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It's not a definitive point of view Sain - just trying to add to the argument/knowledge/give another side to things that's all. The land market is rocking (you never really hear about it because most people don't understand it, have no knowledge of it and are concerned with house prices). But it's rocking - there are deals being done , lots of activity. We've got a stable market, house price data is showing a drop (which land owners read), developers have confidence in the long term future of the UK/London, planning departments are under pressure from the Govt, there's an emphasis on build, build, build, we might even see changes to stamp duty in the budget. I think INL will get those sites away (the aborted ones) within their timeframes stated and I also think that the companies that pulled out of the deal will regret their decision(s). That's my take on it, using my knowledge of what I'm seeing in the land market right now. I don't deal with INL directly or have any internal knowledge of them as such.
I've met the son on a night out with a west end agent. (I'm in property development - specifically buying land for large developers). He seemed very assured, very measured in what he was saying. He's got the watch etc etc but so do loads and loads of people in property - he really seemed to know his stuff. And he knows a hell of a lot of people - which counts for a lot in this game - it's all about the angle(s) when buying and it's all about whom you know too. Whether he's leveraged that from the association with his dad I don't know but if he has - good luck to him. Opening doors, meeting people, keeping yourself in people's minds - it's all part of the job. Buying land is so hard - you've got to leverage every angle you can. I'm in Inland for the long long term (as this stage). On the property front - I think the 'get me out of here' overrides the issue with waiting times and supply. They'll take the hit - bearing in mind alot of them are running with little to no mortgage anyway. That's the thing about £1mill flats -Help to buy is capped at £600,000 in London (less in the regions). That's why you'll barely see any 2 bed units go for £625,000 - they'll get knocked down to £600k (of £599k) or they'll be £700k+ . and once you're up into that level - alot of it is cash buyers/no mortgage buyers believe it or not. V hard to sell alot of those per month but that's the game you play if you're just stuck with UK buyers (the foreign junket/marketing pre-buy-to-let crackdown was huge and so important back in the day - get 30-40% of your units away abroad before you've even put a spade in the ground - bearing in mind their contracts out there are different to the ones here -in that they are an unconditional purchase with stage payments - contracts that you could take to the bank and borrow against.....to fund your build perhaps). It's why there's such demand for zones 4/3/outer 2 now - you're almost guaranteed to ensure all your units qualify for help to buy. £600k is a big number. People forget that - they concentrate on 'first time buyer' and then £250k or something. Anything to get people out of their buying margin/affordability threshold and upwards - that's why I think the govt wont be able to afford to stop buy to let anytime soon, despite what they've said so far....
Nothing to do with Blackpool sadly Sain! Or sausages. :) Perhaps not Tower Hamlets but look at the myriad apartments at Battersea/9 elms for example. Or Fulham, Putney, Wandsworth - loads of units at the £1m level (and above) with occupants perhaps thinking 'there must be a better life than this'. On the help to buy front - I think that market was created/assisted through the stamp duty effects and taxation changes to dissuade buy-to-let investors. Wicks (at INL) - both son and father, know what they're about - canny lot. It's why I've sold out of energiser - wicks leaving leaves me uninterested in engi (might be a really bad decision that but hey ho).
Sorry - there's no edit function and pressed 'post' before doing so.
I disagree on Help to Buy - I feel that the govt don't have a choice but to renew it indefinitely - they've created a structural issue (for the economy) if they remove it as it'll cause a cliff edge, even if they taper it. I think it's here to stay tbh. Don't forget that in the shires, the way deals work can be slightly different to London. I'm talking about the large, 200+ sites here. Often they are on the edge of villages/towns, where planning permission could take up to 10 years (look at the one they are promoting near Milton common for example - they're going for 6,500 units there). the deals are usually structured so that there's an incentive, once planning has been given (because Redrow will fronted the enormous costs of capturing a planning permission - at their risk of course, there's no guarantee), the developer usually pays 70-85% of the open market value of the site (the OMV of the site taking into account a 20% profit for the developer of course). they can then either build it out or flip it (as there's the margin to do so). That type of deal rarely happens in London, in my experience. I think Corona has played into Inland's hands. Imagine being stuck in a 2 bed apartment, on the 4th floor, that you've paid £1.2million for and you're having to do zoom calls in the hallway because your wife is working in the lounge and the kids are in the main bedroom. You start dreaming of a garden and maybe a bit of space around you and then you look at houses in that price region, maybe think about adding this year's bonus too (you've been flat out through corona) and with about 60 minutes commuting into London and oh, whats that? Beaconsfield? 4 bed house with a really nice garden and the cricket and the village feel and look, it's amazing for commuting....Oh yes! Ring round the agents in the home counties - anecdotal evidence suggests that they are absolutely inundated.....Bewley have bought precisely because they feel the market is coming to them too (94 of the same type of homes? must be mad unless they've done some research).
Sain - I think Redrow have decided to scale back their London Ops simply because they know how to build regional stuff more efficiently - the colindale gardens site/development is a massive regen scheme (2,900 units) and therefore is more 'potato punching' than bespoke flatted schemes that alot of London dictates. Build cost, design, unit types - each site in London is bespoke. But in the regions (forgive me here for sweeping statements) house design is fairly standard and therefore site costs, build costs, design costs etc are far easier to control/known entities and Redrow's buying powers come into play. There are huge profits to potentially glean from London but it's it's own market - you need a completely different skill set to do well in London than the rest of the uk - (I'm talking sites - it's not meant to sound prejudicial or anything.)
I've been invested in this for 3 or 4 years (because I'm a shareholder in Inland Homes, the business that the 3 directors of Energiser were running). I'm going to stay in to see what happens but curious to know more about people's thoughts on this and Drumz plc etc etc. Thanks for your kind initial thoughts DJP. :)
I've had a look at the Design and access statement for the consent - https://pa.chilternandsouthbucks.gov.uk/online-applications/applicationDetails.do?activeTab=documents&keyVal=OWB4O2OHIWE00 over 50% of the units are either 4 or 5 bed homes. Looking at the market around there - I think (I'm guesstimating here) that those houses are going to be around 1,500 - 2,500sqft (there's no accommodation schedule as such so I can't be absolutely accurate). That puts them at roughly a £850k to £1.5m ish. I'm going to take £1mill as the average. And on that basis perhaps a plot might go for £300k or so. But a bulk buy? Perhaps £200k each? 94 x £200k = £18,800,000 to 94 x £300k = £28,200,000. Something around that number?
But the market doesn't trust the Board at Plus500 imo. There's something about the business too that they are wary of. Perhaps I'm wrong (I've got shares in Plus) however. Transparency? Visibility? Who knows - but the market doesn't like Plus.
It's felt like it's taken 3 years to get here (80p) but it feels like the share price has finally broken out of the 58-60p doldrums for good and is not well on the way to hurdling 80p. I have to say though - if Wicks and Malde leave then that's a massive x in the 'sell the shares' box (not that I've heard or read anything like that happening - just my opinion if they announced either or both were leaving).
Buying out their JV partner (and thus taking absolute control of the site) is excellent news. It means INL will also benefit from the re-valuation of the site following it's planning consent (which helps with the £19mill balance they have to find to pay off the JV partner. And the Wilton Park consent gets re-valued too (the planning adds the value of course). Should be a very encouraging update next week -
Oh so close but can't.quite.make.it!
Chumba
I think the IPO was in 2013 so they've been going for at least that long! :)
Sain
On my mobile so will keep it short - buying companies is a horribly expensive way to buy development land in my opinion. I know wick's son - well I've had dinner with him (and some others). He knows what he's about too imo. Chip off the old block. That's my opinion of course.
The problem right now is that valuation of land is incredibly difficult because we've no idea which way brexit is going. Land owners (individuals or companies) need visibility. Right now all we've got is gut feel (pessimistic from buyers, sellers are only reading the good news stories!). It creates a price imbalance that is v rarely bridged. Hence v little activity at the moment. Plus it's summer. It'll kick off in Sept again no doubt. I'm pessimistic about the short term (but v optimistic about London long term). Really, really pessimistic. Which is shared by my bosses tbh. That's why all our money is sat on the sidelines waiting for a crash. And if no crash - then if there's visibility we can at least buy with confidence.
Toad - Beaconsfield is good, I agree but it's the Tesco deal that, for me at least, is the transformational one. If that goes according to plan then I expect INL to be chosen to transform other Tesco assets. And if the model works for Tesco property there's absolutely no reason why it wont work for Sainsbury's or other retailers.
It's not just about knowing how to build a given project, how you design and sweat the scheme so it delivers the maximum number of units for the least amount of build cost; it's about how you structure the Legal contract/agreement too Just because you can say 'let's do a 50/50 deal on the air rights or car park rights on our site' - that's easy. It's how you write it down and agree the minutiae (especially the disagreement/exit/deal goes pear shaped elements!).
That deal structure is key - it's easily transposed onto other sites once you've got the fundamentals right.
Sorry if I'm teaching you to suck eggs.
And altho I rate Paul Brett, I think the key to Inland is Wicks. He knows what he's about. If he leaves or sells up - I'd be out (if I could sell!!) like a shot.
But they've not helped themselves at all with the KCR deal in my opinion. There's nothing technically wrong with the valuation/deal I guess but the whole things just smacks of something I'm not happy with.
(I buy development land in London for a living - INL are a rival on some sites we go for - the company I work for I mean - we've even looked at buying from them too - the Uxbridge Road deal for example). Not sure if that makes a difference but thought I'd best make that clear.
Sheltie - I think I'm right in saying that most shareholders would prefer the income than see a share buyback. I stand to be corrected but that's my gut feel.
If you look at the relationship between Inland Homes and KCR you'll notice that the chief executive of KCR is Dominic White. He also happens to be the chief executive of Energiser Investments PLC too. And if you look at Energiser's board (it's on their website) you'll see that it's actually a Stephen Wicks and Nish Malde investment vehicle.
So I'm not surprised that KCR got involved with Inland. It's all wheels within wheels. I've been in Inland for a v long time (over 4 years I think) but things seemed to have stalled the last 18 months despite the consistent deal making. I'd thought about swapping into fever tree around the same time......Back to Inland. Not sure what is going to move the share price if the deals announcement recently couldn't break the share price out of it's 70p ceiling (consistently I mean not just popping its head over the 70p parapet). Anyone got any thoughts as to where this share is going?
Just to add my two penneth on your excellent post Chequemate; the directors of Plus500 also sometimes make a big announcement right out of the blue (usually that they've sold umpteen million shares or something) too around the results announcement dates.
At £20 a share I wouldn't be surprised if they take some profit - and that might hurt the shares too. It's been a brilliant run over the last 8 weeks or so but perhaps the share price might drop a little/a lot or at least pause before going again post-promotion to the FTSE250. Maybe. I don't have access or the knowledge to the deep analysis of Plus500 share price.
How does Plus500's PE rating compare to it's rivals? I'm a big believer in this share but my understanding of their rivals isn't great if I'm honest (I'm not going to be investing in them so haven't done the research)
Honestly? No I don't - it's not a sector issue, just Plus500. Trouble is, as I say, despite my misgivings I'm staying in (it's part of my portfolio that I deem to be the riskier element and therefore am sanguine if it fails - it doesn't form the bulk of my investments - that are pretty boring/steady if I'm honest with you. Some may deem that to be folly (who's to say that the shares I've chosen are boring/steady - they might all crash and burn next month!). Either way - these are definitely at the risky end of my portfolio and I don't really want any more in the same sector - chose Plus for the dividend yield initially rather than the share price growth and actually it's the income I like now (more than the share price growth). Having said that - someone said that it might go to �20 a share? Perhaps it will, perhaps it wont but if it goes to �20 it'll go to �30+ and then......I'm quite sure others will think I'm a fool and that's fair enough. One of my other 'risky' shares is Inland Homes but as my job is in that sector I think I know enough about them to stay in. I've others but I don't want to talk about them as I've lost (on paper) absolutely bucket loads (for me anyway) - I've become a long term investor in many of my choices.......!!