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Maybe the latest analysts earning forecasts are to blame for the weakness in the share price over the past 2 days. S4 were forcast to make a small proft next year, they are now forecast to make a small loss. Having said that, next month could swing back in to a profit. Enclosed below.

2022
Revenue Oct £1.026............. Nov £1.027B
Earnings Oct £166m loss..... Nov £165.5m loss

2023
Revenue Oct £1.261B........... Nov £1.235B
Earnings Nov £1.5m gain......Nov £3m loss

2024
Revenue Oct £1.507B.......... Nov £1.470B
Earnings Oct £46m gain...... Nov £35m gain

WouldBGatsby... "Let us pause and ask one question - what premium would a buyer of this company have to pay for it now? My own view is that SMS would never sell out, but if the Grim Reaper were to swing his scythe, would his heirs and successors do so? You bet they would, maybe ony at a premium of 50% to the current SP. I think these considerations are active limiting factors at this juncture. So let us hope that SMS remains in good health for another decade."

Hi WouldBGatsby, in my opinion, for what its worth. I would agree that if the decision was entirely down to SMS I'm in agreement, I don't think that he would sell out. Not forgetting that he holds a golden share. I'm thinking that SMS will be more likely to push for a USA listing next year perhaps.

With the BOD setting the M&A equity share price at 425p per share for any future deals, I would think that it would be fair to say that the BOD have set their fair value at this price, so would be wanting a premium on top of 425p per share. It could be argued that the S4 share price was considerably higher in the summer of 2021. The company is doing very well, although you wouldn't know that by looking at the share price graph.

Keep the faith guys, S4 share price will come good/recover at some point going forward.

Pearls, I agree. I'm not sure how the market can justify todays 5.44% drop after such strong results yesterday. I think that SMS will be wanting a USA listing in 2023. Who could blame him? The London stock market is a joke to be quite honest.

Jmidland.... "If, as they are saying, we are going into recession with the US as well, companies might cut back on their spending including advertising. Some hedge fund recently went short here because of that."

Jmidland, if you were to listen to todays Q3 results presentation you would have heard Sir Martin Sorrell say that recession actually benefit S4 Capital. Yes indeed the hdge fund took a small 0.50% short out on S4 a few weeks ago when the S4 share price was trading around 170p to 180p. They are now sat on a loss.

All good here, S4 are still trading at a large discount. IMO.

SFOR.L
S4 Capital Ord Shs
Last Signal: STAY LONG
Last Pattern: NO PATTERN
Last Close:
210.0000
Change:
+6.2000
Percent change
+3.04%
Signal Update
Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY LONG. The previous BUY signal was issued on 08/11/2022, 3 days ago, when the stock price was 185.3600. Since then SFOR.L has risen by +13.29%.
Market Outlook
You may relax since our STAY LONG position is secure. The market action does not cast a serious doubt on the wisdom of going long.

https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=SFOR.L

Digital advertising group S4 Capital said on Monday that remained on track to meet its full-year objectives as it updated investors on its strong third-quarter performance.

S4 Capital said third-quarter billings were up 51% at £484.2m, while revenue was up more than 68% to £300.1m and gross pro?ts were 73% higher at £249.9m.

Year-to-date billings were up 46% at £1.3bn, while YTD revenue 63% higher at £746.5m, and like-for-like gross profits rose 64% to £625.2m.

The London-listed group also stated it was still trading in line with its full-year top line objective of 25% like-for-like gross profit/net revenue growth and its profitability objective of operational underlying earnings of roughly £120.0m, adding that it had seen "little negative impact" so far from the current macro political and economic situation.

Chairman Martin Sorrell said: "Despite the current macropolitical and economic gloom and slowing tech growth, our top-line momentum has been more than maintained in the third quarter and remains relatively strong into the fourth quarter.

"Given the reduction in global GDP growth rate forecasts for 2022 and 2023 and the likelihood of recession in some parts of the world, clients will be moving 'down the funnel', as we say, prioritising performance and activation, measurement of marketing return on investment and media mix modelling, which plays to our strengths. We believe this changing market environment will continue to offer significant growth opportunities given our client profile, relative size and disruptive model."

https://www.sharecast.com/news/small-caps-news/s4-capital-on-track-to-meet-fy-objectives-q3-revenue-and-profits-surge--11380446.html

“We have seen little negative impact so far in the remainder of 2022 from the current macro political and economic gloom,” the company said

S4 Capital PLC (LSE:SFOR) reported strong growth in the third quarter with billings of £484.2mln, up 51%, or 21% like-for-like, while revenue was up over 68% to £300.1mln and gross pro?t up 73% to £249.9mln, or 29% on a like-for-like basis.

S4 said it continued to trade in line with its top line objective for 2022 of 25% like-for-like gross profit/net revenue growth and its profitability objective of operational EBITDA of approximately £120mln.

“We have seen little negative impact so far in the remainder of 2022 from the current macro political and economic gloom,” the company said.

The digital advertising agency, run by Sir Martin Sorrell, said the growth in the third quarter re?ected the improved control of hiring across the company combined with an acceleration of revenues.

The impact of this change in emphasis was most marked in the content practice, which started to improve operational EBITDA significantly, S4 said.

The Data & Digital media practice was not as strong in gross profit/net revenue growth but continued to benefit from the uncertainty and the increase in the marketing index as a result of both Apple's decision around IDFA and Google's around deprecation of third party cookies.

Technology services continued to perform very strongly at all levels.

Sorrell, executive chairman, said: "Despite the current macro political and economic gloom and slowing tech growth, our top-line momentum has been more than maintained in the third quarter and remains relatively strong into the fourth quarter.“

“Operational EBITDA continues to progress in line with the revised target issued in July.”

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/998209/s4-capital-on-track-to-hit-2022-targets-after-strong-third-quarter-998209.html

The company reported its gross profit and net revenue reached £250 million in the three months to September 30, up 73% on a reported basis.

Sir Martin Sorrell’s digital advertising firm S4 Capital has enjoyed boosted profits, as the boss said its clients’ focus on performance amid forthcoming global recessions will “play to our strengths”.

The company reported its gross profit and net revenue reached £250 million in the three months to September 30, up 73% on a reported basis

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/s4-capital-enjoys-boosted-profits-as-it-eyes-up-more-whopper-clients-b1039667.html

Jefferies raises S4 Capital price target to 250 (170) pence - 'buy'

I'm hopeful that other brokers will follow suit in due course.

Oops, make that 8 reported "Whoppers" in our H1 results, not H2 results.

"Ten 'whoppers' are now in sight....."
Does this mean no new whoppers have actually been signed up since the Q2 results?"

Good morning WouldBGatsby, from memory S4 had 8 reported "Whoppers" in our H2 results. We now have 9 and 10 by year end. Potental for a further 14 whoppers have been identified. Looking very promising indeed.

S4 currently trading at only 1.4X ernings. Too cheap IMO.

Steven, S4 are currently predicted to make a £1.5m profit next year and a £46m profit in 2024.
I'm hopeful that net debt will fall next year onwards, based on what SMS says below, ruling out further expense of mergers in the short term. I think that this is good news short term, this protects shareholder value and basically SMS is saying that fair value is 425p per share. Very good strong Q3 results IMO.

SMS... "Given the Company's current market valuation, mergers or combinations are currently off the table, that is, unless merger or combination partners are prepared to accept equity values as part of their consideration of around 425p per share - as TheoremOne and XX Artists did. That was our share value before our recent challenges and more in line with the general market declines from our peak market capitalisation."

I wonder if GLG Partners are regretting taking out their recent 0.50% short in S4 Capital when the share price was around 170p. (now 213p) Why on earth anyone would short a company who share price was already down 76% on the year, knowing that the management is addressed their problems is beyond me. GLG Partners deserve all that they get. IMO.

The 209.20p gap now closed. Next gap @268.40p. Next week would be nice. Lol

I've been taking a look at the S4 Capital share price chart. We have a gap to fill @209.20p from 21/7/2022 & the next gap to fill would be @268.40p from 9/6/2022. Gaps usually get filled at some point. The share price is almost back to before the profit warning. Let's see if we can hold on to 200p, before our next leg up, hopefully on Monday.

Just to be clear, S4 Capital Q3 results will be announced at 07:00am on Monday 14th November.

Love him or loathe him, as some do, you have to give credit where its due, SMS does know his stuff. He's a proven winner and the main reason why I hold S4 Capital.

Manu....... "I will have a ' Battered Cod & Chips '- Friday !!!"

I'm looking forward to the day that you say that you will be ordering a haddock special. Lol

Mary.... "the billions spend on the US election ads are bound to filter through to the bottom line."

Yes agreed, good point Mary.

Morning WouldBGatsby, I'm not too concerned about the share price short term, like your good self. As we know the S4 share price can move up very quickly at the drop of a hat when it wants to.

Over the past few month S4 Capital have been trading between 1x to 1.2x earnings, which I might add is a very low valuation IMO for a growth company. Looking ahead to next years expected earings, if S4 can meet next years analysts earnings forecasts we would be looking at a share price of 268p @1.2x earnings. If we meet the forecasts, and the share price will look after itself. IMHO.

I'm of the opinion that breaching £2 will be the hard part of our recovery, once above we should gain traction with large institutions jumping back on board. Confidence should than be fully restored. IMHO.