Member Info for NigeCo

Baron Investments

@baroninvestment

Just in #SFOR and encouraged by recent director participation, almost £500k. Shares will go bonkers on any recovery green shoots.

Baron Investments

@baroninvestment

yes, first purchases of real size for considerable time.

With the outlook looking more favourable, together with potential for a considerable amount of FCF used for share buybacks in H2 that can only help recover the weak share price towards a fair valuation.

Simply Wall Street currently have a fair valuation of 183p.

"It's been painful so I hope we get rewarded."

Hang in there Joe, patience will be rewarded. I'm quietly confident to say that we are past the worst, with blue skies ahead.

S4 up on large volume of shares traded, always a good sign. Currently 3m, daily average is 2.07m.

I'm also of the opinion that the long term investor will outperform the day trader. The trader trades the trading range, but at some point the share price break's out of this range. The trading having sold out at the top of the range then either has to buy back at a higher price or he potentially misses the boat. Take Wildtiger, he exited S4 around 46p 6 days ago, he's since commented..... "Theres zero catalyst for this to go up in the short term. No point to buy until October at least" in an attempt to talk the share price down. He failed, the share price continues to breakout. That is what happens to traders, they may get their timing right many times, playing the trading range, but we can all see what can happen on a breakout.

Short squeeze anyone?

NorthernMuppet, we've had false dawns before, but this rally feels different to me. With 3 directors buying almost £480k worth, gives me confidence. Time will tell.

56.54 GBX +9.54 (20.29%) past 5 days

"Houston, we have lift off"

"@NigeCo, I suppose my outlook on what'll happen to the market today turned out to be what I said today's Labour win would be - a non-event!!"

GoCPI, you was on the money.

"Great move from SFOR this week and who knows, if US rates start coming down and there is a high probability of that in September after today shiite June NFP data, the bottom in ad agency spend may well be H1 2024. Come on SFOR - make us longs plenty of money. ;-)"

Reading between the lines, there's probably a good reason why 3 former directors have chosen now to purchase close to £840k worth of shares between them. After all they will have a far better understanding of how the company is currently performing than any of us. This bodes well, it also sends a message to the market. The last time directors purchased shares in S4, not on this level I might add, just under 2 years ago the share price took off shortly after I purchased. Could history be about to be repeat itself? I hope so. If SMS was to make a purchase, now that would make a statement.

"This stock again surrounded by shorters.. Therefore this will be only going down. I dont know why you been wasting time on unfounded good news about media monks and other rubbish etc.."

Only a week ago 28 May we had the above comment, you have to laugh....

This week sees the best weekly share price gain of 11.65p since week commencing 30/10/2023 when the share price increased by 11.90p. Looking forward to shorters trying to close out next week.

Good weekend all.

"Does anyone know what a Stagwell merger could mean for a S4 shareholder?"

I've just been looking at Stagwells current M/Cap $1.8B or £1.41B. I think that Stagwell would have to offer a 50% - 50% joint merger valuing S4 at 233p per share, maybe that would appeal to S4 management & shareholders, making the combined company much larger and give S4 a much needed USA listing. According to the March 22 WSJ report Sorrell rebuffed Stagwell's offers so far because they undervalued the company and he didn’t view Stagwell as a good strategic fit with his firm. We may need the S4 share price to recover over 100p for this to have potential. I for one would be happy with this deal.

Large trade now showing @16:50pm....1,675,596

Potentially shorts closing, or directors buying?

I asked Baron Investments the following question on Twitter this morning..... I enclose his reply below.

NigeCo......Any takeover news regarding S4 Capital?

Stagwell Group share price shot up yesterday, they have previously made offers for S4.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Baron Investments

@baroninvestment

Not seen any aside of last updates on wires.

Good to see no worked sellers < 50p and some huge prints today not showing yet (possibly shorts, directors). True volume 6.9m with these at the top: STFL 2.3m, DOWG 1.9m, JEFF 1.5m.

Large director activity increasing confidence (and causing market to hold a bit tighter perhaps!). Any rns recovery and 75-100p in a flash.

"Does anyone know what a Stagwell merger could mean for a S4 shareholder?"

Just taking a look at a few current valuations regarding S4 Capital.....

Intrinsic Valuation (base case) 199.51p

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (base case) 146.88p

Relative Valuation (base case) 252.13p

IMO, considering that S4 Capital total invested capital to date stands at £1.1B.... Minus Net Debt, I'm taking the average of the expected Net Debt by year end £190m - £150m = £170m

£1.1B - £170m = £930m Dividend by total number of outstanding current shares in issue 600,200,976 = 146.88p per share.

I don't think that an offer of 146p per share would be successful, considering a lot of the merged companies strike price was @400p plus. Maybe if a deal started with a 2 ? With SMS holding a golden share, he holds all the cards.

Large UT @447,979.

Unfortunately no follow through today in the share price, closing up 0.60p 1.23% @49.34p. Disappointing.

"Thats some spread 7 %"

Agreed, but the buy trade was for only 2 shares.

GoCPI..... "the market has more or discounted the fact that Labour will be in power come Friday."

Yes, I would like to think so, but knowing this market any excuse will do. Hope I'm wrong.

I'm expecting a large market sell off on Friday if or should I say when Labour are elected in to power. Labour aren't usually good for stock markets, tax rises ect. JMO.

Bnvestments

@baroninvestment

#SFOR S4 Capital Directors finally wade in with some large purchases, almost £500k. Very long time coming, joined them!

S4 Capital PLC has announced that Oro en Fools B.V., jointly owned by former Executive Directors and PDMRs Wesley ter Haar and Victor Knaap, acquired 1,000,000 ordinary shares at a price of £0.4531 per share. The transaction, with a total value of £453,100, took place on July 1, 2024, and is in compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation. This significant purchase reflects confidence from the top management in the company’s performance and future.

https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/s4-capital-executives-firm-buys-shares