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Good post areyouminted,

I sold all my other stocks a couple of weeks ago as I think an AI correction is coming sooner or later. The only shares I hold are Kistos. I topped up yesterday, and, if we see 150p again I'll be adding heavily (for me) I do not want to miss the move upwards that I expect will be out of the blue and rapid in nature. With so little free float available it is bound to be.

Another positive for us today was Ithaca taking 50% of the Tobermory discovery from Shell. The logical place for Tobermory gas will presumably be the Shetland gas plant further reducing opex per barrel.

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/ithaca_energy/rns/regulatorystory.aspxcid=1028&newsid=2007803&culture=en-GB&val=638992381367695793

We just have to be patient and add on weakness.

aimo

Ed Miliband has just said on radio four, with no hint of irony, that he can't see any evidence that last years budget has affected growth in the economy.....

Wise decision Seaking21, I'm 25% cash 75% equities.

With the VIX still below 20 and the S and P 500 p/e ratio at 30 things still look favourable.

However, the 'big sharks' will strike sooner or later, markets have to correct eventually.

Be ready for it.

aimo

When we breached 1800p in 2020 and 2022 the share price collapsed. Will it hold this time?

I don't think NEO/Repsol will go after Total's 49.99% stake, not now they have 50.01% non operated interest after taking BP's 32%.

I was surprised they took up their preemption rights as I thought they would prefer to pursue Total's stake, and with it, become operators of the licence.

It has been widely reported that Total and NEO/Repsol have been in talks regarding sales of north sea assets, so I can only assume that Culzean is an asset that Total would like to hang on to.

Who knows what RR has in store in the budget, in a few weeks time we may sees this disappointment as 'dodging a bullet'

aimo

Hi NKOTB,

My post was unclear.

I know Dana continue to be operators of the Triton FPSO.

What I was referring to was the Wagtail licence P2530. Finder were operators with a 60% interest. We have acquired 40% of their operating interest leaving them with 20%. It would be odd for Finder to retain operator status with just 20% but the rns wasn't clear on who will operate the licence going forward.

Do you get me now?

Hi NKOTB,

My post may have been unclear.

I know that

Wagtail is a tie back to existing infrastructure, even Ed Miliband has said these type of developments will be allowed. If the economics stack up it is another Kyle-like addition to Triton resources. We just need to keep the FPSO in good order to get the oil out of the ground....

I assume we are now operators? That's how I read the rns, do thers see it that way?

I don't see any other concessions being forthcoming with regards to exploration. When the general rate of taxation is going up I can't see Labour being seen as giving handouts to 'energy giants who make billions at the expense of the UK bill payer'

If they de-couple the link in thresholds between Oil and Gas we will be OK, that is the extent of my optimism with this government.

aimo

Good morning all,

Sorry for not posting the recent monthly production figures, for one reason or another I just didn't get round to it.

However, here are the figures for June, July and August (to the best of my knowledge).

I think they show our rising production profile as Jotun ramped up quite nicely, which has coincided, not unsurprisingly, with our rising share price.

Happy Days!

June: 5168 barrels/day

July: 7534 barrels/day

August: 11,051 barrels/day

Breakdown.

NORWAY

June 2942 barrels/day.

July 4092 barrels/day

August 6578 barrels/day

UK

June 2095 boepd gas 131 b/d oil.

July 2228 boepd gas 185 b/d oil.

August 2623 boepd gas 124 b/d oil

NETHERLANDS

June 0 boepd

July 1029 boepd

August 1726 boepd

aimo.

OEUK have written to the chancellor to ask her to consider the following change to EPL. For the good of the UK economy and the environment we can only hope she listens.

1) Restore investor confidence and long-term competitiveness of the UK’s offshore oil and gas industry by replacing the temporary EPL with a permanent profits-based mechanism. This must be implemented in 2026 not 2030.

• Profits based mechanism targeting the proportion of the rent that sits above the threshold.

• Trigger prices for both oil and gas.

• Threshold levels set based on 85th percentile of 10-year historical prices.

• Total 78% Tax Rate applied above the threshold: CT 30% SC 10% Additional Tax 38%.

• Total 40% Tax Rate applied below the threshold: CT 30% SC 10% Additional Tax 0%.

Decisions on the future of UK oil and gas licensing and the response to the Finch ruling are important. However, as we have evidenced, it is vital that the UK has an oil and gas fiscal regime implemented in 2026 that attracts and retains investment into national production.

https://oeuk.org.uk/oeuk-shows-how-to-boost-uk-economy-by-137-billion-and-safeguard-160000-jobs/

OEUK have asked the chancellor to consider ending the current WFT regime in 2026 and replacing it with;

• Trigger prices for both oil and gas.

• Threshold levels set based on 85th percentile of 10-year historical prices.

• Total 78% Tax Rate applied above the threshold: CT 30% SC 10% Additional Tax 38%.

• Total 40% Tax Rate applied below the threshold: CT 30% SC 10%

https://oeuk.org.uk/oeuk-shows-how-to-boost-uk-economy-by-137-billion-and-safeguard-160000-jobs/

Yes, a huge beat on analysts expectations.

Core EPS of 55p versus an analyst consensus of 47.1p and revenue of £8.55bn versus £8.24bn.

As I have said repeatedly over the last couple of years, having several opportunites to buy at under £14 were golden opportunities not to be missed.

Roberto always seemed on top of his game and this statement concerned me slightly. I don't like uncertainty and was in profit so I bailed this morning. DWL/AXL Still on my watchlist though "Following discussions with Mr. Fioroni, he has indicated that he wishes to pursue other opportunities"

Not unexpected but unsettling for all concerned all the same.

Petrofac provides maintenance and support services to the Bruce platform and well management services to the Triton Area.

Summary of the US sanctions on Russia courtesy of trading economics.

"The US has banned state-owned giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, in a move aimed at increasing pressure on the Kremlin over Moscow’s lack of commitment to peace in Ukraine. Rosneft, led by Putin ally Igor Sechin, and Lukoil together account for nearly half of Russia’s oil exports, about 2.2 million barrels per day, with oil and gas revenues making up roughly a quarter of the federal budget. After the sanctions, Trump said he would press major buyers, planning to discuss Russian oil imports with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week, following his reiteration that India would reduce its purchases. EU countries have also agreed on a new Russian sanctions package, scheduled for adoption Thursday, including a ban on Russian LNG imports."

Delaying the move until next April (at the earliest) makes sense. IF Triton has no unplanned shutdowns between now and then we will be a far more appetising dish for the market to price.

The deals done are more than enough to be going on with. The company now needs to get its head down improving Triton up-time, maintaining strong production at BKR whilst also integrating the new assets to our portfolio.

With regards to Balder, everything seems to ge going as well as we could hope.

Jotun project complete and the project team have been demobilised.

Three of the six Balder V wells expected to commence production in Q4.

Balder VI economics look very strong. Breakeven price below $35 per barrel with an internal rate of return above 35%.

Balder Next being progressed. Once the Balder FPU is taken to shore for decommissioning in 2028 and production routed through Jotun we can expect to save around $130m per annum in gross operating costs.

"The above projects are steps to ensure high value barrels from the Balder area towards 2045 and beyond"

Our 10% share is now a very valuable asset that we should thank the board for their opportunism in spotting the deal and then holding out until we got it for €1 plus Mime's debt.

Absolutely NOT,

Now is the time to concentrate on Triton.

If ENQ refinance their debt and we achieve stable production in excess of 50k boepd, that would be a time to consider a merger.

If they can't refinance, we can then pick up their producing UK assets at 'Prax' prices.

aimo

At the time of the Tailwind acquisition I questioned the wisdom of relying on an FPSO at the end of its design life.

Mitch Flegg dismissed my question by saying that most of the NS infrastructure is operating beyond its design life.

Serica supposedly did internal and external due diligence on the vessel.....

I think their haste to 'do a deal' may have resulted in a very poor deal.

As they say, No deal is better than a bad deal.

Kemi Badenoch has just said that the Tories will scrap EPL once in government.

She gets my vote.