Member Info for NoQuestionMarks

JG68,

Yes, I did mean 0.0881p, missed out a 0!

It still stands with what I wrote that at today's AXL valuation of 316p, equates to a valuation of 27.8p for each Dowlais share (0.0881 x 316)

Add the 43p cash element and that gets you to 70.8p.

Under the revised terms we will receive a little more than the pricing offer. 43p per share and 0.881 shares for each Dowlais shares held.

American axle trading today at 316p equates to a value of 27.p per dowlais share, if the deal was done today, added to the 43p cash payment that comes to 70.8p per share in total for each Dowlais share.

Stripping out covid american axle is trading at around a 10 year low. Surely better days are ahead for US auto sector.

I'm adding to my holding as a long term hold.

aimo.

Imported gas via pipelines from Norway is actually lower in CO2 than our domestic production. I guess its due to them producing at scale from huge fields whereas our production is now from a large number of small fields.

Still, our domestic production is nearly 4 times cleaner than imported LNG. So, what do we do?

The tories and Labour both came to the conclusion.... we will import LNG!

Norway (via pipeline) = 8kg of CO2 per boe.

Domestic = 21kg of CO2 per boe

Imported LNG = 79kg of CO2 per boe

https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/north-sea-gas-is-almost-four-times-cleaner-than-lng-imports/

This report was put together nearly two years ago to highlight the need to avoid imported LNG, IF our goal is to clean up the environment.

The tories and now Labour have ignored it in favour of offshoring their emissions just so they can say we met our 'net zero goal'

It is pitiful.

You could be right diamondguru.

I recall rockrose doing one at a 20% premium to the previous 60 day average price per share.

I didn't sell then and I won't sell now.

I'm working on the day of the agm unfortunately. Your questions 1,2 and 3 are exactly what I would like answers to, so please ask them.

Hopefully by the 30th we will be on production at the Jotun FPSO.

So, my understanding of the special resolutions is that the company will capitalise the £122m merger reserve, subject to shareholder and court approval.

The proceeds will be used as the company sees fit, but they hint that shareholder returns are possible.

If all resolutions are approved they will have the authority to buy back up to 25% of the shares in issue. They will also have the authority to issue up to 66.6% of the shares in issue.

Flexibility is what the company are asking us for. Trust in their judgement to do what's best for us and them.

A dividend, whether it be a one off 'special' or interim/final would suit us all fine.

If the share price lingers around 150p I would combine it with a buyback programme. The company could hold the shares until such time as the market wakes up. The shares could then be re-sold into the market. Or, simply cancel them, thereby reducing the shares in issue.

If our share price rises significantly on the other hand, the Company can issue further shares, generating more cash to fund growth through M & A or organically.

The board are asking a lot from us but as with Rockrose we know they can deliver.

aimo

Link to the AGM notice pdf download.

https://wp-kistos-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2025/06/Kistos-Holdings-plc-AGM-Notice-4123-4257-1613-1.pdf

Seems highly likely the resolution will pass, and if the court approves we can look forward to dividends in the near future.

aimo

I usually take the divi as cash and then re-invest when the price drops under 230p.

I'm going to do the same this time but can see that sooner or later LGEN is going to establish a new trading range where 250p may well be 'the bottom'

aimo

Yes it's the Netherlands.

Until a long term future for P15-D or otherwise is decided I expect decline to continue (Orion needs mods to P15-D)

UK and Norway have both been around 2.5 to 3k barrels per day for as long as I can remember.

Jotun should be producing soon and within a few months should be producing at a peak of 80k bpd. By year end I would expect us to be doing 10k to 12k barrels per day with no contribution from the Netherlands.

Company guidance for the year is in excess of 8k barrels per day.

No need to worry.

aimo

Spero up 250% or thereabouts on the back of this news.

An oral drug anti-biotic capable of treating drug resistant UTI's would be a very good seller and may open the door to other novel oral anti-biotic uses.

Now the phase III trial has been delivered we ate due to pay Spero -$150m milestone payment.

We now takeover development, filing and commercialisation.

Worth noting we have rights for all countries other than Japan and some other asian countries.

Sales milestone payment capped at $225m on net sales above $1bn with royalties above this figure in the high single to low double digits.

We also have $9m stake in 7.5m shares in Spero purchased at $1.2. Spero now trading at $2.5 per share.

GSK keeps ticking over, eventually the market will catch up.

Buying under £14.

aimo

Production for March came in at 6.5k barrels per day.

Oil produced 2942 barrels per day.

Gas produced 3546 boepd.

UK. 20% net production= 2304 boepd of gas and 175b/d of oil.

Norway. 10% net production= 2767b/d of oil

Netherlands. 60% net production= 1242 boepd of gas.

aimo

When Kistos was trading a 122p you said they 'had a difficult period ahead'

Now we are at 152p....

Therefore, I take your comments with a pinch of salt.

European gas prices have risen 10% in May, rebounding after 3 months of decline.

Germany has opposed the restart of the Nordstream pipe lines from Russia and Europe in general is pushing ahead to end reliance on Russian gas.

Maintenance in Norway has tightened supply and some LNG cargoes are being redirected to the middle east where demand is rising. Europe still has a lot of empty storage vessels to fill.

Once production starts Jotun in Norway we'll be producing around 8 to 10k barrels of oil per day.

Gas will account for around 3k boepd, far more relevant for us is the price of oil.

Brent at $63 per barrel and UK gas at 87p per therm is historically above average and is only suppressed due to fears around DT and his reciprocal tariff policy.

Some bumps along the way but I expect Kistos to continue to climb.

aimo

Waldorf have kicked the can down the road until September. They intend to restructure their finances by way of a Scots law restructuring plan.

Their interest in Columbus has been promised to Capricorn Energy as part payment for a debt to them.

All very confusing 😕

https://waldorf-production.com/news/

Once again we 'wee' shareholders have been proven right in our skepticism regarding the offer from Enquest.

It's a shame we were ignored in our doubts regarding Tailwind, but that is history now.

Serica has risen 19% in the past month, whereas Enquest has fallen 16%. The market has clearly spoken.

aimo

Hi Nkotb,

It's all there on page 9, estimated at the end of 2024.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://waldorf-production.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Waldorf-Production-quarterly-report-Q4-24.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjJpo6Rnb-NAxVqXEEAHU1iG-oQFnoECCMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2FSeD1bI_UFXCFRUxYnnNT

It would be lovely to see this government try to explain to us poor tax payers how we have been left holding the baby.

How these pre iously tax yielding assets have suddenly become a liability for us all (I would imagine they'd try to blame the tories)

I hope our board are on the ball and have ran the rule over picking up Waldorf's takes in Columbus, Bittern and the Triton FPSO. $10m decom taken into account of course.

I wouldn't touch any of their other assets due to the decom liabilities.

aimo

From Columbus they probably net 500 boepd and from Bittern less than that. Certainly not more than 1k boepd from both in my opinion.

They have an abandonment expenditure estimate for Columbus at $4m and for Bittern $6m.

Selling these assets will make little difference to us and little difference to them, but as they say, every little helps. I guess the bondholders will decide.

Their decom estimates total $936m. $267m for Scott, $208m for Alba, $181m for Catcher and $123m for Kraken being by far the main liabilities. Alba is due to cease production in 2026, followed by Kraken in 2029 and Catcher in 2030....

They are in deep trouble as far as I can see.

aimo

I note that Waldorf's CEO, CFO and Chief of Staff ceased employment with the company last Friday. The long awaited financial restructuring, promised no later than May 2025 has still no been announced publicly.

Now would seem an opportune time to 'hoover' up their interests in our licences?

They have 2.42% in Bittern. If we acquired that we would then hold a 67.05% interest in Bittern. Dana holding the other 32.95%.

They have 25% in Columbus If we acquired that we would then hold a 100% interest

They have 2% of the Triton FPSO. Acquiring that would take our interest up to 48%.

It would seem that Waldorf could do with the cash.... so at the right price.... why not?

aimo

Dowlais tracking the falls in European autos after DT threatens 50% tariff on EU, he says negotiations are going nowhere. No surprise there, the EU moves like a sloth.

BMW -4.2%

Mercedes -4.7%

Portche -5%

Stellantis -5%

The EU will presmuably respond in kind until some compromise is achieved.

Hopefully we can use the merger to minimise the effects of both on us.

Glad I could help armani,

Whilst the shares are in treasury they have no voting right. This prevents the board using them to push through an agenda not supported by shareholders.

However, If the share price rises significantly (as we all hope/expect) they are free to sell them back into the market making profit for the company.

aimo

The company hasn't bought shares for treasury since 2014. The shares held in treasury had dropped to 169m at the end of 2024. The company has authority to hold up to 411m shares in treasury which is just under 10% of the shares in issue. The first £700m of the buyback is going to be used to 'bump' up the companies holdings in treasury.

£700m is probably going to buy around 50m shares which will takes the companies holdings in treasury up to around 220m shares.

The treasury shares will be used to honour bonus agreements with employees in the coming years.

The rest of the buyback shares will then be purchased for cancellation as far as I am aware.

Just my take for what it's worth.

Dana's timeframe for restart seems to have slipped slightly. On the latest Investor meet company, ChrisCox said that Dana were forecasting restart in early June. However, Serica were forecasting towards the end of June as a contingency against disappointing the market once again.

Now the company says restart around the end of June.

Let us hope Dana deliver in June and it doesn't rollover into July.