Yangibana Valuation12 Mar 2017 19:11
I've been through the numbers and I make it that on April 30th 2016 given all available information in the Hastings PFS I calculate we should have arrived at an 8% NPV due to our 30% Yangibana North JV of around double that presented in our 2016 annual report: £30M instead of £15.4M
I'm going to attempt to be brief, but happy to elaborate if there is interest.
The PFS was for a 7 year mine 2019-2025 using indicated resources with an 8% discount giving an NPV of AU$700-750M based on rare earth mineral prices around double that today. Not too optimistic given the expected demand pick up!
http://www.hastingstechmetals.com/images/asx_latest/PFS_Announcement_-_FINAL_CL_FINAL3.pdf
Total amount of TREO mined in this period from the PFS is:
7,074kt * @1.15% = 81,351t
Total amount of TREO from Yangibana (North & West) from the (corrected) PFS is:
3,507,000t * 1.43% = 50,150t
Question is how much is from Yangibana North?
Original Indicated resource from end of 2015:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151204/pdf/433l5dfzctx7q7.pdf
2,718,269 * 1.46% = 39,687t (11,906t ours)
New resource "upgrade" (it was a downgrade for Yangibana North, but an overall total upgrade for our JV's IIRC) at beginning of 2017:
http://hastingstechmetals.com/images/asx_latest/HAS-20170116-Resource_Upgrade_Including_First_MeasuredFINAL_FINAL.pdf
2102000 * 1.58% = 33,212t (9,963t ours)
Given that Yangibana West originally only had an indicated average of 0.99% and that the average for the whole of Yangibana was 1.43%, it is very likely that all of Yangibana North contributed to the "Yangibana" pit, but only some of Yangibana West.
But let's be conservative and use somewhere between the two, leading to 11kt of the 81kt TREO mined over the 7 years being attributable to REM, around 13-14%
If that 11kt were mined equally over the period, then we can *probably* (anyone have a better idea!?) just pro-rota the NPV. AUD to Pounds at the end of April 2016 was around 1.92. Assumed tax of 30% (anyone know better?)
AU$725 / 1.92 * 0.7 * 11 / 81 = £36M
Of course in practice Yangibana North is unlikely to be mined equally across the 7 year operation. I've constructed a very simple 8% discount model to explore the extremes. I get the following valuations depending on when our TREO is mined:
All in year 1: £45M
All in year 7: £27M
Years 1-4: £40M
Years 4-7: £31M
Given what we know from page 18 of:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151110/pdf/432vrqvk2jdr1k.pdf
years 4-7 estimate is probably the worst case scenario, and what I used in my headline figure of ~£30M, but we certainly shouldn't rule out more optimistic scenarios, in particular the years 1-4, or even years 1-2/3.
Of course the above may contain both inappropriate simplifications or mathematical errors! DYOR ;-)
Ob.