Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
I’m a shareholder in RBD and unfortunately not also invested in UJO. But I’m very pleased for all you UJO holders that the the outcome of the long awaited Porpant squeeze has apparently been so successful!! Brilliant.....it’s great to see!
Even more of interest to me, is the excellent example David Bramhill has given AGAIN Today, of how to write/present a really positive and excellent RNS!!
Congratulations David!!!
GLTA LTH’s. NK
I see “our” regular seller of 4 million shares is still in action!!
Looking at the sales shown yesterday on Level 2, I was very surprised he/she was not in action yesterday when Buys exceeded Sells, 10.3 million to 2.1 million.
Perhaps Tuesday was his/her day off :-))!
GLTA LTH’s. NK.
Shareant, the 2020 Q2 results were published on 15th September 2020. So it seems that under “normal circumstances”, it takes about two and a half months.
It’s my personal take though, that to keep the momentum going, AH will issue production updates more regularly once relishing is out of the way.
GLTA LTH’s. NK
I've clearly mis-read the short-term progress I believed was in progress! Of course the content of Mr. Auld's Monday presentation is now important to all serious holders!
Effective and timely implementation of the defined improvement projects is now extremely important!
With this stock being so oversold, for the patient who are prepared to hold for management to deliver the improvement projects, the upside on their implementation is still considerable!
GLTA NK.
Link to register for Jeffery SAuld's Monday presentation again:
https://eur04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.investormeetcompany.com%2Fserinus-energy-plc%2Fregister-investor&data=04%7C01%7CCBRACKMAN%40serinusenergy.com%7Cd018bc11a8d54acf64c908d8eac3a204%7C7ae3c2fca90e43f99ffae33289668a8f%7C0%7C0%7C637517474202234829%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0&sdata=vryQZ0eoOeBvrgNbz5AaLjF33XzHptUYtx2EqvRbFYg%3D&reserved=0
I was alerted to SENX by Charlie1984. Having since done my own Due Diligence/research in some detail, I'm convinced it's a real gem with considerable upside!!
I have concluded the share price is currently ery depressed because of;
1) It's earlier massive $33.7m debt (taken on when oil was $110/brl),
2) Uncertainty due to it's inability to make full interest repayments without default.
3) Depressed oil prices in 2019 & early 2020, and
4) Too much exploration drilling (heavy expenditure) by previous management, without regard for revenue.
Those factors resulted in the shares being grossly oversold!
But Jeffery Auld (ex-Goldman Sachs - brought in to turn the Co. around), has changed all of that!! Just look at this man's CV!!
The opportunity:
* Debt now renegotiated and the balance sheet recapitalised. The Co. is now debt free and has cash in the Bank!!
* The Bank which extended the loan, has now taken a 9% stake in the company. That's amazing and very positive!!
* The Co. has doubled output and now has very strong positive cash-flow.
* Production has grown since Q2 2020 and is continuing to grow.
* The Co. is now implementing 4 high impact low cost simple "Just Go Do" output increase projects. These target an output increase of 5,670 barells of oil equivalent/day [booe/d] (that's an additional 200% of output!!) over the next 18 months to 2 yrs.
* Their lifting costs are just $8.96/booe/d.
* The Co. has very low G&A costs!!
IMO THIS SHARE PRICE IS ONLY GOING ONE WAY!!
A great recommendation Charlie1984, thank you!!
FWIW, here are my price target calculations;
Note: I've applied a very heavy & conservative Discounted Cash Flow rate of 40% pa. So that reduces the target price by 60% to cater for the 18 months time frame for implementing the output increase projects.
So in today's values the target is:
Say 7,500 booe/d of output x 300 producing days/yr x $40/brl profit x a P/E of 10 x 0.70 US$ conversion to £'s x 0.40 (DCF effect of 100% - 60% = 40%)
So a Market Cap in today's value of £252 million is implied.
There are 1,140,660,629 shares in issue
This suggests a target price of 22.1p NOW.
IMO SENEX's price will re-rate once investors;
1) See further increased output being demonstrated and
2) Understand the upside potential i.e when the "message gets out"!! This stock is currently "under the radar"
Others on this Board have flagged-up that Q1 2021 results are expected today (Thursday 13th). And also that Jeffery Auld is making a live Presentation with Q&A's at 5.30pm Monday 17th May. Others have also said, and I agree, it seems very unlikely he'd do that live session if the results were naff!
For anyone interested to register to attend the Presentation, the link's here;
https://eur04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.investormeetcompany.com%2Fserinus-energy-plc%2Fregister-investor&data=04%7C01%7CCBRACKMAN%40serinusenergy.com%7Cd018bc11a8d54acf64c908d8eac3a204%7C
Charlie1984, re:
"This will move fast if you have done your research you will know free float is only 30-35% of all shares in issue maybe lower.
We churned 4.6 billion the other day.
If that doesn’t show you something then nothing will."
I'm very much aligned with you!! I think you're spot on that the price is primed to fly!! Though having done a recent "rough and ready" calculation of the number of shares in "firm" hands, I'm thinking the Free Float could be as low as 22% to 25%!!
Either way, I'm sure your overall assertion is correct!!
GLTALTH's. NK.
In my rough appraisal of the total shipped, I’ve assumed the mine will ship annually 200kt’s of premium 6%+ Spodumene and 75kt’s of Petalite both from 1%+ grade Pegmatite together with 25t’s of Tantalum at an average grade 60-70 ppm.
That would give Zulu a notional projected revenue of around $350m/year with an annual AIC of roughly $110m/year. It would also indicate that using today’s market price of $10k’t for Lithium Carbonate and $600 for 6%+ Spodumene, Zulu will more than break-even, even on the current area under license! I don’t have the detailed fundamentals which obviously the company has, but I believe my numbers are reasonable and about right.
I have no Idea how much of Zulu can realistically be retained. But even if the company only manages to retain just 50%, shareholders could be looking at a contribution to PREM's S.P. of around 4p/share from Zulu in three year's time! That's providing the company will be able to contain dilution and limit it to 25bn shares. And I emphasise, these numbers are based of just the current License Area with reasonable and realistic forward prices being projected!
The award of the EPO will obviously put a completely different complexion on Zulu!! Perhaps one where we’ll be looking at a Carbonate producing mine in lieu of one producing Concentrate, and that coupled with the added bonus of gold etc. being present! But that's for the future!
Shareholders I believe would be very happy with a phased start on Zulu, even if it’s seen to be a minimalist and phased approach to begin with. Moreover any potential financing partners I believe are likely to see it that way too. They are likely see the merits of investing in a phased approach. Also it seems evident that Automotive companies world wide, now see it as "mission critical" to develop a reliable and secure supply of EV battery materials. It follows therefore that PREM's Zulu Lithium will be in even greater demand, given the critical importance being placed on the supply of premium grade battery Spodumene in what is now, surging market demand with supply short-falls forecast in the years ahead!!"
Some might be concerned and/or critical that this scenario suggests 50% of Zulu might be conceded to bring in a JV partner. To those I would suggest that 1) Foregoing 50% of the asset is likely to be the very worst case scenario, and 2) The the massive upside and considerable opportunity to multi-bag from the current price, would be a handsome pay back and would justify such a reduction in asset ownership.
It is also my own belief that the window of opportunity to buy at the current share price is likely to close very quickly!!
I very much look forward to the coming days and the next two weeks in particular, with great interest!
Earlier today I read what I consider to be an excellent analysis prepared by an Investor I know very well, and for whom I have great respect. He is comfortable that I share his thoughts. So the analysis which follows is not my original writing.
"During the past two years the fall in the price of Lithium and the limited availability of finance made it completely logical and a good business decision to put the development of the current Zulu License area on hold. But with the world now having entered another commodities super cycle, the price of Lithium and many other "battery and green energy metals", has increased substantially. And there is now strong evidence to suggest that will continue! The Lithium forecasts I’ve read also appear to be very positive indeed, particularly for battery grade Spodumene!
If one concludes the appraisal of Zulu has now turned substantially positive, it makes a very strong business case for PREM not to wait indefinitely for the EPO award before starting the DFS for the original Licence! True that would be for a smaller area. But such a decision would take the award of the EPO out of the short to medium term equation, and remove what appears currently to be a major constraint to the business! If the DFS process were started as soon as the rainy season is over, it would then be possible to change the scope and logistics to an enlarged DFS, if the EPO were awarded within the next twelve months or so.
Perhaps such a move might change the project from one of producing Concentrate to one producing Carbonate. However my analysis and assumptions show that a mine producing Concentrate on the smaller area would still be attractive to all parties.
I believe it will be difficult to ship more than 300kt's/year of Concetrate to Bulawayo, given shipment is by road. So the total resource of approximately 100mt's of Pegmatite at the Li2O grades of just over 1%, as identified in the Scoping Study, would give a mine life of approximately 40 years.
We should easily have an adequate mine resource, based on what we're told in S.S., together with the additional Pegmatite likely to be discovered later when the several Step Out Zones are drilled. So with the rainy season coming to an end, and providing we can raise the finance, I question why we wouldn't ignore the EPO for the time being and press ahead with the DFS on the original license are now!
As a simple forward looking appraisal, lets say the Petalite and Tantalum revenue covers the “All In Costs” and just consider the >6% Spodumene as the profit. If the 300kt’s shipping figure I’ve suggested is about right and say the Lithium Carbonate price doubles in three years, we should be able to ship 220kts/annum of the Spodumene at a value of $1200/t or more. That’s over $240m in profit or earnings. It follows then that using a p/e of 10, we’re looking at a Market Cap of almost £2bn for the mine in its own right.
I rarely Post on this BB because of the frequent Posts that have no intellectual logic or analysis to support the Poster's position, but which never-the-less turn out to be negative deramps based on opinion or a backward look over seven years!! They really do get very boring when there's no counter analysis only perhaps the frustrated views of failed past investors in PREM??
I also note several Posts from the same "culprit" with repeated off topic themes. I wonder why. Was that to bury a logic based analysis as far away as possible from the eyes of new visitors to this Board? So to help future visitors, I'm shall re-Post what I consider is my associate's intellectually based realistic analysis of ZULU's potential.
GLTALTH's
NK.
In my rough appraisal of the total shipped, I’ve assumed the mine will ship annually 200kt’s of premium 6%+ Spodumene and 75kt’s of Petalite both from 1%+ grade Pegmatite together with 25t’s of Tantalum at an average grade 60-70 ppm.
That would give Zulu a notional projected revenue of around $350m/year with an annual AIC of roughly $110m/year. It would also indicate that using today’s market price of $10k’t for Lithium Carbonate and $600 for 6%+ Spodumene, Zulu will more than break-even, even on the current area under license! I don’t have the detailed fundamentals which obviously the company has, but I believe my numbers are reasonable and about right.
I have no Idea how much of Zulu can realistically be retained. But even if the company only manages to retain just 50%, shareholders could be looking at a contribution to PREM's S.P. of around 4p/share from Zulu in three year's time! That's providing the company will be able to contain dilution and limit it to 25bn shares. And I emphasise, these numbers are based of just the current License Area with reasonable and realistic forward prices being projected!
The award of the EPO will obviously put a completely different complexion on Zulu!! Perhaps one where we’ll be looking at a Carbonate producing mine in lieu of one producing Concentrate, and that coupled with the added bonus of gold etc. being present! But that's for the future!
Shareholders I believe would be very happy with a phased start on Zulu, even if it’s seen to be a minimalist and phased approach to begin with. Moreover any potential financing partners I believe are likely to see it that way too. They are likely see the merits of investing in a phased approach. Also it seems evident that Automotive companies world wide, now see it as "mission critical" to develop a reliable and secure supply of EV battery materials. It follows therefore that PREM's Zulu Lithium will be in even greater demand, given the critical importance being placed on the supply of premium grade battery Spodumene in what is now, surging market demand with supply short-falls forecast in the years ahead!!"
Some might be concerned and/or critical that this scenario suggests 50% of Zulu might be conceded to bring in a JV partner. To those I would suggest that 1) Foregoing 50% of the asset is likely to be the very worst case scenario, and 2) The the massive upside and considerable opportunity to multi-bag from the current price, would be a handsome pay back and would justify such a reduction in asset ownership.
It is also my own belief that the window of opportunity to buy at the current share price is likely to close very quickly!!
I very much look forward to the coming days and the next two weeks in particular, with great interest!
Earlier today I read what I consider to be an excellent analysis prepared by an Investor I know very well, and for whom I have great respect. He is comfortable that I share his thoughts. So the analysis which follows is not my original writing.
"During the past two years the fall in the price of Lithium and the limited availability of finance made it completely logical and a good business decision to put the development of the current Zulu License area on hold. But with the world now having entered another commodities super cycle, the price of Lithium and many other "battery and green energy metals", has increased substantially. And there is now strong evidence to suggest that will continue! The Lithium forecasts I’ve read also appear to be very positive indeed, particularly for battery grade Spodumene!
If one concludes the appraisal of Zulu has now turned substantially positive, it makes a very strong business case for PREM not to wait indefinitely for the EPO award before starting the DFS for the original Licence! True that would be for a smaller area. But such a decision would take the award of the EPO out of the short to medium term equation, and remove what appears currently to be a major constraint to the business! If the DFS process were started as soon as the rainy season is over, it would then be possible to change the scope and logistics to an enlarged DFS, if the EPO were awarded within the next twelve months or so.
Perhaps such a move might change the project from one of producing Concentrate to one producing Carbonate. However my analysis and assumptions show that a mine producing Concentrate on the smaller area would still be attractive to all parties.
I believe it will be difficult to ship more than 300kt's/year of Concetrate to Bulawayo, given shipment is by road. So the total resource of approximately 100mt's of Pegmatite at the Li2O grades of just over 1%, as identified in the Scoping Study, would give a mine life of approximately 40 years.
We should easily have an adequate mine resource, based on what we're told in S.S., together with the additional Pegmatite likely to be discovered later when the several Step Out Zones are drilled. So with the rainy season coming to an end, and providing we can raise the finance, I question why we wouldn't ignore the EPO for the time being and press ahead with the DFS on the original license are now!
As a simple forward looking appraisal, lets say the Petalite and Tantalum revenue covers the “All In Costs” and just consider the >6% Spodumene as the profit. If the 300kt’s shipping figure I’ve suggested is about right and say the Lithium Carbonate price doubles in three years, we should be able to ship 220kts/annum of the Spodumene at a value of $1200/t or more. That’s over $240m in profit or earnings. It follows then that using a p/e of 10, we’re looking at a Market Cap of almost £2bn for the mine in its own right.
Ollycromwell:
Non offence meant, despite my unsubtle wording!! To your great credit, you were most courteous and a gentleman!!
I hope your “craving for success” is sated and that you and all LTH’s are richly rewarded for your patience!!
NK.
ollycromwell Re:
"I have been in RBD for a few years, and as far as i am concerned this company has been a failure , always jam tomorrow . Look at the share price ."
Olly :-) I try to retain respect and reply with courtesy even to "less than intelligent" comments! So I can understand and share your disappointment and frustration with the current RBD share price! I would however suggest it might help you to consider the following:
The Reabold model is to invest in late stage projects which are relatively close to being brought to fruition and are at the bottom of the Value accretion curve! Through the Operators who they've invested in, they then seek to add value by proving up and de-risking each asset. The final step in their business model is then to monetise each project as it comes to "fruition"!
I'm sure most LTH's here will know that philosophy like the back of their hand!!
What I would point out though, is that while S&S have been building their (our) Portfolio with very shrewd and value accretive deals, so far to date they have NOT MONETISED one asset. The true value of the RBD Portfolio will only be recognised either by some highly publicised asset success (e.g. Like fantastic numbers from WN) or by a high value asset sale. So while you lament the company's "failure", respectfully you should be mindful that the "Business model" has not yet been completed. In the fullness of time it will be, and then we shall see significant re-ratings progressively taking place! Perhaps the difference is that some wish to "Trade" for short-term gains, while others "Invest" with a longer term view!
But what do I know?
Anyway, good luck with your investment if you continue to hold! As for all LTH's!!!
NK.
Dobry vecer TakeAimFire..........or should it be "Fire, then take aim???" :-)))
1) Its amusing to see that after a number of years of Posting (admittedly very infrequently, as you subsequently pointed out), that the "New boy" handle has been noted and commented on. I'm surprised by your decent knowledge of Czech! Good for you!
2) Your subsequent Post though ...I'm not clear of your meaning. At this point I should explain I never engage in Bulletin Board discourtesies, and do not intend to do so here! But if you're implying that my "popping up" here after about a year, has some ulterior motive, I assure you your grossly mistaken! My only motivation is to try and increase the value of my assets.......simples! I also don't have the inclination (or time) to waste other peoples' time on here with non genuine Posts!
But I would genuinely like to know from those several really good and knowledgeable contributors on here, just when Wressle is due to produce first oil!!
I also thank "Lenin" for his/her suggestion that it's 6-8 weeks away. If that's so I'm surprised it's later that DB originally stated and somewhat disappointed!! BWDIK!!
NK
Does anyone have current and reliable information as to the timing of "first oil" from Wressle?
In file notes I made in early August, I noted the following;
* "First oil" is expected now from the Wressle discovery in October 2020. D.Bramhill stated that in a recent interview.
Aside: Unfortunately I have no reference for that interview. But I think it was one recorded with "Stephanie" from the Casiopea PR Co.
Based on the above, I'm concluding we should see an RNS in the next four weeks max. announcing "First Oil" there.
Any more recent info.?