Member Info for NorthernShark

Shiner - could well be right. My concern there is we may not get Q3 FY figures as previously Leon has stated we would only do 6 monthly numbers, albeit he then released Q1 as they were so good.

Worthwhile sending a note to the company for clarification around the above I would think

I have been racking my brains as to why there has not been an updated broker note?

The "MikieSunday" in me says its because the recent metals price increases have caused their calculator to explode.

I can only think that the broker is either rubbish or aware of corporate activity in the background which might render the forecast outdated at the point it is put out. Either that or awaiting confirmation of Roan and will issue off the back of that?

Should definitely have had an update by now which is a little frustrating for me as would like to qualify some of my thinking around timings, volumes and margins on the various projects.

Happy to wait however as not selling for a long while yet.

Northern

Yorkie - as far as I am aware only the chrome is part hedged through mostly fixed price agreements.

Management have long said that metals prices were too low and hence the moves they have made. Now look set to reap the rewards of that strategy both in terms of picking up the assets and speed to delivery.

Northern

Dorfan, dividends would be nice but I would prefer they either move the copper projects forward faster or seek to secure more resource in SA or Zambia.

Either way the cash position with metals prices gets ever more interesting for holders

Northern

Same here - long and strong.

Why would I sell when we are only just beginning to see the value come through. Many more projects to come

Hesgoingallin,
This risk is relatively low in my opinion. We have very low debt and the capacity to borrow to fund expansion as Leon has repeatedly mentioned in presentations. All plans were also set at much lower metals prices so if anything I am looking for an increase in the expansion funded from existing cashflows.
I do not see any further dilution apart from the known warrants and options.
Northern

Knocking on the door of $9000!

None of the above! The business model is scalable and we have proved capability. We should be able to pick and choose the projects and want Leon to have the chance to prove this up over the next 3-5 years!

Gshivers,
I think given the cashflow of the business we are highly likely to have additional new projects within 6 months and maybe even a dividend as well.
I hope there will be a constant stream of projects at different phases of development - Feasibility, Scoping, Construction and Operation.
Personal wish list would be (in addition to more projects in ZAM and SA) a nickel project in AUS and Copper in Chile.

Colins ambitions for mid cap may need to be extended upwards

Mike, the deals are mostly JV's and as such should operate the same, just the tailings owners % of the JV will be worth more as the concentrate value will go up in line with the market.

Our process tech (fine copper) adds more value than they could extract alone. With prices going up they should be more keen to process tailings and therefore more deals should be available.

Jonah, good point on Anglo. We are not a miner and expected growth rates would be far in excess of Anglo due to the comparative size of the organisations.

What the correct PE is will become clear over time but I use between 7 and 10 as a useful barometer of where I think the SP should be.

Anyone would think Leon had a crystal ball on the copper having done the deals on tailings between $5,500 and $6,000. Looking like a very good move as we sit here now.

Northern

600k processed per annum with up to 8.5mt of material if we take up the options.

So potentially 14 years

Remember Roan is in 3 phases
Feb - low grade concentrate, May - Mid Grade and Aug - High Grade.

The onto Elephant which I would guess will follow a similar pattern but over 12 months.

I would be interested to see if the increased cashflow from the PGM's side could expedite the next phase of the Copper earlier.

We know they love a Thursday release of RNS - tomorrow for Roan?

Northern

Gshivers,

Elephant 1 and 2 are within 50km (Kitwe area). Can't find anything on Roan in my immediate notes but I vaguely remember Ndola being mentioned (But could be wrong on that). That said they are all within close proximity as JLP have referenced this will bring additional operational efficiencies.

Patience GShivers!

Whilst we all like days where it flies up I am happy with a nice steady build. All LTH's know where this is heading even without the recent boosts to metals prices.

One query I did have - the concentrate at Elephant we know is 6:1 Copper to Cobalt. Has anyone seen anything to indicate what the grading is at Roan?

I have used 1:10 to de-risk my forecast but would be good to get some firmer numbers.

Thanks Dorfan, reassuring post and confirms the assumptions I had made albeit from afar.

Gshivers, I look back on Leons business case for the Copper which is profitable at $6,000 - the rise and prospect of higher metals prices is all gravy!

Not forgetting Leon likes a 1pm news release on a Thursday. My guess is next Thursday for Roan, but who knows it could come earlier.

I look back at the times when our PGM operations were profitable at $850 oz Platinum and $8,000 oz Rhodium...

Market may be slow to cotton on to JLP earnings potential but they will in time

I am surprised we haven't seen the share price move on the platinum prices! Almost feels like a coiled spring waiting for news on Roan.
This years P&L just gets better and better let alone next year when the copper ramps up

Spot on Jonah - will make sense to anyone getting Marula or Twickers

Sorry Shivers you are correct - I didn't read down that far