The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
Strictlybricks - what are your thoughts in respect of the Barratt results/announcement and does their experience of higher sales values reflect on INL? I think it bodes well for INL - their product reflects Barratt's mix of markets too.
WillParker - scroll down - there's reasons why written over the last two weeks (by me and Ghostrider and others). There are alot of v v knowledgable people on here (spelling!) and I don't count myself as one of those. Ghost commented and then I replied with my opinion but there are 5 or 6 reasons for the lag.
Ghost, Retired, GG - thanks for your input. It's a combination of factors that makes Plus the black sheep of the family (so to speak) and perhaps puts the big institutionals off BUT isn't that an angle for us? The lack of transparency (and selection of what to place in the RNS - and what to omit.....) plays into our hands....the share price stays incorrectly low (so we should invest) before the market catches on? Or does the market realise that - yes; there's a cost to hedge (a la IGG) but better to take the cost of hedge than the cost of a massive potential loss? Perhaps the mkt feels they are being too cute with the lack of hedging - that things could go properly wrong for them? I have to say - if it dips under £14 I'm buying but can't see that happening now - there's too much in the dividend potential for it to fall that low now imo, however 'risky' the share appears. You can't ignore the yield , bearing in mind the Israeli withholding tax (although even that's tough to work out - especially if you hold the shares in SIP (as I do and Hargreaves Lansdown play funny buggers with it) etc etc.
It's not mirky as such - they'd argue that they telegraphed the Q4 performance , however poorly they phrased it (and they have a habit of writing things in a manner that is open to interpretation, using phrases and jargon that isn't immediately clear, in my view). What is clear is that alot of people chose to read between the lines than accept the written statements for what they were. They were telling us that Q4 was going to be poor (compared to the rest of the year) in as clear a way as they felt they could (or wanted to). They couldn't come out and say 'our customers have stuffed us this Quarter, by the looks of things'.....but perhaps they should have!
What are people's thoughts? that Drum is going to be taken over perhaps? Or that their investment in Acuity (and it looks like there's some news from Acuity soon - judging by their tweet - thanks for pointing that out Optimist) or perhaps both? One leading to a higher valuation of the other perhaps. Interested to hear people's thoughts. I've been heavily invested in Energiser for quite a long time (since the energiser days - I am a big fan of Wickes and Malde - the fellas that run Inland Homes. But I decided to stay in because this covers my 'v risky' profile element of my portfolio! :)
Doesn't Mark Dixon (chap who owns Regus offices) own a bucket-load of INL, and he's been selling for ages (but still has a mountain to go) hence the doldrums this share is languishing in? Or did he sell out successfully? other than that I've no idea but it just doesn't seem to be going anywhere - I'm a long term holder but starting to get itchy feet.
With crypto going through the roof, could it be that Plus on the wrong side of the huge gains seen perhaps?
Yes - I'm tremendously pessimistic.....! Sorry. :)
Yes Ghostrider - I hesitated too, to write it (because of the inevitable racist elements to it) but there we are - sometimes you've got to put yourself out there (because I think pertinent to the analyst's criteria when assessing the stock). On the divi front - I think there will be a special too. Q4 is going to be interesting reading - they'll argue that they warned people that q4 was going to be bad (if it is bad) by saying they consistently re-stated their end of year performance (despite people saying 'that can't be, that would mean they do literally nothing in q4) from the outset (and there hasn't been an RNS to update performance, note too. And if the performance has been stellar, on the flip side, which is what I think it'll have been, I'd thought they'd have updated the market (but maybe not? interested to hear other people's opinions).
Ghostrider - I think Plus is eyed with suspicion (and thus is downgraded on the valuation) for a number of reasons. 1 it's domicile, 2 it's lack of transparency 3 previous history of shocking the market with news (memory is vague on this one - I've held plus for quite a long time but think 2016?) 4 the fact that Plus takes the other side of trades and therefore there's a chance things can go awry quickly (in the market's opinion) 5 the regulatory environment 6 they just don't like the Board of Directors 7 the imprecise tax situation because of their domicility 8 it's a part-political investment when choosing Plus (because Israel). Others will have a more reasoned (and indepth analysis) but these are my opinions on why Plus never seems to hit the same valuation metrics as their peers (cmc/Ig et al). Plus, in my opinion, could do some fairly easy things to clear alot of that up (and thus super-charge the share price) and because they haven't.....it's another mark against Plus.
The recent investment in cyber security should pay off - note the recent mass attacks on US govt departments. It just brings the current issues surrounding cyber security (and companies strategy towards cyber and data security) to the fore. That can only be good news for Drumz investment strategy imo.
Disappointing to see the Cityam article published today not mentioning Plus500 (but mentions CMC, IG, ATFX and Degiro). Ive not even heard of ATFX or Degiro! :) (but that might be a reflection on me than the article!)
Probably due to a tax payment (that's what it was 2 or 3 years ago).
I read the advfn board for - if you can ignore some of the toxicity on there of course - for more info - some posters on there often give out their forecasts.
When's the next update? And is it when they announce (potentially) a dividend too?
I still there's going to be more news prior to the xmas break - possibly they'll exchange contracts on a deal on Friday 18th December and then announce the news on 21st. That Friday is going to be very busy for alot of solicitors - it's the natural break at Xmas (with a natural/gradual quieting of business til Xmas day the following friday.) The company I work for has two contracts that are aiming for exchange on 18th December.
Some good news on the deal front - they're all STP or Option deals (hence being able to acquire the site once planning permission has been won/if it's won). It'll take another 15-24months ish to actually see the fruits of their labour, post-planning (before the first unit sales are completed) though so this is obviously good news for 2022/23 but of no consequence now (for this year/next). Technically it simly confirms they are committed to spending an absolute bucket load of money trying to capture planning on these sites!
I'm actively buying sites at the moment Dad413252. Can't see a 'private message' function on here. but somehow would like to see the details. I've exchanged on 3 sites in the last 4 months (ranging from 0.75 of an acre to 12).
I've been chatting to a fair few developers recently (a couple of people working for the big nationals - Redrows etc etc and some much, much smaller ones that no one has ever heard of but still provide a crucial role in the development cycle) and to a person they all said that current sales and forward bookings are unbelievably healthy. Now - that might not apply to Inland of course but if you look at some of the estate agent results (purple bricks I think I saw recently were up) I think it should bode well for INL. If we could just break out of 60p.......the world is oyster surely?!
I really feel that we're due for another announcement from INL. And it might be a purchase rather than a sale. I'm not on the inside or anything, have no knowledge but it's a month or so since the last rns and i just feel INL have momentum.
It's difficult to say what values Cheshunt and Wilton Park represent in all honesty (not without alot of due diligence and investigative work into the consents, the values, CIL calculations, S106 liabilities, S278 costs, affordable percentages, build cost methodologies etc etc etc). It would be wrong of me to say 'I'll do that' when I'm flat out this week and into early next too. But I will do some work on current values. But looking into the future and where values are there? I've no idea how bad it could get tbh. It's why I like the deals they've been doing with HA's - it's effectively government money and the Affordable housing will be built, come what may. Ithink, in these circumstances, to survive and live to fight another day is more important than being a short-term hero (profit) and then promptly dying in the next skirmish. Opportunities will come to those whom survive. I'm seeing it myself - so many people and companies are responding to my letters (I write to sites each week - trying to avoid agents in the hope of negotiating direct with the owners).