etc. loads of angles........

It's a tough one Alan; I bought in to Inland because of Wicks - him and Paul brett are/were (but Paul has left of course) deal doers. Wicks knows alot (and I mean alot) of people. I think they started out to find sites, get planning and flip them for a profit (not the greatest profit of course - that comes with building sites out - assuming everything goes according to plan......). But as with everything things change(d) and they decided to build - they did well in Feltham (the hospital site they bought - might be nearer heathrow than feltham - but that area anyway) and they were good times - but of flippage, bit of development, happy days.....but then I think things started to get ahead of their ability to cope. They're in Beaconsfield so I guess they felt they needed a site there (but they aren't many left). But working capital for building sites is onerous. And so is planning and there's risk - there's a v real chance you wont get planning - that's why it creates such amazing uplift in values. They did that deal with Tesco (which I thought was going to be absolutely immense and open up all sorts of other sites for them.....but it hasn't so far. They did well to get rid of some of their WIlton park; yes it's easy to build houses - but when you've got 20 or 40 or 60 houses to get rid of at £1mill+ - the sales rate can be tough/slow and income to offset the mega outflow can be v v hard to manage. I think they were going to really kill it this year/last year.....but corona. The master brewers site being called in - not good news - delays like that cost companies absolutely bucket loads in holding costs and therefore they don't make the decision for the next site....... They've done well to extract extra elements of income but for me it's all a distraction from the main thrust(s) - building affordable homes (whether private or affordable) and capturing the uplift on planning consents. Wilton Park - imo is a London Square or Berkeley Homes site (in terms of pricing/specification and sales and marketing expertise needed). Tesco is your redrow/barratt/persimmon non-London division market. A bit like the RAF site Inland built and sold 5 or 6 years ago. There are massive profits to be had (in the London Square/Berkeley Homes end of the market) but there are massive risks too. there are usually less profits in the middle of the road (non-london division) areas but cashflow is greater and risk much, much less. For me I'd prefer to see far more middle of the road sites than high-end stuff because overall, in my opinion, cashflow and risk is far more manageable and their knowledge and experience is absolutely proven in that area of the market. I'd ship WIlton Park out and stream line things a bit. I'd like to see more visibility from the Board on which part of the market they are aiming for too, going forward.

The only issue is that taking over a company is a very expensive way to buy land (and the value is in the land, not the people imo). I'm not sure they are vulnerable to a takeover tbh. Might be wrong. I think they are betwixt and between tbh. They've got a range of avenues that seem to be generating money but none of them are stellar. I think the Hugg element has alot of potential definitely scalable imo- that could be split off perhaps? Otherwise I'd be concentrating on capturing planning on what they have, and turning it/flipping the sites and then handing the profit back to the shareholders. Lovely to see they've got £3.1bn of land or whatever it is but it's not reflected in the shareprice rather than doing for other companies in a capital light fashion (master brewers). Why work for someone else's partial benefit when you've got 10,000 of your own plots that need doing something with (capturing planning, selling or developing). I've been in this so long it's painful now - watching over builders really motor......and us......not.

Married to an ambassador too (i think!) - so moves in the top echelons of Israeli society - well-connected nationally and internationally I'm assuming. No idea whether she's up to the job however.

Fair enough rHatton - I agree that they were clearer (but I chose to not believe it!) in their update - think I've become a bit cynical over the years with Plus. Let's see what April brings - but I think they'll definitely been v busy in Jan.

I think Plus definitely has momentum, share price growth and income. On those metrics it should be on alot of people's investment horizons/hit list to research/invest. If only we could set aside our collective reticence when thinking about the clarity of earnings this company er, doesn't provide! It'd be £25 if they would only be clearer with what is going on (of course, they'd argue they are being clear but you know what I mean).

Sorry - two paragraphs there that completely contradict each other - wrote the first then had another think and wrote the second! Sorry for wasting people's time (you can't edit or delete messages unfortunately, otherwise that one would have been consigned to the bin!)

I think that's the worry Ghostrider......that the backroom staff are no better informed than us and that perhaps (and it's a big perhaps) they did get caught on the wrong side. It'll be interesting to see if the house broker updates things prior to the next Plus announcement.

I think January will have been a crazy (good) month for Plus. Just feel it in my waters - and the fact the share price is just starting to nudge up - to me indicates that slowly, but ever so surely, people are realising that Plus is well under-valued presently.

Unless Ghostrider.....unless.......(and I hate to say it)...........they know something we don't? Who was it that said 'once all avenues have been explored and dismissed, what's left is the answer?' (or words to that effect!!) :) Someone sort of famous probably - By all rational analysis, Plus's share price doesn't make sense.....so there's something that has either been ignored or missed. If things had gone materially against Plus they'd have to release that news right? Perhaps things haven't gone materially against them recently but they've already released quite a dour update last month, that most of us refuse to believe.....! that's why that UK fund manager bought the IPO, rather than Plus; in his eyes Plus is the much greater risk (not just for the hedging issue but for the myriad issues everyone has already discussed in previous posts). I'm not adding to my holding in Plus (but neither am I selling!). I might be making a huge mistake at the current price - but truth be told - I've no idea if this is the deal of the century or a turkey that needs shooting! :)

That's an excellent summation Ghostrider imo, thanks for posting that.

If we get past £3 I'm selling! :) Praise be to reddit, er, sort of.

Could Plus potentially have been caught on the wrong side of the price fluctuations?

I note this reddit buying frenzy thing has singularly failed to spread to any of the stocks I hold...... :) !!

I've reread the RNS and subject to the Greater London Authority giving it permission we're good to go. The London Mayor gave it permission in Sept 202, subject to the signing of the S106 agreement (which is the legal agreement, that every planning application can be subject to, that governs the amount of affordable housing, the tenures of the affordable housing, car parking restrictions for new residents, and any monetary payments to be made in respect of medical and education improvements/needs - pretty standard stuff and Inland will have negotiated - or used third-party consultants - thousands of S106 agreements in the past/currently - it's nothing new or different is what I'm trying to say). This S106 is being sorted out and signed now. There is a cost (both time and money) in negotiating an S106. You simply wouldn't bother if you didn't think planning wouldn't happen (why waste your time and money?). A planning consent isn't consented until all parties pertinent to the land (owner, applicant (not usually the same people) and the borough ) have signed the S106. For me it's as good as consented and although I was wrong in saying that INL are going to start on site soon; in my opinion work will be being undertaken now to prepare for a start on site (so they'll be teeing up the architects that they are going to choose to do the working drawings, getting all the build contracts in place, agreeing sales specifications and working out where their site set-up and yard is going to be/traffic plans/health and safety stuff etc etc (and working with Building regs too of course). It's definitely going in the right direction.

Perhaps CN reinstating their dividend could give us some hope here; they might use the nominal amount they'd have paid as a dividend to pay down more debt however - but at least it'll be a move in the right direction.

Firstopthemoon - I think the london mayor and Hillingdon had approved it already - it was only called in once it was consented. That's why they are making a start on site shortly (I'm sure it said that in the RNS - but haven't gone back to check before writing this!)

Chatting with a friend of mine over this weekend - she works for a IT company that sells loads of things but her speciality is Cyber software. It really kicked off in March last year, went a bit soft last 3 months of the year and then 2021 has kicked off with a major bang and she's pretty much doubled her revenue comparing Jan 20 to this month and the enquiries, the interest, the action is really looking good for her department this year. Which says to me that that can only be good news for Acuity too.

The spread is so tight - I've not seen such a small disparity between buy and sell on this share for.......well, ever actually. That's got to mean something. Surely?

I think the lack of hedging is telling Beauchamp (when valuing Plus500)- it adds a massive question mark over consistency of earnings.