Member Info for Notperfect

Thanks aj,
it will be very interesting to see how things recover from this huge impact - bounce back or new direction. I hope it's well underway by June.

Why June, aj?

I don't think the problem was late notification. Dave had inside information which would move the SP and he simply should not have traded at all.

Perhaps management think if they told us what it is has really been like trying to operate in Togo, everyone would run a mile.

A double edged sword I think. It might add some token reassurance but it would also mean there was no news in the pipeline far enough advanced to count as insider information.

Excellent post, hopeabound. Sums up my view better than I could say myself.

Dan can only ever hope to have a deal to announce because he doesn't control the other party or external factors. It can't be a deadline in those circumstances.

However, I agree, given how people latch onto targets, in his position I'd avoid them and stick with "advanced stages" or similar.

notamused

Masterinverstor has it wrong here. ANS is an Ethiopian private company. People need to read KEFI's own releases rather than relying on google and jumping to the wrong conclusion.

"ANS Mining is the Ethiopian mining investment vehicle for Ethiopian banks and insurance companies and shareholders thereof"

I've listened to that interview twice. It is clearly from the 121 conference so it's early Feb, regardless of the date it was posted to YT.

I thought Harry sounded much as he always does, possibly a little more upbeat and optimistic than usual. I didn't hear him say he was tired or anxious about anything. He certainly didn't look or sound ill to me.

He explains the funding for TK and confirms the government has already started spending, with the private sector initial payment due imminently, and the larger payment due in 6 months for the major works - all completely in line with the RNS.

He isn't going to present definitive timelines in an informal interview that haven't been published in an RNS.

I don't think there was anything really new there. Overall I thought it more useful for gauging Harry's feelings that the tide is turning for mining projects and for KEFI. He's also obviously feeling very positive about the prospect in SA.

Plums
As you are one of the few sane posters here, and you only post when you have something worth saying, I'd be very interested in anything more you can add.

For that reason I believe that the leak came from someone who was aware of the discussions but not familiar with the way these deals are constructed.

Sorry but you are missing the point Dan was making. It is NOT about the the amount NFX might earn per year but about the terms of the contract.

Dan was making the point that a contract would be written in terms of percentages not cash and so royalties would depend on sales.

Beyond China, Dan has already said they are in discussions with a larger generics company with global reach, potentially developing NXP001 with them to cover lung cancer cough.

As much as I hope the nsb situation is resolved amicably, I still see this second route as where NXP001 will provide the greater returns.

As you said on Wednesday, groupplease, an RNS is the way to go next. The podcasts are more useful for explaining and fleshing out the story.

Dan's update says yatai announced the sacking of NFX's primary contact on 23rd. Dave sold shares on 24th. Timing looks very suspect indeed now. Could explain Dave leaving with immediate effect and not a word of thanks from Dan.

As investor81 has said, he sold in time to have funds to pay a tax bill for 31 Jan deadline. Seems very possible given the timing.
And no, I wouldn't borrow money for that either, no matter how short term.

Obviously we're twice blessed because AIM isn't Aberdeenman and the big NFX news is likely to come from Japan not China.

For me, the Saudi VMS is promising but we haven't yet had an RNS which will have lasting traction on the SP - Kefi's SP is entirely about Ethiopia at the moment.

There will always be a risk factor in Africa but I think Ethiopia is making great strides and wants to attract foreign investment to its natural resources. It needs Tulu Kapi to go forward in this form to build confidence with other potential partners. I don't see anyone delaying the project but this is a very big new step for the Ethiopian government and for Ethiopian corporate investors and that takes a very long time for everyone to get on top of it and be comfortable and organised.

Also the JV structure will help too. nsb/yatai will want to protect both their investment and their business model of working with western companies to develop new products, which will end if trust is lost.

However.

There is a bigger picture for nxp001. Yes, NFX see a benefit in going down this route with nsb and the millions are certainly not peanuts, but the fact is NFX are in discussions with another company "with global reach" to develop nxp001 potentially to encompass lung cancer cough. This is where the real returns will come from nxp001.

Yes, if he bought, say, a further 1 million shares after his notification, his holding would have reached 5.22% and then he would stay above the 5% level after the placing.

Having said that we'll probably get a TR1 tomorrow, lol.