Member Info for NoQuestionMarks

American Axle closed at $5.88 yesterday, above the $5.82 closing price upon which the combination was based, huge improvement on the $3 year lows in April.

However, the pound has strengthened to 1.35 whereas the deal was based on 1.24 so we've lost a little there.

By my reckoning if the deal completed today we would effectively receive just over 81p for each of our shares (43p cash and 0.0881 AXL shares valued at ~38p)

As an aside, UBS recently raised their price target from $7 to $7.50

aimo

The standout from the results was the growth in PRT business. Tension risk transfer (bulk annuity) business more than doubled to £3.4bn with an additional £1.7bn written since period end....

My strategy? Take the dividends as cash, re-invest them on the dips, have patience.

aimo

A presentation of the results by Liam and Roberto will be broadcast on sparkliveat 9am tomorrow. Register for free.

https://sparklive.lseg.com/DOWLAISGROUP/events/9bd1e212-067d-41e3-8245-c73f6db4a67b/dowlais-h1-f25-results

It was good to hear my question answered regarding Triton operator status. With 70% to 80% of production going through Triton being net to Serica it surely makes more sense for us to operate seeing as we benefit most financially.

The CEO confirmed he would like to operate the vessel and has spoken to Dana about it but would not be drawn further.

According to Octopus energy, £717m has been spent this year to turn OFF wind turbines.

They keep a running total of the money wasted, money that we all pay for in our energy bills.

Hope the link works.

https://wastedwind.energy/2025-08-04

Redwineday,

I'm hoping for a scenario where Kistos and Rockrose split Totals interest, leaving us and them with 40% each and Ineos retaining their 20%.

The market for domestically produced gas should be strong for decades, the only cleaner source is piped gas from Norway.

Ed Miliband and Labour will be out of office in 2030, at the latest. Hopefully then we get a government that uses our resources to provide tax revenue and jobs for the UK.

At the right price I think it would be a risk worth taking.

aimo

Total energies are still operators and 40% licence interest owners of the Greater Laggan Area.

"The transaction to sell our West of Shetland asset to Prax has not yet completed and as such we remain the operator of the Shetland Gas Plant and related fields," TotalEnergies EP UK said in its statement on the 2nd of July.

Their 40% interest has been producing around 4000boepd over the last year or so.

When we purchased our 20% interest in early 2022 the production from that 20% was around 8000boepd.

So, production is a quarter of what it was then. In 2022 Total accepted a firm consideration of $125m , with a contingency based on future gas prices and another on a gas discovery.

If we could leave the decommissioning liabilities with Total this could be a deal worth pursuing, at the right price of course.

aimo

*Please note* The mmscf/d figures given for the UK are the total production figures, not our 20% net interest.

May was a bad month. Production for the month came in at around 4.5k barrels per day, down from 5.3k barrels per day in April.

There was no production whatsoever from the Netherlands.

Our 10% interest from Norway produced 2572 barrels per day of oil.

Our 20% interest in the UK produced 1932boepd of gas and 27b/d of oil. (Laggan 24.5mmscf/d, Glenlivet 21.7mmscf/d, Tormore 8.8mmscf/d)

aimo

I have asked the company whether it is technically viable to refit the Western Isles FPSO to replace Triton if it were deemed necessary. Hopefully they'll give us a yes/no answer on the 5th.

The sentence in this week's update that read "We are continuing to drive discussions with senior management at Dana regarding the optimal way to run the FPSO going forward.” led me to believe that Serica would like to assume operator status. I have asked this also.

Get your questions in at the link below.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/2025-half-year-results

As widely predicted, following Orsted walking away from Hornsea 4, the maximum prices the government is prepared to pay for clean energy have risen yet again. DESNZ have also extended contracts from 15 to 20 years.

Offshore wind: £113 per MWh (up from £102 in 2024)

Floating offshore wind: £271 per MWh (up from £245 in 2024)

Onshore wind: £92 per MWh (up from £89 in 2024)

Solar: £75 per MHh (down from £85 in 2024)

The average price of electricity generated from gas in 2024 was £77 per MWh, and the pre-energy crisis average between 2017 and 2020 was £43 per MWh.

I can't imagine the final strike price for wind and solar is going to compete with gas at 2024 prices, can you?

Conservative Shadow Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho said: "These are eye-watering prices - the highest in a decade and way above the average cost of electricity last year. And this is before the hidden costs of grid, storage and wasted wind which all end up on our energy bills"

https://orsted.com/en/company-announcement-list/2025/05/orsted-to-discontinue-the-hornsea-4-offshore-wind--143901911

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly8ynegwn4o

https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/rising-gas-costs-drive-up-gb-electricity-prices/

Looking at GSK's pipeline of drugs there is a phase III trial of Blenrep in combination Revlimid (Lenalidomide) and dexamethasone currently in progress. There is also a phase II open ended platform study of Blenrep in combination with anti-cancer treatments still ongoing.

So, GSK are still exploring the potential for better combinations which may be more favourably viewed by the FDA advisory panel.

The ODAC seemed to base their decision largely around the fact that a side effect of the treatment is that around one third of patients experience blurred vision. Balancing this against the result of the DREAMM-7 trial that suggested that progression free survival was tripled from around 13 months to 36 months is a hard decision to make. Personally, I think I would have approved, an extra two years of life is huge.

The US was projected to be about half of Blenrep sales so it is obviously a blow but if the EU and China approve we still have ~$2bn of potential sales.

I added a few at 1320 but I think we have to accept that Blenrep is turning into a damp squib. The ODAC voted 5 to 3 against Blenrep/Velcade/dexamethasone and 7 to 1 against Blenrep/Pomalyst/dexamethasone. So, even in combination with other drugs Blenrep is failing to convince the authorities.

This article summarises the meeting pretty well and has a link to the FDA briefing published ahead of the adcomm meeting

https://pharmaphorum.com/news/gsks-growth-plans-dented-blenrep-setback

aimo

Here is the link to the text of yesterdays statement by Ed Miliband.

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-07-14/debates/FBD99ED2-C8BA-4FF2-B072-FB8D853BDCEB/StateOfClimateAndNature#contribution-815787A4-46A0-4DDF-AC07-2B3B10161451

He is not going to row back, when the true costs become clear this will be another nail in Labours coffin.

aimho

GSK reminds me of the market reaction to Microsoft in the period from 2000-2010.

Constantly on CNBC they would debate "will microsoft ever get over $30 a share" Apple was all powerful and Microsoft's windows OS was yesterday's news.

The share price in 2025? Over $500....

The market is frequently wrong, you just need the courage of your convictions and patience.

aimo

I think you are right, the focus is now Norway and then the UK a distant second. Netherlands? Who knows.

On a brighter note, as has been said by other posters, there isn't much left to write down.

Page 14 of the annual report states that the carrying value of the exploration and development assets in the Netherlands is nil after impairments in the current and previous years.

aimo

CORRECTION

*The Netherlands was down from an already low figure in March of 1.2k boepd to just 463 boepd*

Production for the month was down on the previous month at 5.3k barrels per day.

The Netherlands was down from an already low figure in March of 1.2k boepd to just 4632.2k boepd.

The UK was down from 2.5k boepd in March to 1.7k boepd in April.

The Netherlands was up a little on March to 2.9k barrels per day.

In total we did 3.1k barrels per day of oil and 2.2k boepd of gas.

Thank heavens for Jotun.

aimo

I agree Mommur,

GLA Yes, Lancaster No

Receivers probably want a total sale but I would hope Serica at least ask the question.

Prax group's parent company State Oil has gone into receivership. The receiver is reportedly considering a sale of the upstream business.

Prax upstream owns Lancaster and had agreed to buy 40% of the Greater Laggan Area licence ans Shetland gas plant from Total. Lancaster has been producing at 6000bpd and Total's share of production from the GLA is around 7500boepd.

One to consider for Serica?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2k11xze2jyo