Lithium demand consequences4 Mar 2017 14:52
If EV/Grid storage follows an S curve adoption, as many expect it will, we could be looking at 10 times more lithium required per year by 2025 than that forecast by those who don't really get it. So what could that mean for us if perceptions change, and all of our lithium is required, and required fast!?
From
"Drill Programme Completed at the Cinovec Lithium Project" (20 February 2017)
http://www.rareearthmineralsplc.com/index.php?cID=287&id=13535925
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The Mexican and Czech deposits have published Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources more than 15 million tonnes of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent.
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It's not specified there how much of that is attributable to REM - I'm sure we could work it out: it's somewhere between 19% and 43%: probably between 25% and 30%.
From table 22.4 of the BCN PFS. The baseline post-tax NPV@8% for $6,000 LCE is $542M. It is straightforward to determine that for each $600 increase in LCE this increases by $134M. Therefore if we were to sell for $12,000 the post tax NPV would be:
$542M + $134M * (6000 / 600) = $1,882M
From table 1.2 of the PFS the North pit contains 1,570kt LCE therefore at a first guess the 15 million Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources could support around:
15,000kt / 1,570kt = 9.5
nine 35kt/yr plants for 20 years.
Therefore with a sale price of $12,000/yr we are talking an NPV today of:
$1,882M * 9 * £0.81 = £13.7B
~25-30% of which is attributable to REM ~ £4B. With 7,777,690,338 shares in issue that is:
£4,000,000,000 / 7,777,690,338 ~ 50p a share.
And we have more to explore - and more than just Sonora and Cinovec under our belt. If you think the lithium (LCE) demand will far outstrip the conservative forecasts of ~500kt/yr by 2025, as I do, perhaps by an order of magnitude more, then surely REM is a massive buy right now? The upsides are out of the ball park - with very little downsides from what I can see.
Obviously I've assumed EMH is just another BCN, but from what we've been seeing recently, the costs could be significantly less than BCN's - i.e. that assumption could be on the pessimistic side. Soon we'll have the EMH PFS and BCN will deliver their BFS, eventually... Contract prices appear still to be rising, so delays could turn out to be a good thing of course!
The EV companies and battery makers know what is coming by now, it will be their road-maps driving it, they are not stupid, they *will* be securing their resources.
Don't let them steal this potentially once in a lifetime investment from under our noses! Of course it will likely come good regardless if the demand is there, but I don't want good, I want great! ;-)
Ob.