Member Info for NorthernShark

Billy, that is the question!
I have put in 2400 tonnes for 2021 which may be a bit high but we don't know how much their own tailings have been delivering. Financially I have only put in the profit at Sable rather than the Roan JV element so probably about right. I have also put in Cobalt in a 1:10 ratio but again we need some numbers on this to prove the case.
For me the 2021 numbers will take care of themselves from the PGMs and Chrome.
Using a PE of 7 I think the Mcap should be north of 20p for 2021 but the market will decide that.

2022 I have put in 10t of copper but need to do more work on the 2022 numbers.

What are your thoughts?

I was refreshing my numbers after the webcast and updating some of the metals prices. Suffice to say I am more than happy to sit on my shareholding and wait - half yearly results will demonstrate the PGM earnings capability, copper coming on stream and any other deals they may strike in the interim will just add a cherry on the cake.
Then 10p will be the distant horizon IMHO

I would also recommend reading Bullsters post on ADVFN which provides a good insight into why Tjate is in play. I had assigned zero value to this but the way it was talked about in the webcast leads me to suspect it could be the icing on an already nice cake IMHO!

Part of the Braemore acquisition in 2009. Project never went anywhere as it appears BHP didn't trust JLP to execute. As I understand it the tailings dump at Leinster may be of concern so may be ripe for re-processing.

https://www.miningbusiness.net/content/jubilee-platinum-bhp-dumps-leinster-tailings-pact

https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/bhp-sees-extreme-consequences-from-dam-failures-ng-b881224775z

From the Braemore Acquisition RNS
"In Australia, Braemore holds tailings supply agreements with BHP Billiton on three nickel surface dumps in Leinster, Kambalda and Mt Keith containing a combined estimated total of some 500,000 tons of nickel".

500k tons of nickel is a big project at potentially $7.5bn+ revenue. Not sure about processes but I am sure I have read that Nickel is similar to copper!

Portal, processing capacity makes more sense as does the 50k per month chrome concentrate. Can only see them doing more deals in this space however as they seem to be the undoubted leaders in the space

Thanks Billy for your clarifications - as you say its hard to type and listen so hopefully mostly accurate! Did I hear right about producing 250kt per month chrome at the end of the FY - if so this is a big increase on what I was expecting

Overall I thought it was hugely impressive with a lot going on including Tjate and BHP Nickel which I had written off.

Only slight downside it appears Roan is later than planned but not by long

Part 2

Unit cost of Copper in order of $4,000/t. Cobalt is a by-product which we get for free.
Colin thinks a severe shortfall in copper supply indicating the price will rocket.
In discussions with BMR around potential buyout of loyalty.
BHP Nickel Project sounds like there could be re-engagement because of the success and track record.
Riverfort – difference of view on what settlement value should be. Leon happy on the legal stance.
In South Africa exploring organic growth opportunities with a lot of interest based on the chrome efficiencies. Focus on expanding Inyoni, Windsor 8 and the new chrome facility.
Tjate – mines in proximity being sold and potentially looking to expand the footprint with JLP and discussions are ongoing. Chinese interest in PGMs high as fuel cell appetite. Approach to package it rather than sell outright and could be very valuable (1-3 year time horizon).
Leon – no plans to issue shares and no reason why they have to! Banks very supportive.

Colin – all the trains arriving at the same time. Talks about consolidation and expansion.
Leon
Great pleasure to present the results (no surprise). Wants to talk about post period results as grown further.
Solid profitability margins. Majority of growth driven by expanding operations rather than the metals prices rising. Basket price has also increased so one can expect a significant increase in earnings.
Chrome critical to produce the PGM by-product and seen tremendous growth which increases the longevity of the PGM business. All capacity is currently full with long term supply agreements. Chrome margin has also increased as shifted to a tolling agreement where the margin is secure.
Inyoni PGM plant is expanding to absorb the additional feed. Designs completed. Expansion complete by end Mar-21. Windsor 8 is commissioning and producing concentrate. Commenced construction of another chrome facility (Q2 2021). Capacity to 250ktpm.
Zambia
Copper tailings well beyond the capacity of Sable. 3 clusters each requiring a concentrator. Partnering with other refineries to process the excess concentrate.
Roan concentrate will be delivered in Q1 2020 with full capacity in Q2 2020. Elephant designs being completed and construction commences Q1 2020.
Funding. Majority on re-investment of earnings and supplemented by debt and project funding due to low gearing. Roan and Elephant fully funded.
Sable current capacity 16ktpa. Current period producing copper (own tails) and will step up significantly as copper ramps up. Copper margins extremely healthy due to technical expertise and only provider who can deliver this.
Colin – risk diversified across different metals and countries. Palladium and Rhodium contributed well. Driven by project profitability when assessing a project. 1.5bn tonnes of copper tailings left in Zambia. Rather walk away than do a bad project. Looking at other projects with people approaching JLP. Smart money looking long term and ethical funds interested. Plate not full in terms of projects but getting close to it.
Chrome – 85% under long term fixed price contracts. $3 previous to 15-18% level.
75-80% of feed to Inyoni before expansion is new with the rest from existing tails. 10 year+ project now. Cost will continue to drop as Inyoni expands. Internal target below $400 oz.
Roan 12ktpa with Elephant 16-18ktpa. Roan capex $17m and Elephant $34m. Quick payback period at both projects.
Sable copper and cobalt circuits running from own tails. Cobalt concentrate (sold locally) and copper metal.
Zinc circuit delayed and will recommence at the end of Q1 2021. Zinc production significant level at Q3 2021. Vanadium and Lead under review based on metals prices but quick to implement.
Partnerships with large miners a possibility for the next stage of growth.

250k tonnes of chrome per month at the end of Q2 2021!

Anyone posted any questions yet?

I have asked about timings and volumes around Roan as that should be the short term catalyst to keep this share price moving north

For all of you wondering about ConRoast... from the accounts

"During the period under review the ConRoast process has contributed to the process solution being developed for the Group’s Windsor PGM Operations which is the key reason for Jubilee receiving a premium for its produced PGM concentrates free of any chrome penalties"

Thanks Groucho.
WHI estimates are a little more bullish than my own estimates but they probably have better information from me and I am also using historical basket prices. Even if you de-risk the copper income forecast then the share price should be well in excess of where we are now.
Would be good to get news of Roan being operational and one DCM to continue the good news flows.

Agreed - I am hoping that with the CFO in place we will be getting some more granularity and will be interesting to see if the results contain any more detail

Gotreal
I also think I remember Leon saying the copper cathode produced was attracting a premium to the spot price due to the quality

Thanks Jammer, that certainly makes sense. We may get a sneaky peak as to how much they have processed as they should either have finished product as an asset on the balance sheet or revenue for sales of the cathode.
It will be interesting to see if the fine chrome is operating at Inyoni as the timescales in terms of the news release this should have been operational by the end of August and I presume any slippage should have been reported to the market.
Lots of news to come in terms of results, Roan, Windsor 8 and the new supply agreements Leon alluded to during the recent interview with Zak Mir. With the copper and adding another 1000oz PGMs at Inyoni this should re-rate to new levels as the cashflow will be significant.

845k in ISA

New to the chat board having come off them once the iii debacle took place. Been in JLP for a number of years but they really seem to have got their act together.

I am hoping with the results comes a forecast given we now have a CFO on board. Also would like some more on how much copper and cobalt has been produced as reading through past announcements it sounded as if there was some production from own tails at Sable?