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The agreed volumes of Shingrix vaccines purchased by Zhifei has been revised down.

When the original deal was announced in 2023 Zhifei agreed to buy £2.5bn worth over the initial three year period (Jan 2024-Jan 2027)

The revised terms 'expect' Zhifei to purchase £2.3bn worth over the 6 year period 2024-2029. The previously contracted minimum purchase levels no longer apply.

Uptake is obviously not as good as we had hoped. However, we still have a deal with Zhifei that takes us through to 2034 and an agreement to commercialise our RSV vaccine in mainland China.

By 2030 there will be >500m people aged over 50 in China, currently less than 2% have been vaccinated against shingles.

Big market.

Negative news today, but potentially positive over the long term.

Production for the month came in at 6.8k barrels per day.

Netherlands 60% net to kistos = 2050boepd of gas.

Norway 10% net to kistos = 2119bpd of oil.

UK 20% net to kistos = 2535boepd of gas and 130bpd of oil.

aimo

aimo.

More evidence of how poor the Tailwind acquisition was.

Production this year averaged just 10,900 bopd.

We were right all along.

aimo

I've no idea if theres anything concrete driving the buying, my guess would be probably not, just traders taking advantage of our oversold position.

It just goes to show that with only 82m shares in issue... When good news does come we are going to move upwards like a rocket 🚀

I agree DTP, They won't want to release an rns until the 'A' gas compressor is back on line. I think they would also have loved to report that the GE-05 well is on production.

I think there is a problem with the repair..... at the end of October they didn't know what was wrong but speculated it could be a dry gas seal. If that was the case we'd be back on production now in my opinion.

I hope I'm wrong but as I and others commented at the time of the TW acquisition, the Triton FPSO is a bit of a dinosaur

aimo

24 million homes rely on Gas boilers for heating, 1.5 million homes rely on heating oil for heating and 38 million vehicles on our roads run on petrol or diesel.

Ed, Rach and Keir really need to wake up.

Kistos Energy Norway (KENAS) released a Q3 update at the end of October.

1 cargo of crude oil totalling 550k barrels offloaded in the quarter for a price of $78.14 per barrel.

At the end of September they had cash at the bank of $28.7m

They had drawn $57.8m under the revolving credit facility from Kistos plc at the end of September.

They expect to receive a tax refund of ~$82m plus interest in early December.

aimo

Production for the month came in at 7.6k boepd, up from 6.7k boepd in July. The netherlands returned to a more normal level of production which accounted for the change.

Breakdown.

UK

Laggan and Glenlivet producing, Edradour still offline. 20% net production to us = 2393 boepd of gas and 94 b/d of oil.

Netherlands.

60% net production to us = 2218 boepd of gas.

Norway.

10% net production to us = 2957 b/d of oil.

aimo

Var gave an updated cost for the delayed sail away in the spring of 2025. The additional cost is around $400m, which is $40m net to us. Kistos look to have been bang on the money with their internal estimates. We will 'save' $45m that we would have had to pay out on the hybrid bond, so to us, the delay is broadly cost neutral.

Net to us, Balder Phase V unlocks 3.3m barrels of 2P for a $69m outlay. $21 a barrel for barrels that go straight to production is a no brained.

Phase VI being matured and to quote Var "There remains significant additional resource upside in the area and further exploration drilling and tie-back development phases are being planned"

We may see £1. If we do I'll be adding as 12 months from now the wisdom of the Mime deal will become evident.

aimo

Speaking on the Today programme he warned Keir Starmer of the dangers of signalling left but then turning right on his ambition to grow the economy.

The examples he used were:

1. Prioritising growth but then handing employees enhanced rights.

2. Saying you want all parts of the economy to grow whilst simultaneously stifling investment in the north sea.

Are you listening Keir?

20% of global oil exports and 20% of LNG gas exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

A CNBC article analysed the potential price rises if the Strait is blocked by Iran or others.

Kistos have oil, gas, and a gas storage facility.....none of which rely on the Strait of Hormuz. If the worst happens we are very well placed.

aimo

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/strait-of-hormuz-what-supply-disruption-could-mean-for-oil-markets.html?__source=androidappshare

Latest interview of Andrew Austin by Malcy.

Very positive on the future, net debt more like $50m and AA doesn't hide his exasperation with Labour and 'Miliband' in particular.

https://youtu.be/IulZ4S0qYJU

The interims gave us a first look at the earnings potential of the assets acquired at the end of April.

Up to the end of June the assets contributed $1.9m of revenue and there were a further $2.4m in as yet unrealised gains from seasonal trades.

It is still very early days, but with Hill Top increasing its working gas capacity by 24% and the possibility of Hole House being recommissioned in the future we could be looking at a capacity of 40 million therms.

A purchase price of $33m looks like a decent piece of business.

aimo

I have sent the link to my Labour MP, will she watch it? Probably not, but it's worth a shot.

A balanced 78/78 tax system is about as good as we can hope for I think. When you consider that pre EPL we were taxed 40/46 it really is highway robbery.

https://vimeo.com/1010510808/description

Production for the month came in at around 6.7k barrels per day, down from 7.8k per day in June. The drop was due to production in the Netherlands dipping by 50%... P15 again? UK and Norway remain stable.

UK.

20% net to Kistos = 3000 boepd of gas and 162b/d of oil.

Netherlands.

60% net to Kistos = 831boepd of gas.

Norway.

2600b/d of oil.

aimo

June production bounced back to come in at around 7.8k barrels per day. Thanks in main to UK production back to its normal level of production.

UK (GLA)

3420boepd of gas and 165b/d of oil.

Norway

2449b/d of oil

Netherlands

1776boepd of gas

aimo

Here is OEUK's analysis of the impact Labour's proposed changes will have on the economy. I am pleased to see the comparison between the UK and Norway made clear, so clear that any idiot should be able to see the folly of the Labour proposals.

aimo

https://oeuk.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/OEUK-Impact-of-UKCS-Fiscal-Policy-on-UK-Economic-Growth-Autumn-2024-Analysis.pdf.pdf

Redwineday,

Yes, we are entitled to 10% of the 80k bopd, so 8k per day net to us.

The 80k bopd is a peak figure that will decline quite rapidly.

I'm guessing we will average more like 5000-6000 bopd once production settles down, but that is just a guess.

Don't forget drilling for Balder V starts in Q1 of 2025 and Balder VI is approaching FID, there is potentially more to come in the future.

From the earnings call: "But this project is more than that. The FPSO also unlocks future growth opportunities. The Balder Phase V project is being progressed. This involves the drilling of six production wells to utilize the remaining subsea template well slots to capture gross 2P reserves of over 30 million barrels. And the drilling of these wells will commence in the first half of 2025 and be completed in 2026. And Balder Phase VI is being assessed to add new subsea facilities and wells, with sanction of the project targeted in the first half of 2025. So, Balder X, the Balder X project is nearing completion and we can now look forward to many years of value creation ahead."

https://varenergi.no/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT_-Var-Energi-ASAVAR-NO-Q2-2024-Earnings-Call-23-July-2024-4_00-AM-ET.pdf

Equinor fired a warning shot across Labours bow at the end of July when they said "Labour's tax changes should be balanced and business friendly"

Labour continued with their wrecking ball approach seemingly ignoring Equinor.

I think Equinor are more likely to get a positive response from Labour than our homegrown energy companies, Starmer and Reeves frequently cite Norway and it's sovereign wealth fund as their template for the future.

As has been said here numerous times, a united front is needed, all companies operating in the north sea should 'pile in' behind Equinor.

Gloves off time.

aimo

$5 per barrel is cited in numerous reports and presentations by Var Energi. The latest I heard was on the earnings call for Q2 on the 23rd of July "This project unlocks gross production of 80,000 barrels a day and with low operating costs of around $5 per barrel"

Check out the Var website, all transcripts, reports and presentations are there for you to check out.

aimo