Member Info for NigeCo

Lovelosses, to be fair mate, Jacob of JKR Investing does have a very good track record. I enclose a short video that shows his portfolio performance verses the SP500 index below. Very impressive IMO.

SP500 index +11.91%

Jacobs portfolio performance +28.75%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_SJp-sH7EA

Jacob mentions S4 Capital, amongst other stocks that are also dropping.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ie_zeyNgy2w&t=606s

"Without a bid the BT share price will continue to slide"

Rod, with respect its time to accept that there isn't going to be a takeover bid. I wish that there was too, jam today is better than maybe jam tomorrow. It's a pointless act keep banging the same drum. If we are lucky once the cap/ex for FTTP is finished in 2026 the share price may well start a recovery, we may if lucky see a share price of maybe 300p on a good day, that's if the British media lay off hitting BT with its big stick, their favorite past time. Until 2026/7 its best to just accept the inevitable, I have.

Agreed, 10% been purchased and still the share price drops.

Thanks BrokerNSmoke, I was just about to post, I stand corrected. Happy to be wrong with an extra 5% been purchased.

"Another 5 % holding 10 days ago"

1msn, I think that it's including the same holding mate, so only added an extra 767,110 shares.

"What multiples of Ebitda do they use?"

Allinittogether, Sir Martin didn't give any multiples, he said that you can do that yourself on what multiples are usually used. So I used 10X EBITDA . Cheers.

Someone just purchased £1.2M shares paying 64.263p.

Another video from Jacob of JKR Investing, Jacob briefly says that he had been working for 3 months to bring Sir Martin on his channel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdGbEtoRt9w

The new S4 Capital Net Asset Value is 142.260p.

2022 Year End NAV was 147.929p.

"If you've stuck with S4 Capital PLC (LSE:SFOR) thus far you might as well hang in for the long haul is the message from analysts at Citi."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1026956/s4-capital-investors-have-to-wait-for-storm-to-pass-says-us-bank-1026956.html

Latest 2023 analysts earnings forecasts for S4 Capital. I've included FY 2022 results. The positive is that the losses are falling from £159.634M 2022 to only £13M 2023. On track to move in to profit from 2024 & Net Cash position in 2025.

September 18........................... Full Year 2022

Revenue.........£1.102B..............£1.069B

EBITDA...........£109M.................£124.2M

Earnings........-£13.0M..............-£159.634M

FCF..................£57.1M...............£60.371

Net Debt.........£201M................£110.2M

Cash From Ops....£74.8M...............£78.262M

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2024 analysts earnings forecasts

September 18

Revenue...........£1.224B

EBITDA.............£149M

Earnings...........£51.8M

FCF....................£106.8M

Net Debt..........-£144M

Cash From Ops......£114.05M

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2025 analysts earnings forecasts

September 18

Revenue..............£1.389B

EBITDA................£194M

Earnings..............£77.4M

FCF.......................£125.5M

Net Cash..............£15.4M

Cash From Ops.....xxxxxxxx

SplungeGasket, morning mate, S4 Capital is still on track to report its first move in to profit next year, with debt falling away quite nicely, 2025 may well see S4 move in a Net Cash position. Of course that is only the current analysts forecasts. I intend holding on to my holding. Once the economy turns and it will at some point, so will the S4 share price hopefully sometime in 2024. In the meantime best not to keep watching the share price. JMO.

Volume today 127m, UT accounting for 97.4m, some large trades reported after close.

We need some good reassuring results on Monday 18th Sept or god help us. M/Cap down from over £5 billion to £540 million. Crazy.

I'm expecting the remainder of this year to be challenging, the perfect time to start the share buyback of 1% of shares between now and year end. I expect that SMS will discuss the future positively with S4 Capital expected to report its first profit next year 2024, with Net Debt reducing considerably, now that all past M&A is paid for in this financial year. Also S4 expected to be in a strong Net Cash position come year end 2025. Expect further talk of share buy backs and a possible first dividend in 2025.

Scallywag3, while I don't think that Drahi will be a forced seller of his 24.5% BT shareholding, he would probably sell other assets before BT given the choice. I also doubt that he can afford to make a bid for BT on his own. With the UK general election set for 2024, the window of opportunity is closing fast IMO. With an expected Labour government slams the door shut on a takeover. So IMO it comes down the Deutsche Telekom, how badly do they want to take on more debt? To add to their own mountain. I give it a 20% chance until year end 2023.

While I hope to be proved wrong, I think anyone waiting on a bid will be disappointed, myself included. So we could all be long term holders, another 3-4 years waiting, living in hope that one day BT gets its act together and that FTTP is going to be our savior.

Warren Buffett has just gone 93 last month 30/8/23, still going strong.

Comparing 2022 annual results, and the latest analysts forecasts below for 2023. The only negative is the increase in Net Debt that is related to M&A payments. On 29/3/2023 the day that S4 reporting 2022 annual results the share price closed down 3p @173.5p. Does the share price deserve to be trading @96.15p today? Down 77.35p 57.37%? When results will be better than 2022.

.........Forecast

Revenue +1.76%

Earnings +135.4%

EBITDA +14.07%

FCF +55.5%

Cash From Ops +9.1%

Net Debt +51.7%

SplungeGasket, I enclose below what the so called experts are predicting. IMO, if S4 Capital can meet these forecasts then I see no reason why the share price won't recover. What I would also say is S4 Capital have a strong management team not just SMS running things. Of course this is just my opinion. I have no intentions of selling at this low valuation. I intend holding until at least year end 2025.

Latest 2023 analysts earnings forecasts for S4 Capital. I've included FY 2022 results.

August 2......................... Full Year 2022

Revenue.........£1.088B............£1.069B

EBITDA..........£143M..............£124.2M

Earnings.......-£30.767M..........-£159.634M

FCF.............£106.8M............£60.371

Net Debt........£187M..............£110.2M

Cash From Ops...£85.733M...........£78.262M

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2024 analysts earnings forecasts

August 2

Revenue.........£1.198B

EBITDA..........£168M

Earnings........£31.067M

FCF.............£119.8M

Net Debt.......-£112M

Cash From Ops...£161.567M

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2025 analysts earnings forecasts

August 2

Revenue.........£1.389B

EBITDA..........£200M

Earnings........£51.467M

FCF.............£141.6M

Net Cash........£23.2M

Cash From Ops...£183.850M