Member Info for NorthernShark

Just had a note through from EQI with broker tips saying Tom Winnifrith has allocated a sell rating to Jubes. Didn't he just put buy on the stock with a price of 17p - what has changed earnings or business wise in the last three weeks to change his opinion?

Laughable

It should be on the website in due course but Billys synopsis is about spot on so would read that to get the general gist.

Both Colin and Leon looked as happy as pigs in the brown stuff and rightly so in my opinion.

NC,
Not sure how they are expensive based on this years earnings forecast. Fast growing and highly profitable the PE should be adjusted to reflect this in the weeks and months to come. 13p is cheap and an as yet unnamed Blue Chip investor agrees, so I would think your money will be safe enough

Decent webcast and quite Colin and Leon are quite obviously proud of progress. WIll look at my notes later but key takeaways for me:
55k PGM forecast this year - slightly lower than the 60k I had pencilled in but more going through Inyoni which should help margins.
Seem very pleased with progress on chrome and new Chrome facility near Inyoni will be operational at end of Feb.
Roan - first lower grade material from Feb and completion by end Aug.
Leon let slip there may be a 4th copper deal very soon.
Plenty of refining capacity available in Zambia and 1.5bn tonnes of resource still to go after
Copper forecasts will come in Q2 and will include Elephant
ESG audit in progress
Australia sounds like the next geography and Nickel mentioned again. Could Leinster be back on the table?

Year of execution ahead

Just started

Frog, if we can get to full year results before any bid comes in then it will have to start with a 3 at the very least but the so called market will decide that.

I really hope we are allowed to implement the copper and see the global strategy start to play out. I have 50p pencilled in before I sell any of my holdings but I am also a patient investor!

Leon has already stated the all in cost for Copper will be circa $4k. This does not include the profits at the JV providing the concentrates which will be sold to Sable (and the excess to the market) at market prices

Potentially 19m warrants hit the market today as well (RNS 6th Jan) - might explain some of the selling as they were granted at sub 4p and therefore in a very healthy profit

LUFC good analysis, I think the Q1 results were exceptional in terms of margins but the blended output is still very good. Chrome facilitates the PGMs and with the prices rising this performance should improve. A bit more clarity on the copper and cobalt plus a strong indication they will look at other countries in the near future.
All going in the right direction especially with the Copper ramp up to follow.
Northern

I do like the fact Leon talks about replicating the Copper strategy globally, Sounds to me like he has something up his sleave!

Wow! Superb results at first glance (I did say JLP like a Thursday announcement :))

3Card, that is true which I think is why we hear Colin and Leon talk about how picky they are when it comes to the projects. I think they will be using some robust ROI criteria for each project which may be why they have walked away after due diligence.
I can only judge based on the margins from the reports and they all stack up. What gives me further confidence is that if metals prices fall, the miners will mothball operations before the point it becomes uneconomic for us to reprocess the waste thus supporting a floor in prices so we are still profitable.

Northern

True Jammer - it helps when you have Dr Matthews Phosa as a Non-Exec on the board and a shareholder. If he starts to sell shares then the alarm bells might start to ring but SA needs the employment and a thriving industry.

Mikie, don't forget that 85% of the earnings margin on chrome is now fixed between 14% and 25% (I think these were the numbers but can't find the exact quote from Leon in my notes so take with a pinch of salt).

So we will absolutely have some upside but would expect this to be capped on a large proportion of the chrome output.

Good news the price is rising however as may well encourage other miners to work with us!

Shiner - if you look at the last quarter it came out on the 12th. I think the reporting might be quicker (as in the last quarter release) as they have a CFO in place so the processes are likely to have improved significantly. They will be keen to get the results out (I imagine) and Thursday has historically been their day of choice to release information.

Only my guess but think it would be a risk if people were were looking to accumulate before results are out.

Mikie, how many cherries do you want?
Copper
Cobalt
Chrome
Not to mention Zinc, Lead & Vanadium as well as being an environmental play.

Still think results may be earlier than last year and my guess is tomorrow.

Just a thought on timing of the results.

The last quarterlies came out on 12th October. Given we now have a bolstered finance department could this mean we would be right to expect them earlier than the 28th?

I would guess we will see them on Thursday 14th (Thursday seems to be Jubes favourite day to release news)

Shorn, I would think that most of the agreements like in Zambia will be JV's. These have been strategically located in areas with large tailings resources in the locality (Kitwe for example). Longevity wise the copper resources already secured will last 20 years+ and there is another 1.7bn tonnes of additional material to go at in Zambia alone.
The thing which really gives me confidence is that Jubes seem to be the best out there at reprocessing tailings. If you are looking to get value out of your tailings resource why would you go elsewhere? Fine Chrome process alone makes me think that the PGM operations have longevity. People may be aware of some of the tech but can they replicate the process flows to achieve the same results? Leon says we are being approached about deals due to technical capability to deliver.
As we have now proved our capabilities we can start to look at bigger projects and over time in other territories. I am not too concerned with metals prices too much as our reprocessing is high margin and lower risk/cost than mining operations in many cases.
Get the copper up and running followed by Zinc at Kabwe then we have a good metals mix with the Cobalt thrown in.

2.3 Included in business development intangible assets is an amount of £ 4 169 079 (2019: £ 2 002 795) relating partially to a fine chrome recovery technique acquired as part of the Group’s acquisition of the Windsor Chrome Operations and partially developed in-house development costs. Management estimates the recoverable amount of this intangible to be higher than its carrying value and no impairment was required. The amortisation of this intangible is recognised in cost of sales.

Business development intangibles consists of a combination of targeted process consulting focussed on the development and implementation of process solutions, specifically targeting both liquid and solid waste streams from mine processes. The Group’s business development intangibles include existing pilot operations as part of the process development cycle to provide mature solutions which includes extractivemetallurgy, pyro-metallurgy and hydro-metallurgy. This process has led to many previously non-viable environmental and metals recovery projects becoming commercially viable and very strong demand in Africa is being experienced.
2.1 Included in business development costs is an amount of £ 3 157 710 (2019: £ 3 001 761) representing models developed by Base Metal
Technologies focussing on:
• Increased liberation techniques to support the recovery of the metals and minerals associated with base metals. This development lead to the implementation of the Fine Grinding Circuit implemented at the Hernic Project.
• Fine air bubble generation to improve the attachment of the valuable base metals and precious metals to the bubble surface as part of the recovery process. This development has led to the implementation of the fine bubble generator at the Inyoni and Windsor Operations.
• Accelerated base metal leaching as part of the improving the kinetics of a base metal leach process. The process research and development processes developed to date is currently being implemented in the recovery of PGMs in associated sulphides from the South African tailings projects, specifically targeting the beneficiation of sulphite minerals which allows for significant enhancement in concentrate grade profiles which has improved the projected target performance and profitability of these tailings.
The costs incurred during the process research and development phase, include studies and other development testing costs which are being utilised by the Group in implementing and developing new projects that are similar to that of the nickel tailing project in Australia. These costs are recovered through revenues generated by existing projects benefiting and applying the research and development concept developed.
These development costs are allocated to the relevant projects where the technology and techniques are applied to generate project revenues.
2.2 Included in business development costs is an amount of £ 281 231 (2019: £ 943 366) which relates to the ConRoast technology,converting and autoclave process, CVMR® process and leaching and hydro-processing. During the period under review the ConRoast process has contributed to the process solution being developed for the Group’s Windsor PGM Operations which is the key reason for Jubilee receiving a premium for its produced PGM concentrates free of any chrome penalties. The Windsor PGM Operations commenced production during H2 2019.