RE: KDNC26 Mar 2017 15:34
"CADENCE: INVESTOR PRESENTATION MARCH 2017"
https://goo.gl/zKpOsQ
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Page 13:
SONORA and CINOVEC currently valued at US$11 - US$17 some 3x to 5x below mean
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3x to 5x below mean! Taking 4x for KDNC that means our share price should really be 2p *today* - risked! Strong Buy from me. ;-)
Now of course if you don't even believe the conservative estimates of 600kt LCE per year, never mind the more likely estimates derived from the forecasts of the likes of Elon Musk, Tony Seba, then I can see why you might be sceptical. But surely it is becoming obvious by now that battery storage is growing at an exponential rate, and will very likely follow an "S curve" adoption. It's in the TCO - compared to the alternatives. Intermittent renewables... ;-)
I like to compare future demand to "Moore's law" in computers, where at some point in time it was noticed that transistor density was doubling at a certain rate (initially every year, but later every 2 years), and this observation led the industry to use this past *observation* as a *forecast* for the future - and because of this it became entwined in the industries long-term planning roadmaps. i.e. because everyone knew their peers were developing to these timescales, they too had to develop to them, otherwise they would fall behind.
This line of thought in the business world is quite compelling, and contagious! move at least at a rate of development as fast as your peers or you *will* fall behind. So secret roadmaps are made, and sometimes they get out. Take this for instance from last month:
ob@20 Feb '17
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"Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) Engineer and Lithium Americas Corp (TSE:LAC) CTO Dr. David Deak on Lithium and Cobalt supply" (February 17, 2017)
https://www.midasletter.com/2017/02/tesla-inc-nasdaqtsla-engineer-lithium-americas-corp-tselac-cto-dr-david-deak-lithium-cobalt-supply/
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James West: Okay. So roughly 15 gigafactories on the blueprints, on the drawing board rather, right now. You were categorizing a gigafactory as any installation that was looking to produce 100 gigawatt hours per year; that implies, at the rate of 50,000 tonnes of lithium per gigafactory, near-term demand in the next five years of up to 11.2 million tonnes of lithium per year, assuming all 15 gigafactories were built and achieved that output rate.
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Given what was said earlier in the interview, the conclusion should have been *70kt* LCE per 100GWh factory, not 50kt. Not quite sure where the *11.2* million tonnes comes from in the transcript, he says 750,000 tonnes of lithium per year in the audio. Regardless, both figures are wrong, it should be:
70 * 15 = 1Mt LCE per year.
Unless I'm missing something...
Ob.
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That roadmap is suggesting a rate of over 1Mt of LCE per year by 2022! Not 600kt per year by 2025. And that is from gigafactories which are being planned *today*. There will be more. By 2025...? ;-)
Ob.