Member Info for Novykluk

feelinlucky
You make a very good point!! I agree with you completely! The broader vale in Corallian is certainly great that Victory alone!
And even more so at this critical time, given the current and likely future demand for energy!

NK

Uggy100 replying to your Post of Saturday 23:24 Thank you for your courtesy!

On the Company's website their Presentation on Victory, dated November 2020, gave an NPV10 (for Victory) of between £85m (based on gas at 42.4p/therm) and £146m (if the price of gas were 50p/therm). (see page 3).

We all know the demand for gas has increased dramatically and the price of gas futures is now around 200p/therm. I am NOT suggesting however that is a realistic level on which to base a valuation for Victory.

In their Presentation though, Reabold attempts to give an indication of the sensitivity the price of gas has relative to the NPV. (see page 16).

That slide states their base case is an NPV of £145m (rounded from £146m) with gas at 50p/therm. It shows that if the gas price reduces 30% to 35p/therm, then the project NPV reduces DRAMATICALLY to just £21m!! Conversely though, if the price of gas increases by 30% from 50p to 65p, then the NPV increases DRAMATICALLY to £265m!!!

Whilst the price of gas futures is just that, and not at all representative of what is likely to be negotiated with a buyer of Victory, consider the following very positive points;

* The Directors as recently as October, made very meaningful share purchases totaling £85,000! That's a very significant demonstration of confidence with their own money!!

* There are a number of parties interested in securing these precious gas reserves, all of whom will know they are competing with one another in an "all or nothing" bid situation!

* The RNS of 20th October 2021 states the latest CPR has shown a 14% resource increase, increasing the NPV to £196m (still based on 50p/therm)!

* If one uses Reabold's own "sensitivity model" (Page 16) but now based of £196m NPV and gas at 65p/therm, then an increase in NPV to £358m is implied.

Reabold owns 49.9% of the Corallian, so the value to Reabold would be £178.7m.

There are 8,929.6 million Reabold shares in issue.

So the implied value of Victory is 2.0p/share to Reabold. And that's based on a very conservative price of 65p/therm for gas.

So I consider my previously stated value of Victory, at between 1.0p and 1.5p/share is equally very conservative and has ZERO VALUE IN FOR WEST NEWTON, PARTA and CALIFORNIA!!!

This confirms my belief that Reabold will accrue at least £100m from the monetisation of Corallian/or Victory. It will at least 5 bag from the current level. And then the company will be awash with cash to prove up (in the words of NVG) the golden goose.....West Newton!! When that's done, (possibly mid-2022) the price will be nearer to 5p/share!! All IMHO of course!

GLTA genuine LTH

NVG re: your Post on Saturday 12:02 Thank you for your courtesy!! It really does help facilitate reasoned dialogue without one party feeling the need to be "defensive"!

Victory: Yes I'm very positive about the balance of risk to reward. I try to put a contara case to myself, so I can assess what might be the downside risks. But the only one I can think of, is if the FDP were rejected by the O&G Authority. But given that about £1 million's been spent to conduct the sea bed environmental assessment (in July I think), and with the UK and Europe being so desperate for supplies of Gas, I can't realistically see it being rejected.

I will follow this Post with a reply to Uggy100, in which I will attempt to give a realistic valuation range for Victory.

In your next topic re: WN your underlying point I think, is that Reabold probably won't have enough cash to bring WN to a successful monetisation, unless Victory comes good quickly. Whilst I can understand why you and others may think that, I'm sure that's not the case. Why?

Because in their RNS issued on 28th January 2021 when RBD raised £7.5m, very little of those funds have yet been spent! That RNS defined what expenditures were planned. So of the £7.5 million, the following expenditures (outgoings) have been made;

* Victory Sea bed Environmental survey....Done. Cash spent - but not more than £1.5m top side.
* The the Legal costs of the Daybreak deal......something....but nothing major like a well drill! So say £0.4 million.

* Then there was the considerable over-run on the WN1-BZ EWT. However people who know about O&G operations tell me "that cost will not have been anything like drilling a well". So guesstimate about £0.6 million.

On the other side (the non-outgoings or retained funds) include;

* The drilling of the B2 well. Not yest done. Cash still in the Bank! A big chunk of the £7.5m raise.
* Seismic survey over the whole WN Licence. Not yest done. Cash still in the Bank!

The summary of all that means that Reabold still has about £5 million in the Bank!! So it's hardly surprising that in a number of recent interviews, both CEO's have said the company is "well funded"! There is NO NEED FOR A PLACING, and IMO THERE WILL NOT BE ONE based on the current situation! So let's now consider your other point;

"If we look big picture and positively at your synopsis - we'd be buying shares on the basis of Victory bringing in enough cash and soon enough to fund the running costs, salaries, appeals. legals etc in time for the big spend of trying to the develop the golden goose ? And then having enough of it to fund all these things all the way through to a successful conclusion." You also wrote;

"If we then take your optimism on WN and assume it will eventually bear fruit, and add this to the cash flow forecasts, how much will it cost for A Teams and drills to monetise this, and when would this (best case) start adding to the positive side of the balance sheet ?"

Continued

(Continued from the Post above)

Trying to answer both your points, how much will it cost consultants and then an "A" Team to achieve commercial flow? I must be honest that I don't have qualified number for that, but I would think no more than £1.5 million. The drilling of the B-2 well I think will not be more than £2.0 million. So I don't think that Victory is a make or break project for RBD. However I do think from the information in the public domain, Reabold will have monetised Victory by the time that additional funds are needed to complete the WN project and bring it to monetisation.

So I don't see it being binary (or a "toss of coin"), whether we investors make money from RBD. I believe Victory will certainly give investors a decent return. And then with WN it's just a question of how much more will we make, and how long will that take? But absolutely not longer than Q3 2022 from WN to be monetised IMHO.

GLTA genuine LTH's NK

Uggy100
Thanks for your courteous reply! I'm travelling today but will respond to yours and NVG's thoughtful reply during Monday.
GLTA LTH's NK

Uggy100
I share with you and other Reabold investors, the disappointment that by now the company (S&S) have NOT YET been able to bring to fruition any of our major investment projects. And also that they have not yet completed the business model cycle, by demonstrating they can monetise a big asset.

If we had the opportunity to talk to them direct, (as I note you planned to do at this years AGM, before your transport arrangements had a problem), I suspect they would probably agree with us! But don't you think they WANT SUCCESS and are working their butts off to achieve it??

I also agree that two of our "big assets", West Newton and Parta, AS MANAGED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE OPERATORS (!!!!), are a disappointment to date and have been written off by the Market! So on those points we agree!

I disagree with you however on a number of other counts;
1) "....their investment selection has been dreadful". Quite wrong IMO WITH SOME QUALIFICATIONS!

I consider their achievement in acquiring the 49.9% of Corallian, has been a master stroke!

You say you can't come up with a "reasonable man's" valuation for Victory. However I and others believe we can! So if no one else publishes a "fair and reasonable" set of Victory numbers in the next few days, then I will. I believe I can demonstrate the logic of a share between 1.0p to 1.5p/share...and also show the detail for scrutiny.

So far from being a dreadful asset selection, IMO Corallian/Victory will prove to be a very decent success by end Q2 2022 latest. If that's too late for you, then respectfully you shouldn't be investing in AIM stocks or the O&G Exploration business!!

2) West Newton
I stated earlier that I accept the Market has currently written off WN. But that doesn't mean it will not have value once a specialist team is engaged to prescribe and deliver the right artificial lift process for this particular reservoir.

It's KNOWN there's a massive volume of hydrocarbons in place at WN. So I believe that volume and its value is just too large for a technical lift solution eventually not to be found to achieve commercial flow.

One's final position in a race is only determined when one crosses the finishing line! And this Reabold "race" at WN is definitely not finished yet, not by a long way!!

So unless and until WN is eventually written off by the company, you cannot say with honesty that this asset selection was "dreadful"!! It may yet return £ millions to the company!! It seems to me you have had expectations of quick returns from these substantial assets, which in the O&G Exploration business is a very rare occurrence and an unrealistic expectation!

Uggy100 (continued)

3) You also say, "The dynamic duo alone decided on a gung ho attitude to WN which was totally against their original business plan".
They were HAVE NOT behaved contrary to their their original business plan at all. It just seems to be your expectation for timing which is at odds with reality.

These are all very emotional and sarcastic words which I note you've repeated on numerous occasions during the past few months. Perhaps in moments of quiet reflection, you will appreciate why others may associate your vitriol, with the emotions and bitterness of one who has mis-managed their investment. One can then perhaps understand why such derogatory comments are directed at our two CEO's so frequently!

I have endeavoured to keep my reply to you, courteous, direct, and factual.....admittedly with some opinions. If required, I will respond to you again if you reply similarly.

GLTA genuine LTH's NK

Snaffleman Re: Your 07:59 Post today (Friday)

You are spot on with your question and subsequent assertion. At the risk of undermining my original Post to which you refer (my reply to Unabashed - which I note has already been removed.....I wonder why??), I am not prepared to disclose the providence supporting my point. But I will point out that a number of critics of our two CEO's, appear to attribute every operational decision taken in the field, to them! An absolutely ridiculous assumption!

S&S are Investors in their (our) Investee companies! Whilst I expect their views must be taken in to account, they are not O&G Field Exploration and Operations experts!! Both Raithlin and Corallian will be making those field operations calls I am sure! Not S&S!!

GLTA genuine LTH's NK

NVG
I will always try to give respect where it's due. I've read quite a few of your Posts in the past and honestly thought you were a paid Troll! Certainly NOT a LTH!! But I must say your response of 05:46 today is the best I've read from you! Thank you for amplifying your thought process! Though why, as an apparently intelligent and articulate chap, do you need to make such a disrespectful, emotional, and factually incorrect statement, that our joint CEO's are "numbskulls"? When, whether you like it or not, it's a fact they are two very hard working intelligent guys!! They didn't succeed in their careers with both M&G and Guinness Asset Management without being very competent and very smart!

You have explained why YOU CONSIDER they have been disrespectful to SH's, and whilst I don't agree with that, I do IN HIND SIGHT share your criticism that their radio silence during the EWT at B-1 was a problem, irritant and frustration for us SH's. However, during that loooong 12 weeks period of silence, I well recall discussing with other SH's, if I or they had been CEO of RBD at that time, what actually would we have RNS'd?? I would suggest that with Raithlin failing to achieve commercial-flow at that time, there was virtually nothing they could have RNS'd which would not have trashed the share price!!! So it's very easy to be critical out of frustration and anger! Perhaps not so easy to be realistic and constructive!

I compliment you though for your nous and trading skills to have sold and bought back and now to have " relatively insignificant losses". Perhaps I was overplaying my own "massive paper losses", as I now actually own many more shares than I did when my average was 0.68p, and my current average is substantially lower.

I am still confident that S&S will deliver a very decent multi-bag return from this current very depressed price level. And I believe that will be manifest by end of Q2 2022 at the very latest! IMO, patient SH's will be very well rewarded!

GLTA genuine LTH's NK.

NVG Re: your Post Wednesday 11:46

As stated before, I align with those who Post on here who like me are saddled with massive paper losses and are very annoyed and frustrated the share price is where it is. But I suggest, Posting highly critical comments of the joint CEO's, without supporting fact/logic and based only on emotion and opinion, doesn't have intellectual credibility!

For example, "shareholders are now relying on what is effectively a coin toss to recover their money".

Victory is a proven gas asset having considerable interest from a number of parties. For a number of years ahead, the UK will still be needing to import at least 10% of its natural gas requirements. Victory is and will be a highly sought after asset!

A friend of mine recently commissioned an Independent Analyst (involved in Mergers and Acquisitions) to prepare for him an evaluation of Victory's likely value! That guy was so conservative! With natural gas futures currently at about 180p/therm, he valued Victory with a long term gas price of only 60p/therm. All of his assumptions were very conservative! But his analysis still showed Victory being worth 1.0p/share to Reabold! Other less conservative analyses can easily demonstrate a value of 1.5p/share.

So how many investors have now got an average price as high as 1.0p??? I don't know any!!!

So can you please explain where the "toss of a coin" comes in to any intelligent reasoning to recover ones money???

West Newton:
I accept the Market has currently written off WN. But that doesn't mean it will not have value once a real specialist team are engaged to prescribe and deliver the right artificial lift process for this particular reservoir.

It's my contention that because the prize (i.e. the KNOWN massive volume of hydrocarbons in place) is so large at WN, commercial flow will eventually be realised! It's too large not to!!

I also hope you will have noted the excellent comment yesterday of "oldbutnowisa".....

"None of our investments are yet 'dead' or 'worthless'. The market just does not think much of them right now. Depends on your timescale and risk-tolerance!" And IMO he's absolutely right.

One's final position in a race is only determined when one crosses the finishing line! And this Reabold race is not finished yet! Not bay a long way!!

Then your comment, "....the BOD have treated the people that pay their massively over inflated salaries (based on performance) with complete contempt..!"

Can you please explain exactly how they've treated anyone with contempt? And please try to give an intelligent and factual answer. Innuendo, unsubstantiated emotion and wild opinion won't cut it!

GLTA genuine LTH's NK.

Unabashed, re: your Post at 16:23
I share you disappointment and frustration with our current share price and I have massive paper losses too, which given my personal circumstances and age, puts me in a potentially horrendous financial situation!!
However I do not share your negative assessment of the likely outcome! So I ask that you take my comments, not as a criticism, but as an intellectual attempt to assess what the the most likely outcome(s) will be, rather than one based on emotion and understandable frustration. In that vein, I note three extracts from your Post:

(1) "So rather than stick with our original plan, S&S decided to squander millions on a single venture, resulting in not only in us seeing any profit return on our investment, but most importantly, resulting in many of us not getting our money back at all."
West Newton: It's true that S&S spent additional funds to increase the holding in Raithlin. Your comment though that "S&S decided to squander millions on a single venture" will only be correct if ultimately the massive volume of hydrocarbons KNOWN TO BE PRESENT AT WN, cannot be brought to commercial flow. Once an "A Team" (the best in Europe) is employed to achieve that goal, then WN will be back in play, and the potential upside IMO will then be recognised by the Market. I'm 'critical an "A Team" wasn't employed first off! BUT remember, whilst S&S are significant shareholders in Raithlin, it's still the Operational management of Raithlin who decides how to conduct operations in the field! Clearly an "A Team" was not employed.....but they will be next time!!!

So it's my contention that because the prize (i.e. the volume of hydrocarbons) is so large at WN, commercial flow will eventually be realised! I suggest at that time, patient LTH's will then be very pleased S&S increased their holding in Raithlin, i.e. WN!

(2) "Instead here we are relying on a potential Victory sale, which let’s face it, is again, unlikely to produce any great improvement in SP." Hmm really???

A friend of mine recently commissioned an Independent Analyst (involved in Mergers and Acquisitions) to prepare for him an evaluation of Victory's likely value! That guy was so conservative! With natural gas futures currently at about 180p/therm, he valued Victory on a long term gas price of 60p/therm. All of his assumptions were very conservative! But his analysis still showed Victory being worth 1.0p/share to Reabold! Other less conservative analyses can easily demonstrate a value of 1.5p/share.

So by stating (of Victory) "it's unlikely to produce any great improvement in SP", you will perhaps understand my scepticism as to your motives for making such a claim! That must be an irrational emotional comment, as it's not based on any fact or intellectual logic!

(3) "End result: we’re all locked in hoping for this lame goose to lay a single leaden egg so we can at least break even and bail out."
Conclusion: Another emotional comment not based

Lenin, re; your 11.19 post.....You assertion is Spot on!!
The current share price offers an excellent entry point with Reabold's assets being undervalued beyond reality.
GLTA LTH's.

RNST......looks like you've scored another "own goal"! Have you read all of the article you highlighted??
It clearly states,

"The company [referring to Total] CONTINUES TO INVEST IN NATURAL GAS.
"Gas has a key role in the energy transition. And I would say what is happening this year is even further reinforcing my conviction," Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne told analysts in a conference call last week."

But in addition to that endorsement RNST, there are people close to this project who really know the facts about Total's intentions!! I don't see you quoting any of them!!!!

GLTA LTH and I strongly advise to ignore the paid Trolls.

Jimmybob,
I too ignored this BB for a very long time because of that numbskull you refer to! People like that ruin this forum...I agree!
But many months ago I just filtered the idiot and I'm no longer inflicted with his drivel!!!
If as you say, you're a business professional (I suspect like any on here) and are so frustrated by the TROLLS, then PLEASE
just filter them and "starve them of the oxygen" (attention") they crave!! Simples.....
I see lots of "green boxes" now (i.e. Posts which are filtered) and am not longer anguished by idiot Posters!!!
Please DO IT!!

Two excellent Posts....2kally and Lenin!!!

2kally....Your logic is spot on! I smart observation! Thank you for sharing!

Lenin: The very recent news you refer to is completely logical IMHO! Thank you for sharing!!
I very well recall that when the price of oil languished at around $25 - $30/brl, there were bold industry observers who even then were predicting the price of oil would rise to $100+/brl (some were even saying $200/brl...when the price was $20/brl!!!)
Their logic was because Capital spend by the majors was virtually at zero at that time, no new fields were being developed and that there would eventually be a shortfall in supply vs demand. And sure enough, your Post is highlighting the fact that that situation is now with us!!
So perhaps two observations:
(1) The price of oil (and the same applies to gas) has not yet topped out!! And
(2) The timing for Reabold is opportune!!

In their November 2020 Presentation on Victory, Reabold state an NPV for Victory of £145m based on gas at 50p/therm! Whilst the price of Gas Futures (currently 242p/therm!!) probably bears no direct relationship with the price of gas which will be discussed in Corallian's negotiations with potential buyers of Victory, serious Investors in Reabold may want to have a good look at that Presentation, as it shown is some detail, how the NPV changes with a change in the price of gas!!
And the sensitivity of that change is dramatic!!!
Look at slide 16 in that Presentation!!! If you understand it, it will "blow you away"!!!
"Be greedy when others are fearful" :-))!

GLTA LTH's NK.

RNST, ref your;
"Seems Total is seeking to sell down their West of Shetland producing gas assets, so they wont be a bidder...so exactly who are the bidders going to be ?"

I note your care (a smart move!) to cover the situation where you may not be factually correct in your assertion about Total, you wisely write, "SEEMS Total is seeking....etc".
You are completely INCORRECT! Please find some one who really knows the facts and talk to them!!
I do not know the names of all the interested parties. But with the UK's shortfall in gas supplies set to last for some years ahead, it doesn't take a brain surgeon to understand there will be a bidding war once Corallian put Victory out to tender!

deemule; Re your....
"Good news if you are not in The Green Coffin Gang.
Not to late for you naughty rascals to turn over a new leaf , i know you scamps seldom cross paths with the truth, but maybe this time might be one of them."
Love it :-)) :-)) :-))!!! Absolutely love it :-))!!!

Yes, I'd be very pleased for Reabold to be negotiating with Raithlin for another chunk of their equity in West Newton!! In fact I'm rather surprised that's not been a topic before now!
Reabold appears to have some leeway to do that........say up to about £2m's worth of equity?? Least, that's until Victory's just a bit closer to being monetised!

RNST
Pardon me for concluding you appear to be "making it up as you go along". Also that you are searching "the corners" to try to find points you can portray as negative.

Chimey Blue pointed out to you correctly, that as late as their 25th October BRR Media interview, the CEO's made it clear they're well funded. It's not difficult to calculate the company has of the order of £6m still available! I shared that in a recent previous Post.

So the expenditures RBD will incur between now and the drilling of the B2 well will not be major.

* There will the Legal costs of the Daybreak......something....but not major like a well drill!
* Consultancy fees for engaging specialist carbonate reservoir modelling energy consultants....again costly, but not of the order of well drilling!
* The re-entry costs if they look again at B1-Z and or A-2. Also costly but not anywhere near like the cost of drilling a well!

But remember at that point they will not have spent the approx £2.5m ear marked for the combined costs of drilling the B-2 well and the seismic survey of the whole site. But as you rightly point out, the timing of that well drill will not be until next year....say Q2. But by then it's quite likely Reabold will be awash with cash from the monetisation of the Victory field or the Sale of Corallian! So there's no way Funding will be a concern for Reabold....simples!

Your attempts to present Reabold as short of cash are just not correct and indeed the CEO's have stated the complete opposite. I think you're headed for the "Green list"!!

But GLTA genuine LTH's. NK.

sav1907....thank you for your courteous reply!! It is appreciated!! Would that everyone behaved that way!!

To be honest though, when you state, "There are plenty of others on here that simply post without foundation", I struggle to see how you can imply there is any fact in your own Post to which I referred.

You stated the company are, "burning through the cash". That just not true. So your statement is without foundation!

You referred to the compay's EXPLORATION assets as "non performing assets". Until assets under EXPLORATION have the exploration and analysis process completed, it's most unlikely they will/can be described as "performing assets". So unfortunately that's another statement without foundadtion!

I assume that based on the advice you're offereing to anyone reading your Post, that you have either already sold out of Reabold or were never invested. Why then are you spending time to Post on Reabold???? I WONDER???

I would add, that once Raithlin have engaged the services of "The 'A' team" (the knowledge of specialist carbonate reservoir modelling energy consultants - Refer to the RNS dated 13th October 2021) to prescribe the best approach to achive commercial flow rates from the massive WN hydrocarbon resource, then the value of West Newton will be "back in play.

Perhaps now is the time to heed Warren Buffet's old addage, "Be greedy when others are fearful" :-))!!!
GLTA genuine LTH's. NK.