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savs1907, re: "Title says it all really - burning through the cash - non performing assets - investors selling - next stop on the downward spiral .15, then adios.
Please accept I do not intend to write offensive Posts on here! There's far too much of that already! So my response is intended to be both respectful but correct your apparent "misunderstanding". So respectfully I suggest you are either misinformed or just do not understand the Reabold Business model!

So your first ERROR! Reabold are NOT burning through the cash! They have SEVERAL £million still in the Bank. If you
followed the facts correctly, you would know from the RNS issued on 28th January 2021 when the comapny raised £7.5m, that very little of those funds have yet been spen! That RNS clearly defines what expenditures were planned and for which projects. i.e.
* The drilling of the B2 well. Not yest done. Cash still in the Bank!
* Seismic survey over the whole WN Liecence. Not yest done. Cash still in the Bank"
* Victory Envirnmental survey....Done. Cash spent less than about £1.5m
Then you also erroneously refer to "non perfoming assets" Another ERROR and/or mis-understanding of th Reabold Business model!
By that I mean that California has been topping up the Bank account very nicely thank you, with Oil rising from the $50/brl to close on $80/brl now. And lifting costs for the Californian fields are of the order of ONLY $12/brl!!! So you appear not to understand that "top upeffect" that Cali has been contributing and is has not been insignificant!

It's not at all surprising then that in several recent Video interviews and in a recent RNS, the CEO's have stressed the company is very well funded. What haven't you understood about that statement? It's clear from the cigarette packet numbers assumed from the RNS referred to above, they must now have well over £5m in the Bank....possibly more! So "burning through the cash" ay??? Rubbish!!

Next ERROR: "Non performing assets"
Do you understand Reabold are is an "Investment Vehicle" and NOT an O&G Exploration and Production company! Reabold has just one Production entity....California! And that's been performing very nicely in a modest way!
The remaining assets are in companies Raithlin, Corallian and the JV with ADX which are all EXPLORATION projects. Perhaps you're aware, that Exploration projects are not producing assets until those projects are completed. So given that none of those projects have yet come to fruition (despite their considerable potential) one wouldn't expect them to be "performing" as you describe it! If an exploration project process has not been completed, then Investors should not automatically expect the project's asset value necessarily to have multiplied!
BUT a number of the other intelligent contributors to this Board, know very well just what the upside potentials are for both Victory and West Newton, when WN has had the benefit of "A team" prescribing what needs to be done to achieve com

I was alerted to SENX by Charlie1984. Having since done my own Due Diligence/research in some detail, I'm convinced it's a real gem with considerable upside!!
I have concluded the share price is currently ery depressed because of;
1) It's earlier massive $33.7m debt (taken on when oil was $110/brl),
2) Uncertainty due to it's inability to make full interest repayments without default.
3) Depressed oil prices in 2019 & early 2020, and
4) Too much exploration drilling (heavy expenditure) by previous management, without regard for revenue.
Those factors resulted in the shares being grossly oversold!

But Jeffery Auld (ex-Goldman Sachs - brought in to turn the Co. around), has changed all of that!! Just look at this man's CV!!

The opportunity:
* Debt now renegotiated and the balance sheet recapitalised. The Co. is now debt free and has cash in the Bank!!
* The Bank which extended the loan, has now taken a 9% stake in the company. That's amazing and very positive!!
* The Co. has doubled output and now has very strong positive cash-flow.
* Production has grown since Q2 2020 and is continuing to grow.
* The Co. is now implementing 4 high impact low cost simple "Just Go Do" output increase projects. These target an output increase of 5,670 barells of oil equivalent/day [booe/d] (that's an additional 200% of output!!) over the next 18 months to 2 yrs.
* Their lifting costs are just $8.96/booe/d.
* The Co. has very low G&A costs!!

IMO THIS SHARE PRICE IS ONLY GOING ONE WAY!!

A great recommendation Charlie1984, thank you!!

FWIW, here are my price target calculations;
Note: I've applied a very heavy & conservative Discounted Cash Flow rate of 40% pa. So that reduces the target price by 60% to cater for the 18 months time frame for implementing the output increase projects.

So in today's values the target is:

Say 7,500 booe/d of output x 300 producing days/yr x $40/brl profit x a P/E of 10 x 0.70 US$ conversion to £'s x 0.40 (DCF effect of 100% - 60% = 40%)

So a Market Cap in today's value of £252 million is implied.

There are 1,140,660,629 shares in issue

This suggests a target price of 22.1p NOW.

IMO SENEX's price will re-rate once investors;
1) See further increased output being demonstrated and
2) Understand the upside potential i.e when the "message gets out"!! This stock is currently "under the radar"

Others on this Board have flagged-up that Q1 2021 results are expected today (Thursday 13th). And also that Jeffery Auld is making a live Presentation with Q&A's at 5.30pm Monday 17th May. Others have also said, and I agree, it seems very unlikely he'd do that live session if the results were naff!

For anyone interested to register to attend the Presentation, the link's here;

https://eur04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.investormeetcompany.com%2Fserinus-energy-plc%2Fregister-investor&data=04%7C01%7CCBRACKMAN%40serinusenergy.com%7Cd018bc11a8d54acf64c908d8eac3a204%7C

In my rough appraisal of the total shipped, I’ve assumed the mine will ship annually 200kt’s of premium 6%+ Spodumene and 75kt’s of Petalite both from 1%+ grade Pegmatite together with 25t’s of Tantalum at an average grade 60-70 ppm.

That would give Zulu a notional projected revenue of around $350m/year with an annual AIC of roughly $110m/year. It would also indicate that using today’s market price of $10k’t for Lithium Carbonate and $600 for 6%+ Spodumene, Zulu will more than break-even, even on the current area under license! I don’t have the detailed fundamentals which obviously the company has, but I believe my numbers are reasonable and about right.

I have no Idea how much of Zulu can realistically be retained. But even if the company only manages to retain just 50%, shareholders could be looking at a contribution to PREM's S.P. of around 4p/share from Zulu in three year's time! That's providing the company will be able to contain dilution and limit it to 25bn shares. And I emphasise, these numbers are based of just the current License Area with reasonable and realistic forward prices being projected!

The award of the EPO will obviously put a completely different complexion on Zulu!! Perhaps one where we’ll be looking at a Carbonate producing mine in lieu of one producing Concentrate, and that coupled with the added bonus of gold etc. being present! But that's for the future!

Shareholders I believe would be very happy with a phased start on Zulu, even if it’s seen to be a minimalist and phased approach to begin with. Moreover any potential financing partners I believe are likely to see it that way too. They are likely see the merits of investing in a phased approach. Also it seems evident that Automotive companies world wide, now see it as "mission critical" to develop a reliable and secure supply of EV battery materials. It follows therefore that PREM's Zulu Lithium will be in even greater demand, given the critical importance being placed on the supply of premium grade battery Spodumene in what is now, surging market demand with supply short-falls forecast in the years ahead!!"

Some might be concerned and/or critical that this scenario suggests 50% of Zulu might be conceded to bring in a JV partner. To those I would suggest that 1) Foregoing 50% of the asset is likely to be the very worst case scenario, and 2) The the massive upside and considerable opportunity to multi-bag from the current price, would be a handsome pay back and would justify such a reduction in asset ownership.

It is also my own belief that the window of opportunity to buy at the current share price is likely to close very quickly!!

I very much look forward to the coming days and the next two weeks in particular, with great interest!

Earlier today I read what I consider to be an excellent analysis prepared by an Investor I know very well, and for whom I have great respect. He is comfortable that I share his thoughts. So the analysis which follows is not my original writing.

"During the past two years the fall in the price of Lithium and the limited availability of finance made it completely logical and a good business decision to put the development of the current Zulu License area on hold. But with the world now having entered another commodities super cycle, the price of Lithium and many other "battery and green energy metals", has increased substantially. And there is now strong evidence to suggest that will continue! The Lithium forecasts I’ve read also appear to be very positive indeed, particularly for battery grade Spodumene!

If one concludes the appraisal of Zulu has now turned substantially positive, it makes a very strong business case for PREM not to wait indefinitely for the EPO award before starting the DFS for the original Licence! True that would be for a smaller area. But such a decision would take the award of the EPO out of the short to medium term equation, and remove what appears currently to be a major constraint to the business! If the DFS process were started as soon as the rainy season is over, it would then be possible to change the scope and logistics to an enlarged DFS, if the EPO were awarded within the next twelve months or so.

Perhaps such a move might change the project from one of producing Concentrate to one producing Carbonate. However my analysis and assumptions show that a mine producing Concentrate on the smaller area would still be attractive to all parties.

I believe it will be difficult to ship more than 300kt's/year of Concetrate to Bulawayo, given shipment is by road. So the total resource of approximately 100mt's of Pegmatite at the Li2O grades of just over 1%, as identified in the Scoping Study, would give a mine life of approximately 40 years.

We should easily have an adequate mine resource, based on what we're told in S.S., together with the additional Pegmatite likely to be discovered later when the several Step Out Zones are drilled. So with the rainy season coming to an end, and providing we can raise the finance, I question why we wouldn't ignore the EPO for the time being and press ahead with the DFS on the original license are now!

As a simple forward looking appraisal, lets say the Petalite and Tantalum revenue covers the “All In Costs” and just consider the >6% Spodumene as the profit. If the 300kt’s shipping figure I’ve suggested is about right and say the Lithium Carbonate price doubles in three years, we should be able to ship 220kts/annum of the Spodumene at a value of $1200/t or more. That’s over $240m in profit or earnings. It follows then that using a p/e of 10, we’re looking at a Market Cap of almost £2bn for the mine in its own right.

In my rough appraisal of the total shipped, I’ve assumed the mine will ship annually 200kt’s of premium 6%+ Spodumene and 75kt’s of Petalite both from 1%+ grade Pegmatite together with 25t’s of Tantalum at an average grade 60-70 ppm.

That would give Zulu a notional projected revenue of around $350m/year with an annual AIC of roughly $110m/year. It would also indicate that using today’s market price of $10k’t for Lithium Carbonate and $600 for 6%+ Spodumene, Zulu will more than break-even, even on the current area under license! I don’t have the detailed fundamentals which obviously the company has, but I believe my numbers are reasonable and about right.

I have no Idea how much of Zulu can realistically be retained. But even if the company only manages to retain just 50%, shareholders could be looking at a contribution to PREM's S.P. of around 4p/share from Zulu in three year's time! That's providing the company will be able to contain dilution and limit it to 25bn shares. And I emphasise, these numbers are based of just the current License Area with reasonable and realistic forward prices being projected!

The award of the EPO will obviously put a completely different complexion on Zulu!! Perhaps one where we’ll be looking at a Carbonate producing mine in lieu of one producing Concentrate, and that coupled with the added bonus of gold etc. being present! But that's for the future!

Shareholders I believe would be very happy with a phased start on Zulu, even if it’s seen to be a minimalist and phased approach to begin with. Moreover any potential financing partners I believe are likely to see it that way too. They are likely see the merits of investing in a phased approach. Also it seems evident that Automotive companies world wide, now see it as "mission critical" to develop a reliable and secure supply of EV battery materials. It follows therefore that PREM's Zulu Lithium will be in even greater demand, given the critical importance being placed on the supply of premium grade battery Spodumene in what is now, surging market demand with supply short-falls forecast in the years ahead!!"

Some might be concerned and/or critical that this scenario suggests 50% of Zulu might be conceded to bring in a JV partner. To those I would suggest that 1) Foregoing 50% of the asset is likely to be the very worst case scenario, and 2) The the massive upside and considerable opportunity to multi-bag from the current price, would be a handsome pay back and would justify such a reduction in asset ownership.

It is also my own belief that the window of opportunity to buy at the current share price is likely to close very quickly!!

I very much look forward to the coming days and the next two weeks in particular, with great interest!

Earlier today I read what I consider to be an excellent analysis prepared by an Investor I know very well, and for whom I have great respect. He is comfortable that I share his thoughts. So the analysis which follows is not my original writing.

"During the past two years the fall in the price of Lithium and the limited availability of finance made it completely logical and a good business decision to put the development of the current Zulu License area on hold. But with the world now having entered another commodities super cycle, the price of Lithium and many other "battery and green energy metals", has increased substantially. And there is now strong evidence to suggest that will continue! The Lithium forecasts I’ve read also appear to be very positive indeed, particularly for battery grade Spodumene!

If one concludes the appraisal of Zulu has now turned substantially positive, it makes a very strong business case for PREM not to wait indefinitely for the EPO award before starting the DFS for the original Licence! True that would be for a smaller area. But such a decision would take the award of the EPO out of the short to medium term equation, and remove what appears currently to be a major constraint to the business! If the DFS process were started as soon as the rainy season is over, it would then be possible to change the scope and logistics to an enlarged DFS, if the EPO were awarded within the next twelve months or so.

Perhaps such a move might change the project from one of producing Concentrate to one producing Carbonate. However my analysis and assumptions show that a mine producing Concentrate on the smaller area would still be attractive to all parties.

I believe it will be difficult to ship more than 300kt's/year of Concetrate to Bulawayo, given shipment is by road. So the total resource of approximately 100mt's of Pegmatite at the Li2O grades of just over 1%, as identified in the Scoping Study, would give a mine life of approximately 40 years.

We should easily have an adequate mine resource, based on what we're told in S.S., together with the additional Pegmatite likely to be discovered later when the several Step Out Zones are drilled. So with the rainy season coming to an end, and providing we can raise the finance, I question why we wouldn't ignore the EPO for the time being and press ahead with the DFS on the original license are now!

As a simple forward looking appraisal, lets say the Petalite and Tantalum revenue covers the “All In Costs” and just consider the >6% Spodumene as the profit. If the 300kt’s shipping figure I’ve suggested is about right and say the Lithium Carbonate price doubles in three years, we should be able to ship 220kts/annum of the Spodumene at a value of $1200/t or more. That’s over $240m in profit or earnings. It follows then that using a p/e of 10, we’re looking at a Market Cap of almost £2bn for the mine in its own right.

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