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'How much would any predator bidder pay for performance that has yet to be achieved , or for book valuations before a proper assessment of them ???'

In S4 Capitals case, it has already proved it once what it can achieve. Can it prove it again? At the moment the market doesn't think that it can, hence the low share price valuation. So what valuation do you put on it, if you want to acquire S4?

Was valued at £5bln.............Today at £258m

Morning Joe, yes S4 certainly tries your patience. Have to look further forward 2025/26/27/ I could go on. Time will tell.

One slight positive is the updated analysts earnings forecasts for 2025 is for S4 Capital to report its first move in to profit of £1,769m, previous forecast was a loss of £2.631m. I won't hold my breath, S4 have a nasty habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

@baroninvestment

Added to #SFOR S4 Capital on this yuck open at 39p. In for 0.65% equity now. Will be materially higher further out and happy to be contrarian on this.

RW, I agree, I enclose below the comment I made on ADVFN 14th May. Unless someone agrees to a more realistic valuation then management and most importantly Sorrell will send them packing. If analysts earnings forecasts are to be believed then years 2025 & 2026 should be recovery years for S4. Time will tell.

I think that Stagwell would have to offer at least a 50% - 50% joint merger valuing S4 at £1.5bln or 257p per share, maybe that would appeal making the combined company much larger and give S4 a USA listing. Although, according to the March 22 WSJ report Sorrell rebuffed Stagwell's offers so far because they undervalued the company and he didn’t view Stagwell as a good strategic fit with his firm. Don't rule out private equity firm New Mountain who also have been showing interest according to the WSJ report.

“All of the big groups will have been circling one way or another,” said Dudley. “S4C would undoubtedly bring new capabilities and expertise, but I don’t think this would be the main driver.”

"According to Green Square partner Barry Dudley, any move to merge with S4 Capital would be focused on growing scale and take the resulting company to around 22,000 people, placing it on a similar size to that of Havas, another rumored suitor for Martin Sorrel’s empire. Sorrell has dismissed the offers saying there had been “no credible takeover approaches”.

“All of the big groups will have been circling one way or another,” said Dudley. “S4C would undoubtedly bring new capabilities and expertise, but I don’t think this would be the main driver.”

Full article...... https://archive.is/CSHpD

Slight reduction in shorts. -0.10% @1.69%. The true figure could be higher, with regard anything below 0.50% not disclosed as I'm sure most of us already know.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BFZZM640/

Large trade reported as a buy @16:43:33 for..... 2.45m

S4 Capital's largest shareholders Bloomberg courtesy of RackersTheDon, a poster over on ADVFN discussion board.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgrtsjZC/SFOR-ownership.png

Yes the only cash payment remaining for past M&A is just £1m, payable next financial year. So its likely that Net Debt may well have peaked @£206m. With management predicting that Net Debt will be between £150m to £190m for this financial year.

Stments

@baroninvestment

Had a lot of Qs about #SFOR dipping further. Look it's a volatile share and the company remains out of favour. Shares were 65p a couple of weeks back though and now 47p on no market updates.

I am playing for long term recovery with 0.6% ownership, seeing scope for a multi-bagger but it will take time. Margins of 10-11% last year but the company is convinced it deliver on 20% objectives. New appointments in the business (Chief Growth Officer(!), Chief Operating Officer) hopefully positively impact. Anticipating Q2 to be similar net rev trajectory to Q1 so therefore down for H1 but that's already in price, expected. Comps ease H2 and business is very much weighted to this period so I'm not expecting any forthcoming distribution but there's an outside chance here for the 19th. There's 11m shares borrowed (>0.5%) so any covering or positives (forecast momentum is what we want above all else) would see the shares surge (drab expectations currently 6x p/e next year). A reduction in finance costs as interest rates reduce flows through with its floating arrangement at EURIBOR + 3.75%. Any BOE cuts ahead therefore really welcomed!!

For a company that has only been trading for 6 years having spent £1.1bln on M&A 31 companies, to be only £206m in debt has done pretty well with knock out growth. To go from 2018 revenue of £94.2m to 2023 £1.011bln is pretty good by anyone's standards. Net Debt expected to reduce this financial year to between £190m to £150m.

S4 Capital doesn't deserve to be trading at such a discounted valuation. Results going forward should help resolve this. S4 is a £1bln company, priced today @296m its a crazy valuation IMO. The main reason is down to low liquidity on the London stock exchange, I've watched trades daily, small amounts of trades using as little as 30,000 shares can take the share price down 5-6%. I've said for years now S4 Capital is trading on the wrong stock exchange, it should be on the Nasdaq.

The London stock exchange is finished, who in their right mind would IPO on LSE.

Baron Investments

@baroninvestment

Heavy pullback in #SFOR of late, celebrating profitability too soon! Probably one to keep eye on again, updates later this month.

Concious of heavy director participation lately, let’s see. #S4Capital

12:26 PM · Sep 5, 2024

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Spot on Redwinday, it was reported in the WSJ that Stagwell had made offers, with one said to be around $700m or 96p per share. Sorrell said that he had received offers that was not credible. Weeks ago Sorrell was asked what he valued S4 at, he gave his valuation based on 10X & 20X EBITDA minus about £200m Net Debt = £800m to £1.8bln. 130p - 293p per share. Sorrell holds all the cards with his golden share. I very much doubt that S4 will be taken out on the cheap. Sorrell hasn't worked 6 years setting S4 up for nothing.

It looks like the M&G 4.5m purchase was 31 May

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/sfor/ownership

Its also been reported on 31 Aug

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/sfor/ownership

WPP up 4%, S4 flat.

@11am according to ADVFN data....

Buy Volume 452,494.... Sell Volume 252,087....Unknown Volume 47,990

Share price down 0.96p 1.76%

One large purchase for 300,000 shares @55.0p

A nice 250k buy trade.

Buy volume 287,142..... Sell volume 318,577

The share price can trade at whatever value the market wants to put on it. The only valuation that counts is the one that is in charge, Sorrell.

Sorrell's valuation is based on 10X & 20X EBITDA minus about £200m Net Debt = £800m to £1.8bln. 130p - 293p per share. Sorrell has also said that the share price will recover, but it will probably take a couple of years. He's the one to listen to, no one else. Love him, or loath him, he knows his stuff.

Https://fintel.io/so/gb/sfor/vanguard-tax-managed-funds-vanguard-developed-markets-index-fund-admiral-shares