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I agree that the terms offered and the market reaction to DWL and AXL points to the deal not going through as it is.

The 25% premium offered was well below the 47% bid premium for UK listed stocks in 2024.

AAM's offer values Dowlais at just 4.1x EV/EBITDA....bargain basement territory.

Cash and shares is also a problem, I suspect most holders would prefer cash only, UK based ones especially.

And then there's the institutions... most of them in from the initial spin out, are they really going to take 44.8p per share and 49% of the enlarged group?

I suppose the potential upside is that Donald Trump will presumably look more favourably on a US domiciled company, maybe we can avoid tariffs?

Dowlais was recovering and will prosper once the EV market gains traction, so no deal would suit me just fine.

However, if someone else shows their hand with an all cash improved offer I could be tempted.

This deal seems to work for the directors but not for shareholders as it stands.

aimo

Hi headder,

Would you mind listing the ownership percentages you have?

I only have the data of major shareholders from morning star.

Fidelity 5.19%

Select equity group Inc 5.12%

T Rowe Price 4.79%

Capital group companies Inc 4.77%

NESO is the national energy system operator, the bods responsible for balancing our electrical network in the UK. There's an app you can download that shows how our electricity is being generated at the current time.

The current mix is:

62% gas

10% imported

10% nuclear

8% biomass

8% wind

3% solar

And Ed thinks we don't need gas...

I agree NKOTB, both seemed very chipper about our prospects.

Things I picked out were.

1. 2024 effective tax rate 40%

2. FY results targeted for 1st April

3. Material returns to shareholders to be maintained.

4. Main market listing, probably FTSE250 targeted for around September time.

5. Base case for Parkmead tax losses is to restructure the organisation so those losses can be used at Triton.

6. Kyle probably the next development to go ahead if clarity on developments is forthcoming.

aimo

The following measures are due to be introduced in April.

1. Increase of around 3% in the energy price cap.

2. Increase in minimum wage.

3. Increase in employer NI contributions.

4. 5% increase in council tax.

More money in pockets for some which will be eaten up by higher prices, higher energy bills and higher council tax bills.

For some it will mean less hours or no job at all.

Joe Public will be asking "Do I feel better off?"

aimo

The employers increase in NI also impacts post 5th April, hitting all businesses big and small. The hospitality industry w

Tank leak reported by a vessel tracking website yesterday, three workers received medical treatment but discharged the same day. Could be something or could be nothing. Var update in February should clarify.

https://www.vesseltracker.com/en/Ships/Jotun-Fpso-Mob-9186168.html

The oil isn't going to disappear and Jotun is designed to produce beyond 2045. May, June, July or August, 2025 is just the start of things in Norway.

I'm curious as to why there was no mention of the Netherlands..... maybe a sale on the cards?

Just a thought.

Startup in early Q3 would suit us just fine, if production starts after 31st of May we pay nothing on the hybrid bond.

The mime and total acquisitions strained the balance sheet but we look to be over the 'hump'.

aimo

Point taken Mommur and I'm reassured to know that someone with your background is reasonably happy with Triton going forward. In answer to my question I'm hoping for a commitment that whilst not operators themselves Serica are going to engage much more closely with Dana and take a more active role in maintenance than Tailwind ever did. The dream scenario for me would be for us to buy out Dana's stake and have the FPSO in our control, I'm sure we'd make a better fist of it than Dana.

Happy to read that Europe's gas reserves are their lowest usage point in 7 years, 70% compared with 86% at this time last year.Restocking those reserves later this year is hopefully going to keep gas prices buoyant.

aimo

Questions can now be submitted for the IMC on the 21st of Jan. Here's mine.

At the investor meet company event on the 10th of January 2023, in relation to the Triton FPSO, I asked the question "Have you considered how the age of the vessel will impact future production" The CEO assured investors that a lot of due diligence had been carried out both by Serica and by an external expert engineering company, he went on to say that because of the standard of maintenance and upgrades carried out Serica were confident that the vessel would not need to be replaced prior to 2035. My question you is this: Allowing production to rely for almost a year on a single gas compressor was bad enough. And then, when that single compressor broke down it appeared to me that there was an inability to accurately diagnose the root cause. With that in mind, How can we as investors trust your production guidance for 2025?

Production for the month came in at 6.7k boepd, 4.3k boepd of gas and 2.4k barrels per day of oil.

Norway 10% net to us = 2299b/d of oil

UK 20% net to us = 2400boepd of gas and 122b/d of oil

Netherlands 60% net to us = 1919boepd of gas.

2024 has been a hard slog, 2025 promises to be better I hope.

Happy new year to all of you

The transit deal for 5% of the EU's gas looks dead. Dutch TTF and UK futures have spiked higher as supplies seem set to tighten leaving the UK particularly exposed due to our lack of storage.

A certain company with Dutch production and UK gas storage should be doing very nicely over the coming weeks and months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/27/gas-prices-jump-as-putin-abandons-key-pipeline/

Thank you very much redwineday, that link worked!

Down to 75% already and gas for next summer already trading above next winters futures.... the EU is between a rock and a hard place.

aimo

Any chance you could post the text redwineday? The story is behind a paywall.

European natural gas futures have rebounded in the last week from €39 to €46/Mwhr driven by supply concerns. A transit deal between Russia and Ukraine expires next week and president Zelensky has signaled resistance to transiting Russian gas without guarantees that Russia won't profit from it to feed their war machine, good on him I say.

Forecasts for colder weather in Europe also adds to the mix... Several countries still rely heavily on Russian gas, Slovakia being one that is already seeking alternative arrangements.

Merry Christmas and a Happy new year to you all.

Why haven't they already would be my question DtP?

Either Dana don't want to sell, which I find unlikely, or Serica have realised they bought a rust bucket?

Either way, committing to Buchan Horst, and more recently Skerryvore and potentially Fynn Beauly seems to suggest that an offer for Dana's share of Triton seems unlikely.

aimo.

Cash flow should be looking healthier as we are (I hope) past the pinch point in our finances.

1. 900m Norwegian Kroner tax refund should be banked soon if not already.

2. Dutch TTF gas futures trading at €46/Mwh, near year highs.

3. UK gas futures trading at 115p/therm, near year highs.

4. 8% of UK gas used in November was from storage withdrawal, hopefully ours 😃

Hopefully our balance sheet strengthens from here on.

aimo

Cash flow should be looking healthier as (I hope) we are beyond the pinch point in our finances.

1. The tax refund of 900m Norwegian Kroner should be banked soon, if not already.

2. Dutch TTF currently €46/Mwh, in the first 6 months of the year it

Thanks for the links Winstanley,

Good news from South Korea, not sure how accretive it may be if approved.

The real kicker is Shingrix in China

"In the Chinese shingles vaccine market, Shingrix, a recombinant shot, is competing with a live vaccine manufactured by a local firm called Changchun BCHT Biotechnology, while other domestically developed candidates are in phase 3 or earlier-stage trials."

The CCP will ensure that Chinese vaccines have priority..... not good for us.

aimo

One of Labours 'milestones' says that at least 95% of electricity will be clean by 2030, with the other 5% coming from Gas.

A slight row back on their Zero carbon electricity by 2030 manifesto 'promise'

However, in November 2024 38% of our electricity came from gas and 27% from wind.

I expect plenty more 'adjustments' 're-alignments' and strategic re-assessments' in the years ahead.

aimo

One of Labours 'milestones' east 95% of electricity will be clean by 2030, with the other 5% coming from Gas.

A slight row back on their Zero carbon electricity by 2030 manifesto 'promise'