Member Info for NigeCo

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_7AAhD1FBY

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiZxmV2WlPs

Wesley ter Haar, very impressive, he discusses AI.

Drahi was investigated by our government when he reached 18%, he was given the all clear, he then took advantage of this decision and increased his position further to 24.5%. You would expect that Drahi would have taken advice from the outset regarding the possibility of him taking control, so he's either been given some bad advice or he is pretty sure of the outcome. A billionaire doesn't spend billions without being sure of the outcome. Maybe he already has assurances from our government that they wouldn't block him. At the end of the day, more often than not, money talks. IMO.

Comparing 2022 annual results, and the latest analysts forecasts below for 2023. The only negative is the increase in Net Debt that is related to M&A payments. On 29/3/2023 the day that S4 reporting 2022 annual results the share price closed down 3p @173.5p. Does the share price deserve to be trading @92p today? Down 81.5p 61.4%.

...............Forecast

Revenue +1.76%

Earnings +135.4%

EBITDA +14.07%

FCF +55.5%

Cash From Ops +9.1%

Net Debt +51.7%

Verney, I use two websites. One site does say how many analysts, usually between 1&4, but it doesn't give each analysts opinion/figures. The other website doesn't disclose how many analysts. But both websites report the same figures, I always check both sites just to see if they match each other.

Hi Verney & Pearls, you both make valid points. Moving on to expected 2023 annual results, I would welcome your opinions.

Last year 2022 Net Debt increased from £18m to £110.2m with M&A accounting for £162.6m. This year 2023 Net Debt expected to increase to around £190m - £210m based on S4 Capitals figures. With M&A accounting for £102m.

So M&A costs total £264.6M. I think that if Net Debt comes in at £200M S4 will have done pretty well all thing considered.

2023 losses are expected to reduce from -£159.634m (2022) to -£30.767m based on latest analysts forecasts. By YE 2023 with all M&A will be fully paid, its not hard to see what's going to happen to the bottom line from 2024 on wards.

If analysts forecasts are indeed correct and I have no reason to doubt them, then S4 will move in to profit next year 2024 in the words of SMS Net Debt will reduce considerably now that all M&A payments have been paid for this year 2023.

I don 't understand why the market is valuing S4 Capital at this valuation £539M for a company who's revenue is over £1Bln its crazy IMO, unless the market knows something that we don't know, then S4 should be valued at least £1Bln.

Looking further out, analysts forecast that S4 will be in a Net Cash position in 2025. If S4 can manage to do this over the next 2 years and the share price isn't in the region of 400p, then I think I will give up investing.

Pearls.... "Don't get me wrong, these shares are cheap. But previously they were looked upon as a high growth stock, that impression was torn up with the most recent results.

Added to this, we have the curse of SMS's golden share, which combined with his age and poor health are clearly creating a no-invest position for many. "

Hi Pearls, don't you think that S4 will return to posting 20%+ results once the advertising industry recovers?

Regarding SMS golden ticket. He obviously issued himself this for a good reason, so that if he found himself having to defend a low-ball takeover offer he would have the power to stop someone taking what he's worked 7 years building up on the cheap.

Latest 2023 analysts earnings forecasts for S4 Capital. I've included FY 2022 results.

August 2.................................. Full Year 2022

Revenue.........£1.088B..............£1.069B

EBITDA...........£143M.................£124.2M

Earnings.......-£30.767M...........-£159.634M

FCF.................£106.8M..............£60.371

Net Debt.........£187M................£110.2M

Cash From Ops.....£85.733M...........£78.262M

------------------------------------------

2024 analysts earnings forecasts

August 2

Revenue.........£1.198B

EBITDA..........£168M

Earnings........£31.067M

FCF.............£119.8M

Net Debt.......-£112M

Cash From Ops...£161.567M

------------------------------------------

2025 analysts earnings forecasts

August 2

Revenue.........£1.389B

EBITDA..........£200M

Earnings........£51.467M

FCF.............£141.6M

Net Cash........£23.2M

Cash From Ops...£183.850

Just taking a look at the trades and volume today, I noticed that someone picked up 320,000 shares over 6 trades within 10 minutes this morning.

Ttratder....."Thanks, quick number crunch on book value and I get £1.46"

That sounds about right mate. I was the one that posted previously that the NAV was 148p, it was actually 147.929p. But since then there have been more shares issued. So 146p sounds about right, based on 2022 FY figures.

S4 Capital is expected to report its first profit in 2024.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/media/lse-sfor/s4-capital-shares/news/s4-capital-lonsfor-is-experiencing-growth-in-returns-on-capi

Further to add, SMS has a proven track record, he started WPP with a £1m shell company (just like he's doing at S4) and when he left after 33 years making WPP the worlds largest advertising company. WPP was worth a M/Cap of £16 BILLION. I think that he knows what he's doing.

Mrlong you should research what the latest analysts earnings forecasts for S4 Capital over the next two financial years. S4 predicted to report its first profit next year 2024, with Net Debt falling considerably (confirmed by SMS) after all M&A paid for this year. 2025, increase in profits, with an expected Net Cash position. Baron Investments recent July millions invested for a good reason, he points out what I've pointed out.

My price target based on analysts forecasts..... 400p by YE 2025.

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/s4-capital-lon-sfor-might-061913316.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALyaqQwxz62UYv_Ox40pFcel6H6NSlFSbdhLj2CMRYVNUXJdVp3w1yGtjVzGZZDf9f2QSF_Ko2ZHU9qyIiXI_GVAYYRS_-d9sAdgWBGJygi7gkOVBUr81PYQcU-BeCHYCec8pAcu36hOzABUq6GhqJjzy7yOra1KTGKYAEboUurA

"Smart for himself or his shareholders?"

Both.

How would shareholders feel if they had purchased S4 Capital shares at say 400p per share, some may well have paid a lot more than that, and WPP came in today with a low-ball offer priced at 130p per share.

Come on guys, can you not see that SMS is protecting his interests. He set S4 Capital up with a £1m shell company. S4 Capital valuation increased to being worth over £4 Billion. Today S4 Capital's valuation is only £500 million. If he hadn't protected what he built up from scratch since 2016, someone like a WPP could have picked S4 Capital up for less than £1 Billion. SMS would have done all the 7 years hard work and WPP would have taken advantage of that. So I would say that he's a smart guy.

After the selling pressure ended last time on 26th June 2023 the share price touched a low of 103.80p, 17 trading days later on 19th July S4 touched 157p. I'm not sure if this was related to the S4 Capital briefing regarding AI on 28th June.

I'm not sure why DT's CEO would warn the incoming BT CEO who won't take charge until start of 2024. If DT were going to make a move on BT. It makes little sense other than to think that DT won't be making a bid. The window of opportunity is closing the closer we get to a Labour government. The time to act is in this year. My percentage of there being a bid has now decreased from 30% to 20%. I hope to be proved wrong.

Baron Investments currently sat on large S4 paper losses.

Discusses S4 Capital

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzVA7Czf1HQ