RE: San Luis9 Apr 2018 20:00
@Frankie. Pretty much every asset we own directly (the "unlisted assets") are out of our hands, meaning we have very little say on their progress, or even when they might get mined. The only exception is our 100% asset in Greenland. So in terms of taking our future in our own hands (becoming masters of our own destiny!) it's really a toss up between Greenland or the new plan aka San Luis. I'm as certain as I can be that at this time the best risk to return + timescales is San Luis hands down: Greenland will not be developed until GGG develops their area - however it isn't out of the question that it could be sold to them, or even part sold, or earned in by them, though it's out of our hands anyway you look at it, and we might even let it lapse since lithium is hotter than rare earths, at the moment, and whatever it costs to keep the licence going might be better employed elsewhere - see previous post! ;-)
Just to forewarn you, we'll almost certainly be selling out of Cinovec, but hopefully not before it's over a pound - it's the nature of our company: if we believe we can grow the investment faster elsewhere we will, and should do so. San Luis could be, in fact should be, sold in time too - assuming we haven't changed our nature by then. Although having said that I wouldn't expect to see it sold until we had regular cash flow from at least one of our other assets, direct or indirect (via dividends).
An ideal scenario would be we sold the lot, tomorrow, for 5p, wouldn't you say? I'm confident we'll get there at some point, but the opportunity cost of waiting for that day has value in itself... ;-)
Now I hear you asking so we know the return (5p), but what about the risk, and how long? A "fairly" calculated risk is simply 5p / 0.235p = 5%, i.e. the chances of getting to 5p based on today's share price is 1 in 20 by at least some measure. And the timescales - no idea, if the lithium battery revolution kicks off in earnest and nothing throws a spanner in our works, I'd hope in the next 5 years: but it could be much much sooner, perhaps by the end of this year even if the Sonora JV's come into play proper, but I'm less hopeful of that now NextView are no longer in play. Perhaps someone else will wade in though: we've got a lot of lithium, and it can be scaled: fast! ;-)
Ob.
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