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More good news, AA was confident that the $45m would never be paid and he's been proven right.

The 2024 Norwegian tax refund is estimated to be just over £54m, expected to be received early December.

First oil in June 🤞

Looking good.

What price a 50% interest in Lixus NEWQ?

I suppose it depends on what you paid for your shares?

For me it has been mixed.

My average is just over £14, so I'm about break even.

However, I am taking the divi and re-investing whenever we drop into the £13 region.

Long term I see us reaching £18 again and if the pipeline delivers and we hit projected sales by 2030 I can see GSK in the low £20 region.

Patience needed.

Dana are looking to recruit an offshore installation manager for Triton. I guess heads have rolled following recent failures.

https://www.dana-petroleum.com/working-for-us/careers/oim-triton-fpso/

Serica's response.

"While there would have been strategic and financial benefits to the combination, in light of current market volitility an agreement on terms that would have been in the best interests of shareholders was not possible at this time.

The Board remains very confident in Serica's standalone ability to generate significant cash flow and deliver shareholder value and highly competitive shareholder returns from its balanced portfolio of oil and gas assets. Delivering sustainable operational improvement remains paramount. In parallel, the Company continues to pursue its clear growth strategy, as detailed in the 2024 full-year results, progressing numerous organic growth opportunities across the portfolio as well as actively screening a number of cash-generative and value accretive M&A opportunities in both the UK North Sea and other geographies."

Thank heavens that, for whatever reason, the deal hasn't gone through.

Now the board can concentrate on doing their jobs.

1 Sort Triton out.

2. Exceed production guidance for the year.

Do that and I'll be a very happy shareholder.

Smkr,

You have to remember that we already produce around 2800b/d from Norway as it is.

So, at best, it will be an extra 5000b/d or so.

I'll be delighted if we can average around 6000b/d from Norway in the next few years.

aimo

Production for February came in at around 7.1k barrels per day made up of 3k b/d of oil and 4.1k boepd of gas.

Breakdown.

Norway. Total production 28,000 barrels per day. 10% net to us = 2800b/d.

Netherlands. Total production 2678boepd. 60% net to us = 1607boepd.

UK. Total production 73mmscf/d of gas and 840b/d of oil. 20% net to us = 14.6mmscf/d or 2588boepd if you prefer and 168b/d of oil.

Production from Glenlivet 30mmscf/d, Laggan 30mmscf/d, Tormore 13mmscf/d.

aimo

Oilviking1,

A 21p special divi is not much of a carrot for me... I receive that annually from Serica as it is.

Serica do not need Enquest, we have producing assets that require little capex and we have over $1bn of tax losses available to us.

Enquest on the other hand, do need Serica, or another benefactor who can fund the capex needed for Bressay, Bentley, Sullom Voe, SEA, etc etc.

55% and 21p? It's a no for me.

aimo

The bottom line is that Serica's assets are developed and generate revenue.

Most of Enquest's assets, promising as they are, need huge amounts of investment before any revenue can be generated.

I'm all for buying more distressed assets at the right price, but not for this misguided merger.

aimo

Yes, It is looking good.

Natural gas and oil prices recovering from last week's drop.

EU natural gas $35/MWh

UK natural gas 87p per therm

Brent $66 per barrel

The EU's gas storage level is relatively low at around 35% full. This should support prices over the summer as stores are refilled.

The EU met last week to agree to lower the 90% target to 80% if market conditions are 'difficult'

Next winter could be very interesting if they go into it with only 80% in the tank...

aimo

I agree that the chances of the EPL being stopped are slim.

For the 2025 to 2026 financial year the ESIM thresholds are $76.12 per barrel for oil and 59p per therm for gas.

I can see a scenario where oul stays under $76 for 6 months, but gas below 59p is harder to envisage.

UK gas is currently 85p per therm and the lowest it's been in the last 12 months is around 72p.

I think we'll have to hope the 'successor regime' is much fairer to the likes of Serica and is introduced prior to March 2030

aimo

I agree that the Netherlands, with hindsight, was a deal the company must regret.

However, GLA has proven to be an excellent acquisition and Mime promises to be even better.

As the song goes, don't be sad, cos 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

Add to that the diversification brought by the gas storage acquisition from Total and I think we need to cut the bod a little slack.

aimo

Growing evidence that a shingles vaccine reduces the chances of dementia, shingrix gets a mention.

Potentially huge for us.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/02/study-finds-strongest-evidence-yet-that-shingles-vaccine-helps-cut-dementia-risk

To obtain the best outcome in any negotiation you have to negotiate from a position of strength.

If the company delivers on today's forecast we will be in a far stronger position a year or two down the line to negotiate any transactions.

For me the Enquest deal does not make sense (decom liabilities and debt being foremost in my mind)

aimo

Production for the month came in at around 6.5k barrels per day. Steady as she goes. Gas/Oil split roughly 65/35

UK

Laggan, Tormore and Glenlivet continue to produce, whilst Edradour still not on production. 20% Net production = 2446boepd of gas and 65b/d of oil.

Norway

10% net production = 2330b/d of oil

Netherlands

60% net production = 1680boepd of gas.

Just had a look on marinetraffic.com and the FPSO appears to be have left the quayside and is in Amoyfjorden. It could have been there a while as this is the first time I have looked.

Inshore sea trials and anchor installation work will be carried out here and then she is towed to the field for installation, hook up to the subsea production systems and final commissioning.

Fingers crossed 🤞

Mommur,

Thanks for your time taken to explain the nuts and bolts of what may be happening on the ground, I really value your comments

The rns of the 19th pf March said: "Due to the ongoing maintenance issues and the performance of the Triton FPSO over the last 12 months, the Company is discussing with Dana all options to secure a lasting improvement in the operating performance of the FPSO"

We know that Serica have been getting more involved in operations and maintenance at the FPSO. I read this statement from Serica as a polite way of saying that maintenance that should have been done simply hasn't been done. I am preparing myself for the summer shutdown being longer than the 40 days estimated. I'm sure they will try to do as much as they can whilst we are replacing pipework related to the issues discovered after the storm. However, with long lead times on parts I am guessing they won't be able to do too much.

May could easily roll into June, July, August in order to catch up on outstanding maintenance in my opinion.

Just my opinion based on the statement from the rns.

Thoughts?

Totally agree DTP,

Serica should concentrate on establishing, and maintaining, production in excess of 50k boepd.

Enquest should continue to pay down it's debts.

A couple of years down the line we'll be able to assess the longer term UK fiscal environment with more clarity and value each other more accurately.

I can't think of a worse time for Serica to be negotiating what amounts to the sale of 'our' company.

aimo

Just had my investor meet company invite to the 2024 FY results meeting at 9am on the 1st of April.

That should be very interesting.

For those wishing to register follow the link.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/

The market values Serica at just over double the value it places on Enquest (£494m v 240m)

So, for me as a Serica shareholder I expect to own 66% of the new entity, minus any cash consideration Enquest may offer.

You, will probably not agree to those terns which is why I think this deal will struggle to get shareholder approval.

We are better off without you, and you are better off without us.

aimo