Member Info for Nthoftheriver

Nice start to Nickel price this morning up to around $16,250

Shame the SP ain’t reacting as well as bitcoin. Seem so undervalued at present. But that did allow me to p up

.... The price of nickel ore in China was unchanged in the week to Friday October 23, supported by an already tight market and concerns of disrupted supply from the Philippines due to the latter’s upcoming rainy season, market sources told Fastmarkets....

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3957677/Chinese-nickel-ore-price-holds-firm-on-tight-supply-expected-shipping-disruptions.html

Well I have no clue of what price would be put on us, only what I’d like :))

However, early on my investment here (3+ years ago), JM reminded us of the value of Onca Puma when it was taken over. Well we are, I believe, now holding 3x those assets. So how much that means is a market decision. However, the fact that JM mentioned it, to me at least, means the board won’t be looking for a cheap offer to recommend. (The board have been carefully building a strong business case here, they are not first timers without any history in the business who struck lucky).

Anyway hope JM has some positives to mention at the 121 event, even if it’s just news we holders already know. Getting the message out to a broader audience is always helpful.

Well if an offer is coming, they are keeping it tightly wrapped up!

I for one won’t complain one iota if the offer is in the 30p zone. Nice to not have the dilemma of de risking, dilution, day traders or even Brexit & Trade war issues to consider. Nice!

But not getting carried away just yet.

Good luck all holders.

NM.

Agree Institutional Investors will dramatically change the picture. Finance is key to unlocking value.

2e have 2 Tier 1 assets at low C1 costs not too many of those that are likely to be shedding cashing when in production with Nickel in the $18-20K zone.

Genuinely feel with Elon telling miners to pull there proverbial fingers out, Vermelho will get taken out or a big partner will step in soon to push us to fast track this project (with potentially p1&2 at once).

I find it hard to believe we are still at this SP with Nickel pushing $15,800, but then we are on AIM.
Appreciate we are focused on Araguaia at present but let’s face it the Press News is all EV as far Nickel is concerned at present.

Be interested to hear some views on what our SP should be after Finance is sorted.

Put this together to kick off some thoughts and base it on a SP of 7p ( crazy though that is to me).
(Assume our current cash is for preconstruction works).

Araguaia Phase 1 estimated construction cost $450M (£350M)

Current Market cap £100M
Shares in issue 1,450,000,000

Debt raise $325M

So assume need to find $125M (£95M)

So say £15M from Off take then need to raise £80m

If we were to raise @ 7p (personally feel we would be raising @10p, even if it’s a premium to the SP at the time).

£80M @ 7p say 1,150,000 shares

So Shares in issue would be 2,600,000 @ 7p = £182M MCap.

Yet the business would be holding £350M just for phase 1 Araguaia.
No value for Vermelho

Would suggest a minimum re rate to around 15p (Nothing for Vermelho) starting construction phase.

Any news on Vermelho and as they say all bets are off.

Always hard to fathom daily SP action with delayed trades, wide spreads etc.

The board seem to have done the hard work miles getting the business setup and operating well. However, no doubts with the primary asset sat in Canada and a low SP relative to value, I’m sure they will get snapped up by the Yanks or Canadians if they let things slide. Think though they are acutely aware of this.

After PayPal‘a news, every major bank is having a meeting about how to support bitcoin. It’s no longer optional...

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1319043760831909894?s=21

Looks like that PayPal news has kicked things off bigly (as someone would say).

Well had to pay 6.5p for my last lot and just under 6p average.

Will be covering Challenge studies in a minute

Nice to see it above $16,100 this morning.

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Baillie-Gifford-China-Growth-Trust-China-%E2%80%93-we-are-only-at-the-beginning.pdf

http://magazine.bailliegifford.com/Trust41/

Second link is to a article by BG highlighting 4 companies held in the new Trust.

Lol, quite right DJ.

Sorry chaps disagree on the Nickel price.

Very happy for it to be 16/17K till finance is sorted. I want every positive working of us to get max value on debt and equity raise plus those off takes can get a nice price too.

Thanks for all the feedback on the call, only a small position here at present, recently taken and looking to add a bit more over the next few weeks.

Won’t complain if I’m paying much higher, but naturally would like to get more below 6p.

We would like to welcome @HorizontePLC to the 121 Mining Investment Americas event on 28-30 October for online 121 investor meetings.

If you would also like to join us or to apply for a free investor pass – click here: hubs.la/H0xXLbc0

https://twitter.com/investinmining/status/1316234778199437315?s=21

NM

Headline from FT Article today.