Member Info for Notperfect

JD1014,
Please don't bring your spat with djryan over here. Make your case on the SML board or just use the filter.
It's not worth getting banned for.

A number of points here.
This is year 1 so at this stage they are scaling up from a very low position. No one should be expecting instant high revenue. They have built a suitable access road and are awaiting plant. These are early days. It is already a big step forward from what Falcon could do before and they are building the capability to produce 10 times more. The key point is the FCA Total Cost. This spread all your costs over the product you sell. So with the old operation and its low capability I doubt it would have been able to break even. They needed economies of scale. As this grows it means that in Year 1 at 5 kt the margins are modest -$155K. But by Year 5, at 48kt, you are making very good money as your FCA Total Cost shrinks and the forecast margin is a very healthy $9.5M.

Secondly, yes the phosphate content is excellent but the key point, and the reason why they specifically mention the medical marijuana market, is that the high phosphate occurs with low heavy metal impurities and is consequently organically certified. High Phosphate is not exceptional on its own but combined with low heavy elements is a bit special. It's very appealing and it cuts down your production costs if you don't have to take out the nasties. The organic certification is critical.

Had the project been more advanced, more profitable at this stage and with large contracts in place then Keras would not have been able to get this deal. Full stop. Keras are trying to take the potential that Falcon saw and scale it up to a profitable commercial level.

This is mining so I expect there will be bumps on the road. An organically certified high phosphate product at attractive prices should sell but we'll only know that when we see the contracts coming in. (Personally I'm pleasantly surprised they've already sold 700+ t.)

Also, the market will see the possible 60 years of production but I think we'll need to JORC a decent amount to get SP value for that. Also, currently I believe the organic certification applies to the initial 70 kt being exploited for production so while the JORC needs to be able to add a sizeable amount of high phosphate reserves it critically also needs to confirm they would be organically certified - that is key to the market offering.

From presentation, product price will average $260 in the first year.
If 5000 t are sold then margin looks like $155,000.

The rock absorption idea isn't so new and doesn't usually happen quickly enough unless you put lots of energy into pushing it forward. Bit of a gimmick for CNC unless they plan to spend big on speeding up the process. HZM could probably do something similar by adding the right microbes to their waste. At the moment it's up there with planting a tree to justify flying your private jet.

I think we're going to see a lot more "Dear Elon" love letters before Musk gets the deal he wants.

I think that's the key point, ihowells. It's about what the finance will allow HZM to do.

At the moment we're valued as a low % of the NPV for Stage 1 Araguaia because we need the finance to deliver it. The rest of Araguaia and all of Vermelho are probably given very little weight in the SP for all their potential value. With the finance everything changes. The market will see Stage 1 as likely to happen and might even start to see that as a door into the rest of the assets. As djryan has said, things could change very quickly once the finance is in place.

Dilution is about the % of the company you own before and after the finance. Unless there is no equity raise, or we are offered the right to maintain our % by participating in the raise, then there will be dilution.

In the perfect solution of a relatively small number of new shares at a premium to the SP then our holdings might rapidly become more valuable but we will own a smaller % of the company.

I wondered about bed n isa for those 4 trades too. Even if they are just sells, the spread means buys are in red too. Certainly not a blood bath.

That's an interesting interpretation, Soup. I'd read it and heard it as just meaning 001 had passed its late stage human trials with the later comment perhaps being about its additional possibilities for cancer cough. But I agree the wording leaves it open to something more.

I've said this before I think, but Fleur is IR. She won't take decisions on what to tell PIs. She could be standing in the burnt out rubble of the company labs but she would still reiterate the last business update until the company issued a new one.

Silverpixels
NFX have carried out a review, referred to in the last update -
"The leadership team and Board have completed a business review, mapping out a sensible course through the months ahead and focussing investment on the programmes we believe will deliver short-term returns"
I think it's very unlikely that Dan's amicable leaving wasn't included in that review. He got to make a farewell statement after all (which in your comparison, I don't remember RT doing and I doubt that was in any way amicable.)

Further, if Chris is genuinely looking for Dan's successor then that person will set the strategy going forward and the May update will be the holding position till then.

If goup is right and Dan became surplus, say because of a friendly takeover by Vectura, then we won't hear more until it is done.

quercus
"main s/hlders have been fighting like ferrets in a sack for the past 15 months or so....absolutely zero thought/consideration given to the best interests of the company.....or their shareholders.Only to be expected nowadays I suppose,nevertheless it is pretty staggering......and as ever....no-one is accountable.
How do I know this?.. Answer...from the many conversations I had with D Gooding......who was always surprisingly candid,to the point of indiscretion"

Can you expand a little?

Looks like Dave crossed the latest threshold on the day Dan's resignation was announced.

DT reducing, now 6.9%.

Vistagen has just reported for fiscal year ending 31 March.
NFX's annual report in July will also be for year ending 31 March.

The strategic agreement is post period. I expect the company statement to mention it in the post reporting period section because it's a potentially important event but the revenue doesn't need to be mentioned.

It does look like an interesting company and AV101 looks to be an interesting drug. I hope they can take this further together.

At this stage I'd expect any financial arrangements to be supporting NFX's initial costs then geared towards achieving milestones and assessing potential. Remember the RNS says they want to develop "novel crystalline forms of AV-101" meaning there are likely to be a number of variants. So I would also expect there to be review processes to decide whether to continue further with anything developed. If it's a fruitful partnership then I could see something more regular being set up in the future but not at such an early stage when you don't know what you'll have.

As Halespur says, the agreement is post reporting period for Vistagen so money wouldn't be reported now anyway, and it is just mentioned as a post period agreement. The same point will apply to NFX financials in July though I expect Vistagen to mentioned in the Chairman's (or new CEO's, lol) statement where we might hear a little more about the agreement.

Also
I'm not expecting to hear much more about the terms of the Vistagen arrangement at this stage. The Vistagen RNS you referred to was providing more details because there was a larger licensing agreement. I'd expect something along those lines from NFX for NXP002 for example.

The Vistagen agreement feels nearer to the Ebers deal and we've never been given much commercial detail on that.

chablard
Yes, it is quite possible that there will be no substantial news before results. However, that is absolutely not what Fleur said.

After the flak the company will be very aware of, Fleur is playing it absolutely straight. The results timing is well known, anything else would just be raising expectations again which you would rightly criticise.

We tend to focus on individuals but in a small company like NFX it is likely to be an effective team working together.

There was a nice comment from Vistagen's President and CSO on that - "Nuformix has a successful track record of using cocrystal technology to re-engineer the crystalline form of small molecule drugs for their own development and for select partners. Their team is not only highly experienced, but also scientifically creative."

Obviously just a nice compliment but he didn't have to say it and it might explain why the likes of Ebers and Vistagen sought them out.

change of fund manager - new investment strategy

Personally I look back at the Business Update -

"The leadership team and Board have completed a business review, mapping out a sensible course through the months ahead and focussing investment on the programmes we believe will deliver short-term returns, in particular the completion of a pan-Asia out-licensing agreement for our NXP002 programme."

For me that "business review" was possibly the point Dan agreed to go with a resignation.

One point though for randomchancer: in that same sentence NFX chose to mention NXP002 as the prime near term focus. I have no idea if there has been a change of negotiating partner because these things can take a crazy amount of time but it suggests to me that NXP002 is still a focus. The company didn't need to say anything after "short term returns".

Apart from that, like everyone else, I need to hear the new voice of NFX telling us where things stand.