Member Info for Nlgb

Heights Capital, central to the Avacta saga for the past few years. Hope it takes a different direction here.

Koozer, if your question was genuine, the answer is 7.7 to 23 times the current SP.

Wyn,

🙄( eyes rolling, soon to be banned emoji),

I am not going to pick a fight on this. Nobody is targeted specifically. What I am saying is:

1) Many people’s (buying) behaviour is being influenced by social media nowadays and this board is a form of social media. To state that what is said on here does not affect the shareprice is untrue imo because, in the case of Avacta, this is read by more people than one would think. And to be fair, your (and indeed Touk’s) posts will probably make people think twice, which is not a bad thing at all.

2) Consistently negative posters’ motivations are more opaque than consistently positive (potentially over-optimistic) posters. Whilst some are genuine (just being cautious ), others CAN be sinister, which by no means mean that yours are. Sinister motivations could include trying to harm the company’s reputation or credibility (competitors, disgruntled ex-staff), hoping for it to fail (competitors, shorters).

Just trying to get a bigger picture of people’s behaviour and their impact on markets. Why do some companies trade 40-50% below their NAV whilst others trade at 30-40 times future earnings? Market sentiment, sometimes influenced by social media.

Enjoy the weekend

Touk,

I was mainly ranting about the “no impact on sp” statement. Because why do so called influencers get paid -sometimes crazy- money? Because there are people reading and following them in whatever they do or say, hence potential commercial benefits.

I do share some concerns about delays, comms (or absence of it) and indeed funding for Avacta. It is however easier to understand the motivations of rampers: making a few quick bucks for some, genuine confidence (with a dose of hope) in the science and thus future returns for others. It is less transparent for derampers (even when intelligent and respectful), in particular those who spend a lot of their time talking a share down in thousands of posts. Are they day-traders who may want to buy in a dip or shorters just wanting it to come down which is at the direct expense of others? Or other more sinister motivations? The latter is a general observation, not directed at someone in particular.

Imvho

Touk,

“I’m not trying to drive the SP down, nothing any of us post here (a part from maybe Miles), has any impact on the SP.”

1) We see this statement over and over, most times from the “negative” posters. So why are there people being paid (because there are, otherwise why would somebody spend soo much time talking a share down if not shorters?) to do this? Probably because there is data demonstrating that it does have an impact. Not all investors spend their days researching and today’s society just seems to function like that: the most daft people have millions of followers who take everything they say for real.. I can name a few.

2) A couple of years ago, when we had the TG group “private “ discussion, it was said that the TG group represented 15% of holdings. Avacta being probably the most discussed share on LSE, it is not unlikely that LSE users represent a similar or even bigger % of holdings. There are far more holders who are not active on these platforms but still read the msgs (I did myself for 3+years). You will probably say that they are stupid but so be it: some people do not have the time you guys put into it and maybe can lose a few pounds on what they know is a higher risk investment.

In short, these platforms do have an impact. Why would people bother reading (and writing for some..) the endless exchanges.

It would be interesting to understand people’s motivations in talking down a share. Are they just good samaritans trying to save people from losing their money? You don’t do that for 4-5 years in a row with 1000’s of posts do you? At some stage you give up warning people.. 😌

My 2 cents

Rightly so Darien, I’ve known the days of 1.45..

It really is a mystery why all of these holdings are barely valued. Think the group lacks the ambition to give SH returns and just hobbles on. Stuck in the doldrums.

Yet, the sp didn’t react on today’s news, which is disappointing as it means it was all build in already. The buyback has been stepped up considerably recently so management must be confident things will get better, but how/when? And than there is this £277k sell on the bell. All rather incomprehensible.

Not much of an impact from this RNS. Is it because there is little or no comms or just no interest from the public?

Ice, Tim,

Isn’t AIM a bit like many famous painters through history. It was too late for most of them when finally some people saw the value of their work.. hope the lth’s of today won’t be left empty handed once all the boxes are ticked.. just some food for thought.

That said, there may be an uplift in the pipeline for ONT, for which the guide has been raised to £2. That would bring in 50m+

Indeed, but that’s not going to move the needle to £1+ is it? More like 55-60p. Multiple upsides needed to shift the sentiment imho

The issue with IPO is that it’s portfolio is so wide spread that good news on one investment is easily wiped out by bad news (and there has been) on others. I’ve been here since the hype of 2021 so seriously in the red. What event is going to have a serious positive impact on the share price? Can’t see any..

And.. happy?

Maybe there isn’t, hence the sp dropped..

it seems that, like for most biotechs these days, the only time pi’s can hope for an uplift is ones a jv/to is confirmed.

In a nutshell, if a serious offer has been received to take a controlling share of 30%+ they would have to announce it and usually the board ends up giving a recommendation to reject/accept. There is much more to it obviously.

Wyn, agreed on that one.

If only we could use these bb’s to combine people’s expertise rather than throw mud, everybody would benefit. But it would mean people would have to reveal part of who they really are (occupation etc)

Utopic? yes I know

Touk,

Well, someone said not so long ago that it would not make a big difference , even if sp drops to 20p. If avacta fails, we’ll all lose, if it succeeds, nobody cares that it dropped to 20 p.

Wasn’t that you?

Wyn,

You should know that people are far more harsh/ rude on anonymous social media than if they would be face to face with the same person. It is why bullying -especially youngsters- is everywhere, including on this bb. Thought you would have noticed by now.

Hurst,

Re ceo worked for Novartis.

Not everybody leaves on good terms. Some companies do not wish to deal with ex-executives but may not be the case here. BP will all be aware. In any case, CC knows on which doors to knock when the time is right.

Trading update feels like typical corporate (bs) language to hide underperformance. Why sticking to the strategy when it clearly doesn’t pay off after 18-24 mths. We have seen a few times now that such or such big client is holding back spending: go and get other clients to replace them would be a normal ceo’s instruction. Not reassuring imvho. Hope there’ll be a turnaround at some stage.