Member Info for Novykluk

ZENGAS

An excellent Post, giving a very valuable perspective of some of SAVP's "political horsepower"

Thank you also for your many valuable contributions to this forum!! Great!!

I would be interested to know the views of others, regarding their expectations for the sequence and timing of news of the upcoming major catalysts, i.e.

* Is there and expectation that an announcement of the Third country entry is likely to be made BEFORE drilling starts in the SWP?
My personal reasoning says "yes" for 2 reasons;
(1) At the AGM LK said he had hoped to announce it by that meeting. i.e. by late June and that he expected it would be announced in the next 2 months. So by late September latest. And
(2); LK has stated he plans to buy stock on the open market once he's out of the current closed period. So logically he'll need to get the Third Country announcement "out", so he can buy BEFORE drilling starts in the SWP??

So does that imply Third country entry news in the next 3 weeks max.? So say by 20th September?

If yes, one would then expect an announcement of LK's share purchases (and possibly other directors too). That would give another fillip to the share price??
* When are we likely to have news of CO2 injection progress?
* By what date is news (i.e. logistical or permitting news.......not the spud) now expected on the SWP programme?

All views welcome.
GLTA LTH's
NK.

adoubleuk,

Thank you very much for making the effort to provide that excellent short explanation! Simple to understand.........probably not so straight forward to perform then. Very helpful!!

adoubleuk, can you explain why "swabbing" is "outlawed" in some parts of the world? ................just for my understanding please.
NK

adoubleuk, many thanks for your informative Post regarding "swabbing"!!

As a professional production engineer I find it extremely frustrating not to understand any of the Oil& Gas Industry processes or terminology! You Posts are most helpful, thank you!

Incontrovertible logic Trek!!! Well done!!!
I've bought back in up to the limit of my means.........only wish I had more funds!
Only patience needed now me thinks!!!

GLTA. NK.

ZENGAS......great Posts, thank you!!!
I was aware of each of those opportunities you mentioned, but with no awareness of the magnitude! Thank you for enumerating!
NK

Wrong units used!! NOT mbo/day.........of course! My error! They are TOTAL barrels over project life.

BUT I stand by those numbers as TOTAL NPV :-)).

Fully agree jimbo.......duh. My calcs are for TOTAL NPV over the life of the projects!!!

boblondon........a stab at what the BMDan numbers would be worth to RBD

Case (a) 70 million barrels/day and 300bcf and 24.7% holding would yield about £758 million net to RBD.

Case (b) 100 mbo/day and 300bcf would yield about £1,032 million net to RBD.

So perhaps there's just a tad of upside in RBD from here :-))!

These numbers are based on:
* Oil at $60/brl and $10/brl to extract, giving an oil price of $50/brl net.
* Gas at $2.17/mmbtu
* 1000cft of gas approximates to 1mmbtu.
* Exchange rate £ = $1.35 (Assumes 2 years post Brexit the pound's value will be higher than today's $1.21)
* So $ = £0.7407.
Detailed cal's can be supplied upon request :-)).

mcb77, an interesting and logical opinion, thank you!

An excellent perspective ZENGAS, from a very credible participant!! Thank you!!

Having initially bought in at 41p (averaged down somewhat) but then finally sold out at 17.4p incurring a massive loss, I am never the less very well aware of the considerable upside which you realistically enumerate!

I' convinced the 7E deal will eventually be signed-off! What I don't have a clear vision of though, is upon announcement that the deal has been completed, what additional news will be announced! It seems to me that content of any additional information (like announcing a farm-in partner in Niger, or progress on the EPS there) will be a critical factor in how the price reacts in the first week after!

I'm personally poised to reinvest upon the 7E announcement. But do you have a view as to what you expect the share price profile to be during the first week and month following a positive announcement?

GLTA LTH's........you deserve it!!

Many thanks to miker444 and ajbennett for clarifying output numbers and confirming sources! Shame on me, given the data was in previous RNS'!!

miker444, ref your reply to ajb's valid Post, I too am not sure that the Doud Workover wells are back in production yet!!
"ajb you are correct but the workovers I think worth a total of 35 bopd net to RBD so worth having but not affecting the bigger picture imo.
But do you know how many Worked over wells we have at Doud? Irrespective of that number though, you believe they're producing a total of 70 boo/day, which gives the 35 boo/day net to RBD, right?

Thanks miker44 for those output numbers! Great! I'm not challenging them, but can you help me by quoting their source(s) please.

Duh!! Continued:

I also judge that in future when S&S have demonstrated their undoubted (by me) competence, to continually add accretive projects and monetise maturing projects successfully, the market will reflect a P/E notably higher than 5!!!

(2) So current income from California supports about half of the company's Market Cap assuming a very conservative P/E ratio of 5!!

Intelligent comments, advice and critique welcome.

GLTA genuine long term holders. NK

Luckman, I welcome your interesting post! Only yesterday I attempted a similar exercise, trying to calculate how much of RBD's current share price is supported by cash-flow from California.
I'm not certain of all my "factual" inputs i.e. Barrels per day output from all wells and indeed how many Workover wells are producing at the Doud site. I'm using 4 wells there, each with 50 boo/day output, but will welcome correction if anyone can provide a genuine source of reference for their information.

VG-3 = 160 boo/day (Not sure where I got that from? Do you have a definitive source for your 200 boo/day please?)
VG-4 we know from the recent TP Brokers note, produced 7,484 boo EQUIVALENT during 18 days of testing. So I take that to mean they factored in the Gas produced and that number is the effective economic total. So that gives a daily output of 415 boo which I'm taking as including the gas. I will use 400 boo/day though. But I'm also aware that's with 100% well up-time and obviously not achievable over a full 12 months. I'll come to that later.

At this stage I'm also assuming ZERO contribution from the Burnet 2A and 2B wells at Monroe Swell. Though of course they will provide additional boo/day after "clean-up". So my calculations become:

Doud 4 wells x 50 = 200 boo/day
VG-3 = 160 boo/day
VG-4 = 400 boo (equivalent)/day
So current total output = 760 boo/day

We also know that the composition of oil from our Cali fields is very similar to Brent Crude and commands a similar price. For this exercise I'm assuming oil at £60/brl.

I believe that RBD can extract oil for about $10/brl (that's not speculation). So that means we receive close to $50/brl.

So the total annual return from Cali (currently excluding Monroe Swell) and allowing for our 50% holding in the asset, is:

760 x 365 x 50 x 0.50 = $6.93 million (Using £=$1.205) becomes £5.75 million. But that's based on an unrealistic 100% well up-time!

Whilst I'm an engineer, unfortunately I have no experience of the oil industry and have no idea of the typical percentage of steady-state well up-times achievable! Any advice/inputs from Oil professionals welcomed! Therefore our annual NET earnings are shown for different percentage well up-times:

With 90% up-time = £5.175 million net. Equivalent to an EPS of 0.125p
With 85% up-time = £4.888 million net. Gives an EPS of 0.120p
With 80% up-time = £4.600 million net. Gives an EPS of 0.113p
Conclusions:
(1) If a very conservative EPS of 5 is used, then the following share price support (ONLY from the cash from Cli's currently producing assets) is implied:
90% up-time Cali alone supports a price of 0.64p/share
85% up-time Cali alone supports a price of 0.60p/share
80% up-time Cali alone supports a price of 0.57p/share
I also judge that in the future when S&S have demonstrated their undoubted (by me) competence, to continually add accretive projects and monetise maturing projects successfully, the market will value the

talco.......No! You weren't too harsh!! At least 8 other participants agree with you!!

Yes talco, I fully agree too! Worthless and banal clutter on this board!! Both are filtered by me!

Oldrongo, the fact that Platcro is now referred to as Windsor is stated in the RNS. Like you though, I'm amazed with these results the share price hasn't "flown"!!