Member Info for NorthernShark

Homey, they now have more control and increased future revenue streams. In short they have acquired an asset which will bring an associated cashflow for years to come.

I deem it as a good strategy but thats obvioulsy only my opinion

Northern

My thoughts are that I am disappointed that Colin specifically said no dilution and yet here we are.

That said they have always said they would invest in the right opportunities. This undoubtedly gives a stronger future revenue stream and the control over the projects as we move forward which is another benefit.

More importantly it also keeps the balance sheet very strong in terms of minimal debt levels. I like a few others on here think there are other opportunities in the pipeline which we don't know about.

Ultimately Leon (and Colin) have executed their strategy superbly over the last few years so that gives me confidence this is a good move over the longer term.

Northern

Well well well, looks like Leon and the management team have been busy in the background. Like many I was getting a little concerned about the recent drop in the share price which looked out of kilter with the results to say the least.

Management have for a while been mentioning the unused refining capacity in Zambia. The relationship with ZCCM looks to be a good one and looking at their portfolio of companies I am sure other opportunities will be looked at in time. I seem to recall Colin mentioning 1bn t of tailings in Zambia so only half way there...
Happy to see the time horizons on the copper moving forward but Roan seems to have slipped a touch but given the strange times we are living in I can accept that. Don't forget that Sable can be upgraded as well to further push up capacity.
Add in Eastern Limb and Cyprus and the deck looks full but utilising exisiting redundant infrastructure will help with mobilising projects as seems to be the case here.

Well done Leon and the team - what you have achieved in the last few years is really quite remarkable!
Northern

I would rather they keep growing the business while they are leading the way.

Dividends can be paid once the business starts to mature but we are not here yet

JLP, decent numbers as expected. For me the important thing is how the improvements during the year feed through into forward looking numbers.

Given the increased cost of production on the PGM side I think they have also absorbed some of the development costs into the earnings numbers. Should make the comparables next year look better. I don't get the trucking cost element as this only applied from June.

Brokers note to follow hopefully and should add some meat to the bones.

Lots to look forward to and the story is only just starting to unfold IMHO.

Northern

Uktruman, unfortunately despite what some people say the SP will be very hard to predict.

A lot of the potential SP movement will depend on the ramp up of the copper and other intiatives. Some clarity on timing and how the existing operations are performing will be key to this. The appreciation of the metals prices has been great timing for Jubilee and the cash generation may allow project timelines to be brought forward which is what I hope we hear from the forthcoming update.

I am an investor rather than a trader and am happy to hold until some of the true value is reflected in the share price and unlikely to sell any of my holding until we see 50p+. If what Leon and Colin have alluded to regarding approaches to Jubilee about other projects comes to fruition then I can only see this as the start of the story (and share price appreciation).

Northern

Depends on what the reason for the apparent "delay" is.

My guess is they are working on another deal or potentially releasing news at the same time as an industry partner (depending on size of the deal)

Either way I believe it will be very positive as can't think of any other reason for waiting

Dorfan, I agree.

I am particularly looking forward to getting an update on the copper projects. With the increased cash flow from operations are we able to bring forward the timescales for Elephant 1 and 2? Leon had a glint in his eye when he talked about innovations in the copper processing!

Also progress on the Zinc circuit as well as how the enhancements at Inyoni feed through to earnings on the Chrome and PGM side.

Much to look forward to. I would also like to see an updated corporate presentation and brokers note to demonstrate how these enhancements will impact on ongoing earnings.

Didn't even mention Cyprus or Eastern Limb...

Northern

Mammon, thanks for your note and good to hear from someone with more knowledge on the processes than most.

What gives me comfort is the smile on Leons face when he talked about the enhancements made in the copper processing.

Also, they have repeatedly mentioned they only do deals when they are absolutely comfortable with the ability to process the particular dumps.

They would rather walk away than do a bad deal.

I am looking forward to getting some more detail from the company as well as an updated company presentation and supporting brokers note.

Today would be nice Leon!

Northern

Shiner,
I am surprised CMRS has released this independently of JLP Operations update and would have thought the two would have been released at the same time as another couple of days wouldn't make much difference to CMRS.

Maybe an intraday RNS as we used to in the past (eyes peeled at 1pm!) or Thursday being the favourite day?

Northern

WOBF - not quite.

Sable was ready early in the year and has been processing own (Kabwe) tails plus more latterly some ROM material.

Roan started delivering material in May for refining with a view to ramping up over three phases.

Not clear on how much material has been processed pre-Roan but deducting the PGM and Chrome earnings from total earnings gives us a clue.

Northern

From Tharisas results released today

PGM basket to Mar-21 $3,290 and to Jun-21 $3,804
Chrome price Mar-21 $155 to Jun-21 $160

Northern

3,480 for me Mikie but on reflection this may be a little toppy but will stick with it

Northern

Same here Mikie - looking forward not just to the results (which I expect to be very good) but more to the forward looking guidance.

I would like to see more information on the copper projects and associated timings plus the plans for the Kabwe Zinc, Lead and Vanadium workstreams to enhance the environmental credentials.

Should be another broker note or company presentation to follow the results which should give us this clarity (and help me update my forecast spreadsheet!)

Northern

I wouldn't be nervous Charttopper. I think they will have plenty to say!

Eastern Limb PGM
Inyoni expansion and operational efficiencies
Roan progress (2021/2022 Catalyst) plus plans for Mikies Elephants
Cyprus progress

Many many positive catalysts to drive the price forward in my opinion. Only just the start of the Jubilee Story

Mogli,
I have similar numbers - PGM £79m (based on 26k ozs for H2)
Chrome £6.3m
Copper/Cobalt £8.9m
Earnings £94.4m

Northern

As we are in the last day of the Qtr I decided to work out the JLP basket price using the Johnson Matthey averages:

Q1 - $1,553
Q2 - $1,876
Q3 - $2,546
Q4 - $2,838

On the assumption the production rates are broadly similar and more revenue from copper and fixed price chrome agreements the margins should be very healthy indeed.

Key lookout in the earnings report will be any indication on the copper production / ramp up forecast.

It would also be good to get an updated company presentation (if any of the management team are monitoring this board as I beleive they do on occasion).

Northern

Completely agree Craig - there are so many opportunities to grow the business using our own cash generation.

Jubes have first mover advantage in this space so need to maximise this opportunity as others in time will no doubt try to emulate our success. However, how many have the recent track record that Jubilee has?

This has the real opportunity to grow exponentially over the medium term and would rather use the cash we generate to make this happen.

Not long until results...

Northern

Anyone done any calculations on the PGM basket price for the Eastern Limb feed material?

I have worked out that based on June average basket price and upping the Rhodium content by 5% and reducing the platinum content by 5% this adds circa $1000 an oz to the basket price.

This maybe a little out but taking $800 as a worst case scenario it still adds massively to the earnings profile!

Northern

https://www.***************************/jubilee-metals-group-significant-pgm-feed-agreement-interview/412996551

Leon is visibly very excited!

My take - Eastern Limb will expand very quickly with more deals in the offing.
Zambia - almost couldn't contain himself when talking copper circuit design enhancements which he will enlighten us on soon. The technical team sounds like they have gone into overdrive which is great news.

Northern