RE: Of intrest18 Feb 2018 13:21
@antelope. Have you watched any of Tony Seba's talks? Pretty much all of his projections have been unfolding as he predicted, some faster even!
It's going to be a massive disruption alright, and the short answer to your question is that pretty much all ICE vehicles will be stranded assets by 2030.
Page 34:
===
Vehicle fleet size will drop by over 80%, from 247 million vehicles in 2020 to 44 million in 2030. The major driver of a smaller total vehicle stock is increased vehicle asset utilization (see Part I). Just 26 million vehicles will deliver the 5.7 trillion passenger miles traveled via TaaS in the U.S. in 2030, with the remaining 5% of miles attributed to 18 million legacy IO vehicles (see Figure 8).
97 million ICE vehicles will be left stranded in 2030, representing the surplus that will be in the vehicle stock as consumers move to TaaS. These vehicles may eventually become entirely unsellable as used IO vehicle supply
soars and demand disappears (see Figure 8).
New vehicle annual unit sales drop 70% by 2030, from 18 million in 2020 to 5.6 million in 2030 (see Figure 9). While the number of vehicles in the overall stock drops by 80% over our timeframe, new vehicle sales
suffer a slightly lower decline. This is because each vehicle under TaaS is travelling 10 times farther, and hence reaches its end of life more quickly. Vehicles in the TaaS fleet are therefore on a faster replacement cycle (in years) even though they have longer lifetimes (in miles).
New ICE vehicle sales are finished by 2024, just three years after the regulatory approval and commercial availability of A-EV technology. In 2024, the pre-existing vehicle stock can more than meet the passenger mile requirement for transport under individual ownership.
Used ICE car prices plunge to zero or even negative value. The rising cost of maintenance, gasoline and insurance; the cost of storing or taxing worthless vehicles; and the lack of a used car market might mean that prices go to zero or even below. That is to say, owners may need to pay to dispose of their cars.
ICE vehicles eliminated from fleet by end of 2030s at the latest. Given that the average age of a vehicle on the road is 11.5 years, we can expect that ICE cars sold before 2023 must be replaced by the mid 2030s. This means that the remaining ICE vehicles will be eliminated from the fleet before 2040.
Car dealers cease to exist by 2024, with no new IO car sales from 2024 onwards and no direct consumer purchases given that TaaS vehicles will be fleet owned.
Car insurance will be disrupted by a 90% fall in the insurance costs incurred by TaaS users (relative to IO), which is driven by the elimination of theft and sharp reductions in insurer costs for liability, injury and vehicle damage.
===
Sign In
Follow the stocks
